What is the future of 100 mile EVs? Leaf, Focus, eGolf?

[Ampster]

Back to the original question, California may be a unique market with its CARB regulations. We have a number of low cost compliance cars like the Smart ED and the Fiat 500e. They are the perfect compliment to our Model X in our little beach town. which offers free EV charging and free two hour parking in the commercial district. There are a lot of parking spaces available for these cars that I would never park my Tesla.

 

[rw86347]

I used to live in China and when I would read western meeting about the pollution in Beijing, while looking out my window at Beijing things didn't seem to align. Recently I looked up the pollution per person which only seems fair. It ends up that Germans produce more twice the pollution as a Chinese person.

 

[xmetal]

I love my Leaf but am going to kick that little bugger to the curb the instant I can get my Model 3. It's great for around town but it's impossible to get rid of the ICE with such a limited range. The Tesla + superchargers will probably put my ICE car into use just a couple times a year.

Resale on the >100mi EV is going to go through the floor, so if you want a car to go around town in that you can buy for the cost of a Big Mac, just wait a few years.

 

[Canuck]

I used to live in China and when I would read western meeting about the pollution in Beijing, while looking out my window at Beijing things didn't seem to align. Recently I looked up the pollution per person which only seems fair. It ends up that Germans produce more twice the pollution as a Chinese person.

Looking out your window can be deceptive when it comes to measuring pollution. Similar arguments were made about LA in the 70's, even though the smog was very visible, on certain days, and with certain angles, it looked just fine. So some said not to worry. Good thing the legislators thought otherwise.

Chinese population: 1.5 billion
German population: 80 million

I would have thought the Germans produced way more than twice the pollution per person given the differences in standard of living. But given your 2 to 1 ratio that's a ton of pollution.

Photos of Smoggy 1970s America

China is going through what the US did in the 1970's. However, there are some positive signs that changes are being sought.

Personally, I think we're circling the drain as a society, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't make efforts to change, for our children and future generations.

 

[rw86347]

I think you are right on, they are going through growing pains. However I usually only saw one day a year that would look like the picture in your link. Western media would save those images because they were sensational. Last summer I spent a month in Beijing. What was shocking was how much worse the air pollution was back in Colorado when I got home.

Currently, China is building 30 new Gen 3 nuclear reactors. These will make a HUGE difference when they are done. Mean while we will continue to burn coal and natural gas.

At some point China needs to tear down the communist era Coal boilers.

 

[RFernatt]

I'm happy with my 1 year old Leaf. It was really pretty inexpensive given the rebates/incentives and tax credit (about $16K with 0% financing). I charge it about every 5 days, so it doesn't need to do a lot of distance, but there is the occasional borderline trip that forces me to take the ICE just in case since there is no charging infrastructure in WV.

Resale values will continue to drop on the 1st gen EVs as the long range models become more accessible, but I believe there will still be a market for them and I'm hoping that OEMs or third parties will develop battery upgrades to extend their usefulness and usable life, but I won't hold my breath. Nissan could certainly garner some goodwill by offering an inexpensive, model year agnostic upgrade for the Leaf that could make it a solid 100 mile car even in winter conditions (probably need at least a 40Kwh battery).

The M3 is sharp, but being on the tall side, I really don't care for sedans, especially of the crawl into/out of variety and am waiting for the Y as my first Tesla, presuming there is reasonable access to service at that time. That is one thing that lead me to a Leaf. It was the only model with readily available local sales and service.

So, there are multiple factors that influence a purchase decision, range being important, but not necessarily the most important one for all buyers.

 

[Topher]

I used to live in China and when I would read western meeting about the pollution in Beijing, while looking out my window at Beijing things didn't seem to align. Recently I looked up the pollution per person which only seems fair. It ends up that Germans produce more twice the pollution as a Chinese person.

The question isn't pollution created per person, it is pollution inhaled by each person. Twice as many people inhaling only one and half times as much pollution is three times the problem.

[yes, people unfairly blame China.]

Thank you kindly.

 

[Zythryn]

I'd buy a 100 mile EV today, if Tesla made it

I suspect 100 mile EVs will do just fine.
Not great, but they will do fine.
Probably even better as some people people get into the 200 mile EVs and find out they don't need all that range.

 

[Topher]

Currently, China is building 30 new Gen 3 nuclear reactors.

More importantly, they are doubling their capacity of making solar panels every 18-24 months. Think about what that sort of exponential growth rate did for computers. Which year will it be when China makes more solar panels than the world used in power the previous year? Do the math yourself, you won't believe me if I tell you.

Thank you kindly.

 

[rw86347]

More importantly, they are doubling their capacity of making solar panels every 18-24 months. Think about what that sort of exponential growth rate did for computers. Which year will it be when China makes more solar panels than the world used in power the previous year? Do the math yourself, you won't believe me if I tell you.

Thank you kindly.

I don't think we will get exponential growth, but I do think it is possible to drop the cost by a factor of 4 and increase the energy capacity by a factor of 50%.

 

[RubberToe]

More importantly, they are doubling their capacity of making solar panels every 18-24 months. Think about what that sort of exponential growth rate did for computers. Which year will it be when China makes more solar panels than the world used in power the previous year? Do the math yourself, you won't believe me if I tell you.

Thank you kindly.

Try me.

 

[EVCollies]

More importantly, they are doubling their capacity of making solar panels every 18-24 months. Think about what that sort of exponential growth rate did for computers. Which year will it be when China makes more solar panels than the world used in power the previous year? Do the math yourself, you won't believe me if I tell you.

Thank you kindly.

Wiki thinks solar will be the world's largest source of electricity by 2050, but will only represent 27%.

Growth of photovoltaics - Wikipedia

 

[Topher]

I don't think we will get exponential growth.

ARE GETTING. We are getting exponential growth in solar PV. More to the point the doubling time is in the couple of year time frame.

China installed 15GW in 2015, (for a total of 43GW) an increase of 53%.

The United States may want to go backward to the previous century, burning coal; but China doesn't.

Thank you kindly.

p.s. I beg you, do the math yourself. Doubling every two years can be simulated by multiplying by 1.4 each year.
15GW * 1.4 = 21GW in 2016
21GW * 1.4 = 29.4GW in 2017
...

 

[rw86347]

Currently solar cells are at 25% efficiency. Mathematically we can't have two more doubling of efficiency, in fact I doubt we can have one. 50% efficient is really really good. If you really want to make a difference drop the price in half and reduce regulations. Today 75% of solar costs are soft costs like labor and permits. That is really really sad. Even if solar cells were free it would cost $20,000 to install!

 

[Topher]

Currently solar cells are at 25% efficiency. Mathematically we can't have two more doubling of efficiency, in fact I doubt we can have one.

Production! Not efficiency.

Thank you kindly.