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I watched Chamath's early interviews on CNBC, he was with Cathie Woods one of the few positive and refreshing voices on Tesla, and very good at countering the CNBC interviewer. So good in fact that they edited parts of it out. Unfortunately he seems to have veered off track starting with CLOV . For those who may not have followed closely, the critical piece was from Hindenburg research Clover Health: How the “King of SPACs” Lured Retail Investors Into a Broken Business Facing an Active, Undisclosed DOJ Investigation whose claim to fame was to have nailed the coffin on Nikola. That one was already soft-debunked by many but never as authoritatively as Hindenburg.

Speaking of SPAC's :

SPACs are starting to get a bad rap (didn't make a note of the pertinent analyses, but essentially the early founders get a huge piece like 50% for free).

The next SPAC getting Hindenburg'ed might be Lucid Motors, see Warren Redlich's YouTube - BREAKING!! Lucid Motors & CCIV Sued
" Lucid Motors and CCIV were just sued in a federal class action securities lawsuit.
Lucid and CCIV, a Michael Klein SPAC, are planning to merge this Spring. Warren breaks down the details of the lawsuit in this video, which fits with Warren's previous videos saying Lucid looks like a fraud"

I watched Rawlinson's Lucid advert video and was not impressed at all - his English accent might have endeared him to the Saudis and others, but to me he seemed slick, deceptive and just mouthing words. BTW Elon dismissed his contributions as minor in a tweet, also mentioning he bailed out when the going got tough - "not cool": Elon's tweet: " Rawlinson didn’t design Model S. Prototype was done before he joined & he left us in the lurch just as things got tough, which was not cool. He did make some contributions to body/chassis engineering, but not to powertrain, battery, electronics or software".

However the FF1 (Faraday Future) seems very real - Munro had a look at an early model/ prototype and the basic parts, without endorsing it since they didn't break them down. Sound like they have a chance, addressing the ultra high end market, plus their factory is in an advanced stage of construction. Will go SPAC, but I wouldn't put money in them. Especially now when Tesla is ready to explode with Berlin/ Texas, the 4860 intro, CT, M2, FSD, DWS Dojo as a service, the VPP power/ utilities/ solar ramping up, Lithium mining, the Boring Co., and who knows what the bright engineers at Tesla may come up with.

Yeah, I agree with all that. People forget that starting a car company from scratch is stupidly hard. Rivian has a good chance, and they are the company I have a reservation with.
 
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And you were saying? Up about 70% since you posted this a few days ago. I bought a bunch more shares at 0.99 which helped bring my average down a bit. Overall I am still down a bit but this weeks rally helps. Plan is to hold long-term.
Guess it’s a good thing I pointed it out when I did. Grabbed a bit more myself at $1 I’m still long on these guys even though I sold most of what I had at various points between $2.50 and $4.50.
 
Here's a company that I just bought a position in today in the open market. Endeavor (EDR) just went public today at $24/share (regular IPO). I was able to scoop up some shares at $24 and then some more at $25. It closed today at $25.20.

Prospectus: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1766363/000119312521131699/d156166ds1a.htm

Endeavor is an entertainment company with many disparate parts, but each appear to have value. Using 2019 revenues as representative (2020 was an odd year, especially for them, due to COVID), 43% of revenue comes from Events, 36% from their talent agency business (they rep Hollywood and sports stars), and 20% from sports leagues, the biggest of which is the UFC. That 20% will grow quite a bit in 2021 since they used to own 51% of the UFC in 2019, and they now own all of it.

Due to Covid, all three business segments got hit, but looking at their finances, they managed the situation as well as they could, commensurately reducing expenses to match.

This isn't a company I would normally invest in, other than to gain exposure to the entertainment world, but I am very familiar with the UFC and my take is that the league will grow by leaps and bounds going forward. It has a truly world class CEO in Dana White and they are well positioned for future growth.

Likewise, I am moderately impressed by the overall management (headed by Ari Emmanuel). I like their entrepreneurial outlook, and I suspect they will continue to make good acquisitions.

On the negative side, the ownership structure is complex. Anyways, do your own DD. Enjoy!
 
