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What is the timeframe and scheduling for everything!?

Discussion in 'Model S: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by zanderf, Nov 25, 2012.

  1. zanderf

    zanderf New Member

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    Hey everybody. I am reservation number 13,927. I made the reservation on November 14th. When should I expect to design my Model S and submit it for production? When should I expect to actually get the car? Maybe also list your timetables and experience! Thanks!



     
  2. efusco

    efusco Moderator - Model S & X forums

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    That's all pretty hard to say right now. I believe around Res. 9000 +/- have gotten their "Time to Build" emails. But exactly how far ahead Tesla is going to send those out for later reservation holders is unclear. If I had to guess, I'd say that by then end of the year you'd get that emails, particularly if They continue on their current pace of increasing production and successfully hit their 400/wk target by the end of the year.

    There's around a 5-10% cancellation rate right now as well to factor in. I'll leave it to others who've done more analytic estimates for delivery time, but middle of 2013, maybe 3rd quarter seem realistic.
     
  3. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Active Member

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    Sometime between this Christmas and next Christmas, but closer to next Christmas, but definitely not before Valentine's Day, however, I would think before Hallowe'en, but go ahead on your planned March Break vacation - Sept 9th, 2013.

    Let me know if I was close. :biggrin:
     
  4. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

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    I think you're mistaken. That's the schedule for my X.
     
  5. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    I'm right at the bubble for getting my car delivered this year (P1635). For sake of conservatism, let's say that through P1500 gets delivered this year. If Tesla is at a 20,000/year rate next year, then by July 1 they'd have delivered another 10,000; given a ~10% cancellation rate, that gets through about P12,600.

    SO: delivery for you is probably July 2013.

    BUT: Tesla may operate at higher rates; Musk has stated that 20,000 is a minimum, not a maximum. So, you may get your earlier.

    You should probably get your "Ready to Build" email about 3-4 months prior to your expected delivery date, so figure ~March 2013. Though, again, maybe earlier if Tesla is building faster or wants better visibility about its order book.
     
  6. felixtb

    felixtb RsEU502,Sp+14274,XpEUSig4

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    when you in America estimate deliveries for later reservation holders you always only include the American reservation numbers and tend to forget that there are a whole bunch of Canadian Ps and EU sigs and Rs and Ps and Asian ditto.... that will start to be produced in early 2013 as well......... which definitely pushes a 10000+ reservation further out than you are letting them believe....


    tesla only has one factory to produce all cars in for the whole world...... not to forget.
     
  7. Laumb

    Laumb smrtass.

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    When I put my deposit down in mid-October "most people" told me to expect a 10-12 months before delivery. Sent an e-mail to Tesla, who anticipated a 12-14 months delivery.
    Considering that, I have take the better halves of those and quesstimated mine to arrive in 12 months from mid-October. So, hoping I will get my electric ride in October 2013..
     
  8. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    Guilty as charged. It will be interesting to see how Tesla apportions its 2013 production across the three major geographies (US, CN, EU).

    The lefty EU Sigs clearly will have priority, once they are homologated, and the EU R's ought to follow promptly; that's not more than 600 cars, or 1.5 weeks' production. (Presumably the RHD EU Sigs and Rs will be further delayed.) Canadian Sigs should be 2012 cars, but the relatively few CN Rs will then go out early in 2013 (?). After that point, it would seem rational to deliver production cars so as to keep the sequence of deliveries approximating the sequence of orders, which is easier to do for Canada than for the EU--batch delivery for the EU clearly has substantial economies of scale.

    SO: probably add at least one and possibly two months to my prior estimate for P13,927.
     
  9. felixtb

    felixtb RsEU502,Sp+14274,XpEUSig4

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    yes interesting indeed. I think you are right about batch production and deliveries. when the full rampup is finished there must also be certain economies of scale to do like colors and specs. in smaller batches on the production line. I wonder in what frequencies......... probably two batches per week to not get sequencing too out of phase.......
     
  10. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    I was thinking more of EU batches, CN batches, and US batches. The homologation differences are probably more telling than paint colors in production, but even more importantly, Tesla will want to arrange for a big chunk of cargo space on ocean freighters to get cars to the EU.
     
  11. felixtb

    felixtb RsEU502,Sp+14274,XpEUSig4

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    Yes I understod that but I also think that they will start to batch things in general to have a smoother flow through the factory otherwise they will be forced to delay massively for certain customers depending on where the customer is located or what options (homologation or other) that customer has...... And that is something manufacturers in general try to avoid.. happy customers are repeat customers and all that

    But this thread is not for this discussion so lets get it back on track!
     

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