What other tech stock to consider?

[ammulder]

I don't have anything much to add, but this seems like a good discussion for this thread.

Home 3D printers can be awesome (I have a side gig involving 3D printing terrain for D&D), but they require a LOT of TLC. I'm sure some of the original hype envisioned them turning into HP LaserJets that everyone could buy and anyone could operate -- and they're nowhere close. I'm not convinced it's impossible to create an automated, reliable, safe 3D printer -- surely Elon's "first principles" thinking could make some progress here -- but nobody's come close yet.

So if you give up on the mass market, I would expect a lot of the potential company/stock gains to go away too.

Sure, it could be huge for manufacturing. There was an article recently on 3D printing metal parts for the military -- don't need to bring spare parts to the front lines if you can print them on demand there, and all that.

But as far as I know, it's always more expensive to 3D print a part than to mass-produce it. So it's great for R&D (way faster than repeated design and casting and testing or whatever), great for low-volume-critical-need type parts like maybe that military scenario, great for customization (3D print a dashboard with your Tesla's name written in, or something)... but that sounds like a lot of niche stuff. I'm sure there will be successful companies there, maybe a military-industrial winner, but not like HP or Tesla where you have to work to think of people to exclude from the potential market.

 

[bxr140]

But as far as I know, it's always more expensive to 3D print a part than to mass-produce it.

It is hard to imagine that ever changing for volumes in the hundreds of thousands let alone the millions. As you note additive manufacturing's [current] strength is niche/low volume applications where the benefit extends beyond per-unit recurring cost. Flip side, it does seem reasonable to imagine a world where AM could eventually maximize the value proposition over thousands and maybe even tens of thousands of units, when you factor in non-recurring cost, spin-up schedule, inventory, logistics, waste, etc.

For example, while it might not make sense to have a machine lineside in the Toyota Corolla plant to print that gizmo on demand, there could be a point where it makes sense on the Model S production line? While it might always make sense for Costco to carry a bunch of tires of various sizes and types in inventory, maybe there's a place for a [currently magic] AM tire-making machine in your local repair shop?

I also think there may be something in the DIY/direct economy that could be tapped (similar to how folks leverage YouTube, Instagram, etc. to generate revenue--I'm thinking Etsy on steroids), though my non-economist gut feel is that there's not a unicorn-startup-like amount of growth potential. Beyond a fairly limited market reach, there's always the age old problem where margin selling things will always be less than margin selling services.

 

[ammulder]

I also think there may be something in the DIY/direct economy that could be tapped (similar to how folks leverage YouTube, Instagram, etc. to generate revenue--I'm thinking Etsy on steroids), though my non-economist gut feel is that there's not a unicorn-startup-like amount of growth potential. Beyond a fairly limited market reach, there's always the age old problem where margin selling things will always be less than margin selling services.

The problem with the marketplaces for 3D-printed goods is that the cost of the printer, maintenance, and raw material makes the final product expensive enough. But when you add the human time needed to manage the printing process, it gets absurdly expensive. Unless you're looking for a small, one-off item (necklace or valentine or something), you pretty quickly come to the conclusion that it would be cheaper to buy a printer and print stuff yourself. Even if you wouldn't be good at that and you know you wouldn't be good at that, it's hard to convince yourself to pay way more to avoid it.

But, all that said, I'm sure Elon will be sending 3D printers to Mars instead of a crapload of spare parts.

If someone creates a habitat with rover and oxygen-making and rocket-fuel-making machinery that all uses 3D-printable parts, there could be a nice business there.

 

[Cosmacelf]

OK guys, have I got a good one for you! This company is making high performance electric outboard and inboard power trains for boats for sale to existing boat manufacturers. They are tiny (14 employees. OK, really tiny). AFAIK, they have very little in the way of competition. They are looking to go public soon, and filed their F-1 (they are a Canadian company) on July 9th. Which means it'll be a month or two before they do go public (if they do).

You can read their F-1 here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1813783/000110465920082428/tm2021376d2_f1.htm

You can read about their technology starting on page 21.

This is a development stage company. While they have revenues, all they are currently doing is selling custom boats with another company's outboard electric motor. By doing so in the last couple of years, they have found that the overall system isn't very efficient. They believe by creating their own powertrain they can increase overall efficiency by a lot (like 80% or so). They have signed non-binding LOIs with boat OEMs to buy their powertrains when they finish development.

This is akin to buying Tesla before Tesla finished developing their Roadster. Except that the market is smaller. But still plenty big enough to propel this IPO. No doubt high risk since these guys could easily fall flat on their faces.

Company web site is here, but the prospectus is much more interesting: Vision Marine Technologies - 100% electric boats | Official Website

 

[bxr140]

The problem with the marketplaces for 3D-printed goods is that the cost of the printer, maintenance, and raw material makes the final product expensive enough. But when you add the human time needed to manage the printing process, it gets absurdly expensive. Unless you're looking for a small, one-off item (necklace or valentine or something), you pretty quickly come to the conclusion that it would be cheaper to buy a printer and print stuff yourself. Even if you wouldn't be good at that and you know you wouldn't be good at that, it's hard to convince yourself to pay way more to avoid it.