You didn’t mention that being added to Endeavor’s board of directors is one E.R. Musk.


~~~~~Of which I have ranted as.......well, as critically as I permit myself to rant on this platform~~~~~~~

Yeah, I forgot that. A feather in endeavor’s cap. Not clear how much value Elon will bring since he likely won’t spend much cycles thinking about Endeavor. I see it as an integrity auditor. Elon is not going to sign onto anything shady at the board level.
 
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The reason for my rant was because I view Endeavor’s capital structure as being inimical, incompatible, absolutely counter to what Mr Musk very publicly has demonstrated, if not categorically stated, as being appropriate. Obviously, I likewise share that view.

There is not ONE - the only appropriate number - nor even two, but rather there are SIX classes of Endeavor shares. This restructuring into which you invested is one designed to protect, and benefit most, a very small number of rarefied shareholders.

You are not one of them.

I despise this misuse of the capital markets.
 
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The reason for my rant was because I view Endeavor’s capital structure as being inimical, incompatible, absolutely counter to what Mr Musk very publicly has demonstrated, if not categorically stated, as being appropriate. Obviously, I likewise share that view.

There is not ONE - the only appropriate number - nor even two, but rather there are SIX classes of Endeavor shares. This restructuring into which you invested is one designed to protect, and benefit most, a very small number of rarefied shareholders.

You are not one of them.

I despise this misuse of the capital markets.

Yes, as far as voting power is concerned, retail common stock holders get squat. But we were going to get squat no matter what anyways since the company sold just $500M worth of stock on about a $15B valuation, so common stock votes were always going to be a small percentage anyways.

You are fooling yourself if you think retail investors have a say in almost any public company stock.

Even in Tesla - haven't you noticed that in every annual meeting, the outcome of the votes is known seconds after the lawyer officially closes the proxy deadline? Between Elon, other founders, and institutional investors, whatever retail investors vote is irrelevant.

The reason for the six classes has to do with the big egos who have financed the company. It was a negotiated power sharing arrangement between them. I really don't care myself. At the end of the day, the company is going to do well or not based on the skill of the CEO.
 
I’m sorry you feel that way. As ever, I wish all well with their long investments.

And in a toast to same, remembering to substitute “longs” and “shorts” where appropriate:

”Here’s champagne to our real friends

And real pain to our sham ones.”
 
Here's an interesting one for you guys. Interlock Capital is a relatively new company that connects angel investors to private companies on a syndication basis. I met the founders (they are local to me in San Diego) just a few weeks ago and I recently made an investment through them as well. Other than so far making one investment through their platform, I have zero connection to the company or the founders. I like the concept and their execution.

This is quite different from other private company brokers, so let me explain.

First, with Interlock, you are participating in an active investment round (series A, Series B, angel convert debt, etc_) as opposed to buying private shares from someone as you do with Sharespost or Forge. So while you are getting the best current company valuation, the number of opportunities are more limited and are usually only open for a short period of time.

Second, these guys do a lot of due diligence of the investments. The opportunity is very well laid out, you have access to the full financing deck, and you get due diligence commentary from the Interlock Capital founders and others who have had DD discussions with the company principals. Don't be looking for SpaceX shares here though, these are smaller companies, usually early stage, but no less potentially interesting.

Third, Interlock acts as a syndicate meaning that while private companies usually have $100K or more investment minimums (to keep the number of private investors below SEC limits), Interlock allow you to invest as little as $1K typically. Interlock aggregates all the investments together and makes a single investment into the private company, and you end up with a partnership interest into a fund that then owns shares in that private company. The upside of this is it allows you to invest in many more private companies. The downside is that Interlock takes a fee. For my Forcastr investment, they took a 6% fee off the top, and then will take a 15% carry upon successful exit.

This compares favorably to a VC fund. In a VC fund, the fund takes 2% of your investment every year for up to 5 to 10 years, and then a 20% carry on each successful exit. And you don't get to decide what you invest in. With Interlock, you can pick and choose what to invest in, and how much. They seem to put a new deal up for consideration on their platform about 1-2 times a month.

I love the platform. Closing on a deal is super easy (almost too easy 😀). You electronically sign a bunch of partnership documents, and then provide ACH information for direct debit from your bank account.

One of the key things Interlock wants to foster is communications among investors. So they have slack channels for discussing their deals before and after investments.

They currently have access to a MEMS technology company whose first product is in the LiDAR space (Omnitron Sensors). Very qualified management team and pedigree. I personally don't like the LiDAR space, so I'll be passing. They are also chasing a rare later stage investment with Impossible Foods. This is more interesting to me personally, so I can't wait to see their diligence package on that one if it comes to fruition.

Accessing their deal flow is super easy. Just create an account via their main page. Someone from Interlock will contact you, make sure you aren't crazy and are qualified (only accredited investors are allowed). They will then unlock your account and you can then view all the DD packages, etc. from current and past deals. Use my TMC handle (Cosmacelf) or my real name when the form asks you who referred you (I get nothing for referrals, it just allows Interlock to know how people found out about them).

Finally, I know you all know this, but investing in private companies is ESPECIALLY risky. The rule of thumb for VC funds is that out of ten investments they make, seven die, money goes poof. Two are walking dead where you can make back your investment (break even), and one goes to the moon. Or put another way, don't invest in a private company unless you can just shrug your shoulders about your investment when the company goes poof.