Couple things:

1. Agree that the current state of 3d printing--especially hobby level stuff--is not the right solution. I'm looking farther forward to a point where AM could be the cost winner with ~thousands of units over more traditional manufacturing.

2. Even today, AM can actually win the 'human time' race. In my field, AM can be used to create complex single parts to replace complex assemblies that require human labor. That's beyond the various performance benefits from the AM part that manifest as cost savings.

3. Don't underestimate the laziness of consumers. Nobody is going to buy a machine to do A Thing unless they really want to get in the weeds of doing The Thing. Most people just want the Gizmo that is a result of The Thing.

 

[Ocelot]

OK guys, have I got a good one for you! This company is making high performance electric outboard and inboard power trains for boats for sale to existing boat manufacturers. They are tiny (14 employees. OK, really tiny). AFAIK, they have very little in the way of competition. They are looking to go public soon, and filed their F-1 (they are a Canadian company) on July 9th. Which means it'll be a month or two before they do go public (if they do).

You can read their F-1 here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1813783/000110465920082428/tm2021376d2_f1.htm

You can read about their technology starting on page 21.

This is a development stage company. While they have revenues, all they are currently doing is selling custom boats with another company's outboard electric motor. By doing so in the last couple of years, they have found that the overall system isn't very efficient. They believe by creating their own powertrain they can increase overall efficiency by a lot (like 80% or so). They have signed non-binding LOIs with boat OEMs to buy their powertrains when they finish development.

This is akin to buying Tesla before Tesla finished developing their Roadster. Except that the market is smaller. But still plenty big enough to propel this IPO. No doubt high risk since these guys could easily fall flat on their faces.

Company web site is here, but the prospectus is much more interesting: Vision Marine Technologies - 100% electric boats | Official Website

Thanks for sharing. Was just wondering today, why there are so few electric boat options afterwatching some people bsurf behind the boat for a while.

I wonder why they are going public? Seems early with primary plan to sell to thosose that build the boat, and having no purchase orders. Gonna watch this for a bit. Thanks again.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Thanks for sharing. Was just wondering today, why there are so few electric boat options afterwatching some people bsurf behind the boat for a while.

I wonder why they are going public? Seems early with primary plan to sell to thosose that build the boat, and having no purchase orders. Gonna watch this for a bit. Thanks again.

Why public? Because they can. EV is hot right now. But I agree, in general, it would behoove them to raise private capital and get further along. The problem with raising public money right now is that they have one shot to get it done. If they falter, their stock price will tank and they won't be able to do a secondary offering. They are then in the ugly world of PIPEs. Which is raising private capital, but with all the complexities of raising public money. Actually, just being a public company is horrible due to all the reporting requirements. Which is why you generally don't want to be one until you get to a certain size and can absorb all those extra costs.

At least they are trying to do it the correct way which is actually doing an offering rather than those reverse mergers into public shells (which, if you just assume they are all pump and dump operations, you won't be wrong too many times).

 

[ammulder]

Even today, AM can actually win the 'human time' race. In my field, AM can be used to create complex single parts to replace complex assemblies that require human labor. That's beyond the various performance benefits from the AM part that manifest as cost savings.

Here's an interesting one:

Porsche Found a Way to 3D-Print Lightweight Pistons That Add Even More Horsepower

 

[hershey101]

Has anyone looked into the $SMART stocks (Seeking Alpha term): $SQ, $MTCH, $AYX, $ROKU and $TTD...

I know a few people have invested in $SQ on the forms...

$MTCH has a high-flying valuation but they seem to be building a nice moat around their business, and the stay-at-home world we have has accelerated the whole online-dating situation with many more people signing up for it. I'm just not sure if that business model is sustainable, as they have no lifetime recurring revenues from a customer, and they always have to go out and acquire more customers to fuel growth. At the same time, in places like India, China, South America/Africa etc. I think online dating hasn't yet caught on. If they can cater to these markets, they might have a very profitable road ahead of them.

$AYX and $ROKU are probably the most intriguing options. I'm a big fan of the space $AYX is in, and $ROKU is quickly becoming one of those companies where the product is synonomous with the actual catagory of devices.


These along with the big cap tech stocks: $FB, $AMZN, $AAPL, $TSLA, $MSFT, $GOOG, $NFLX, $NVDA seem like the best place to put your money, even after the huge runup.

 

[tivoboy]

Yes, with California closing down again, schools not opening for the fall, etc., the market is poised to go through another rough patch. If you are fully invested, selling now to then buy back in at a lower price isn't a bad idea. I'm talking specifically about growth/momentum stocks here. Dividend paying stocks will likely do OK. There might be a sector rotation going on as well.

Whenever. I take these big 5x gains off (in the non taxed accounts), I’m parking it in T and VZ,, and some others I won’t mention.

 

[azaz]

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1285687458030592002

Very interesting, gonna have to do my research on this

 

[hershey101]

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1285687458030592002

Very interesting, gonna have to do my research on this

@azaz Let us know what you find... I took a very very tiny position in AH (~1% of my portfolio), just so I am forced to keep an eye on it... Will probably flip half and let half run to $0 (or infinity hopefully).

I also plan on doing some research over the coming days/weeks... I may add more if I like what I see...

NOTE: Chamath also has $IPOB and $IPOC shares trading now... Still unclear what these companies will target, but if you want to play the game of investing in the person instead of the company, these might be good investments.... $IPOA which brought $SPCE to market ended up paying quite well ($10->$42 at peak), even if it took years to get there.

 

[phantasms]

2 things.

1. Anyone know why CLSK has been steadily going up? I'm very pleased but I don't like to be in the dark no matter the direction.

2. What's the general thoughts on the China companies? I'm holding NIU and NIO. They've done very well however I get concerned about this China thing heating up. The talking heads have been discussing the possibility of Dear Leader kicking out the Chinese companies from the exchanges.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Christ, I called it on INTC but I've been so distracted with TSLA that I didn't make any moves before earnings. Imagine if I had puts. Oh well.

 

[hershey101]

Christ, I called it on INTC but I've been so distracted with TSLA that I didn't make any moves before earnings. Imagine if I had puts. Oh well.

Haha same with me but with respect to $AMD at $56. Got distracted with the $TSLA train that went nowhere.

 

[Boomer19]

posted this scenario in main thread with surprisingly (to men anyway) little response

thanks to those that did

but posting again here, maybe more appropriate

how many here are spaceX investors as well as Tesla? (unfortunately i am not)

curious....
if one was lucky enough to get a crack at it, to what ratio would you reduce your overall TSLA position within your portfolio to attain SpaceX?

on a level of 1 to 3,
1 being , skip it and wish you had the money to put in spacex, prob kick yourself in the ass down the road, for not doing it


2, do whatever you have to do to try and maneuver your way into spacex

3, sell the family and scorch everything on earth for spacex shares at any valuation and any fees

what would you do?

 

[Cosmacelf]

posted this scenario in main thread with surprisingly (to men anyway) little response

thanks to those that did

but posting again here, maybe more appropriate

I don’t know why people ask about investing strategies. How you should invest varies wildly with your personal situation. Are you young or old? Do you have a little or a lot of investable cash? How liquid do your investments need to be? Ie can you afford to let investments ride for years and years if need be?

And SpaceX investment adds a unique requirement in that you generally have to invest a lot of money into it, it is highly illiquid and has relatively high transaction costs. Kinda like real estate.

To be honest, I regard my investment in SpaceX as a “vanity” investment. It’s cool to have. If I really wanted to maximize wealth creation, I should probably put the money into other growth stocks instead (like newly minted IPOs like FOUR which haven’t taken off yet). Having said that, I don’t think SpaceX valuation is as absurd as many growth stocks in this hot market are. And you won’t have to look at its price gyrating every time someone sneezes. So there is that.

 

[Boomer19]

I don’t know why people ask about investing strategies. How you should invest varies wildly with your personal situation. Are you young or old? Do you have a little or a lot of investable cash? How liquid do your investments need to be? Ie can you afford to let investments ride for years and years if need be?

And SpaceX investment adds a unique requirement in that you generally have to invest a lot of money into it, it is highly illiquid and has relatively high transaction costs. Kinda like real estate.

To be honest, I regard my investment in SpaceX as a “vanity” investment. It’s cool to have. If I really wanted to maximize wealth creation, I should probably put the money into other growth stocks instead (like newly minted IPOs like FOUR which haven’t taken off yet). Having said that, I don’t think SpaceX valuation is as absurd as many growth stocks in this hot market are. And you won’t have to look at its price gyrating every time someone sneezes. So there is that.

question is more to get a gauge on the board’s sentiment on spacex versus tesla...would you shed some tesla for spacex if you had the chance, if so, what ratio between the two

not looking for advice on HOW to do it, or HOW much to do, should the opportunity arise. maybe should have been more clear.

my follow up would have been the valuation question...
people are talking 40-45bb right now

with starlink, boring, only 100 missions under their belt, what is the average TMC Joe’s perception of 5-10-15 year horizon on spaceX

agree on vanity investment. and will check out four, thanks for tip

 

[phantasms]

I’d personally sell half my Tesla to invest in Space X and let it roll.

 

[pz1975]

question is more to get a gauge on the board’s sentiment on spacex versus tesla...would you shed some tesla for spacex if you had the chance, if so, what ratio between the two

not looking for advice on HOW to do it, or HOW much to do, should the opportunity arise. maybe should have been more clear.

my follow up would have been the valuation question...
people are talking 40-45bb right now

with starlink, boring, only 100 missions under their belt, what is the average TMC Joe’s perception of 5-10-15 year horizon on spaceX

agree on vanity investment. and will check out four, thanks for tip

I took some profits from the TSLA squeeze in January to buy SpaceX shares recently at $36 billion valuation (I paid around $40 billion with all the fees included). My ratio of TSLA:SpaceX is still roughly 13:1. I would have sold some TSLA to buy SpaceX.