Edit: Meant to post this link here. Here's a recent article from the San Diego Union Tribune about Interlocal Capital: 'Not your typical startup fund:' 2 pillars in San Diego tech launch angel group
 
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Here's an interesting one for you guys. Interlock Capital is a relatively new company that connects angel investors to private companies on a syndication basis. I met the founders (they are local to me in San Diego) just a few weeks ago and I recently made an investment through them as well. Other than so far making one investment through their platform, I have zero connection to the company or the founders. I like the concept and their execution.

This is quite different from other private company brokers, so let me explain.

First, with Interlock, you are participating in an active investment round (series A, Series B, angel convert debt, etc_) as opposed to buying private shares from someone as you do with Sharespost or Forge. So while you are getting the best current company valuation, the number of opportunities are more limited and are usually only open for a short period of time.

Second, these guys do a lot of due diligence of the investments. The opportunity is very well laid out, you have access to the full financing deck, and you get due diligence commentary from the Interlock Capital founders and others who have had DD discussions with the company principals. Don't be looking for SpaceX shares here though, these are smaller companies, usually early stage, but no less potentially interesting.

Third, Interlock acts as a syndicate meaning that while private companies usually have $100K or more investment minimums (to keep the number of private investors below SEC limits), Interlock allow you to invest as little as $1K typically. Interlock aggregates all the investments together and makes a single investment into the private company, and you end up with a partnership interest into a fund that then owns shares in that private company. The upside of this is it allows you to invest in many more private companies. The downside is that Interlock takes a fee. For my Forcastr investment, they took a 6% fee off the top, and then will take a 15% carry upon successful exit.

This compares favorably to a VC fund. In a VC fund, the fund takes 2% of your investment every year for up to 5 to 10 years, and then a 20% carry on each successful exit. And you don't get to decide what you invest in. With Interlock, you can pick and choose what to invest in, and how much. They seem to put a new deal up for consideration on their platform about 1-2 times a month.

I love the platform. Closing on a deal is super easy (almost too easy 😀). You electronically sign a bunch of partnership documents, and then provide ACH information for direct debit from your bank account.

One of the key things Interlock wants to foster is communications among investors. So they have slack channels for discussing their deals before and after investments.

They currently have access to a MEMS technology company whose first product is in the LiDAR space (Omnitron Sensors). Very qualified management team and pedigree. I personally don't like the LiDAR space, so I'll be passing. They are also chasing a rare later stage investment with Impossible Foods. This is more interesting to me personally, so I can't wait to see their diligence package on that one if it comes to fruition.

Accessing their deal flow is super easy. Just create an account via their main page. Someone from Interlock will contact you, make sure you aren't crazy and are qualified (only accredited investors are allowed). They will then unlock your account and you can then view all the DD packages, etc. from current and past deals. Use my TMC handle (Cosmacelf) or my real name when the form asks you who referred you (I get nothing for referrals, it just allows Interlock to know how people found out about them).

Finally, I know you all know this, but investing in private companies is ESPECIALLY risky. The rule of thumb for VC funds is that out of ten investments they make, seven die, money goes poof. Two are walking dead where you can make back your investment (break even), and one goes to the moon. Or put another way, don't invest in a private company unless you can just shrug your shoulders about your investment when the company goes poof.

Edit: Meant to post this link here. Here's a recent article from the San Diego Union Tribune about Interlocal Capital: 'Not your typical startup fund:' 2 pillars in San Diego tech launch angel group

I fill out information on that website.

When they ask who referred you, I entered "Cosmacelf".

I'm sure they'll understand.
 
I fill out information on that website.

When they ask who referred you, I entered "Cosmacelf".

I'm sure they'll understand.
As did I also.
It will be very interesting to see if they have anyone focusing on NEO space mining for volatiles and metals
(it was nice to be able to answer "yes" to one of the questions about AI with out stretching the truth)
 
Yes, as far as voting power is concerned, retail common stock holders get squat. But we were going to get squat no matter what anyways since the company sold just $500M worth of stock on about a $15B valuation, so common stock votes were always going to be a small percentage anyways.

You are fooling yourself if you think retail investors have a say in almost any public company stock.

Even in Tesla - haven't you noticed that in every annual meeting, the outcome of the votes is known seconds after the lawyer officially closes the proxy deadline? Between Elon, other founders, and institutional investors, whatever retail investors vote is irrelevant.

The reason for the six classes has to do with the big egos who have financed the company. It was a negotiated power sharing arrangement between them. I really don't care myself. At the end of the day, the company is going to do well or not based on the skill of the CEO.

Being a common stock investor can be of value to embarrass the company into doing something in some circumstances. When I was at Boeing, they built a brand new building for our group across the street from Boeing field. There was an old woman who I think was in her 80s literally living in the parking lot. She had an old house that was there before Boeing was and had refused to move. There were parking spots on both sides of her house with no yard around it.

One day someone who knew the story told me Boeing was trying to force her out, but she refused to move. So she bought some Boeing stock and went to the annual shareholder's meeting where she got up and asked why Boeing was trying to evict a shareholder from her home. Apparently that was enough embarrassment to get Boeing to work out a deal where she could stay in her house. I'm sure she's passed by now and the house is probably gone (this was almost 30 years ago).

But for the most part common stock holders don't have much say unless they gang up in a revolt and even then it's rare.

On a different note I recently inherited a bunch of equities from my father. He had a bunch of investments he made going back to the 80s when he cashed out his mother's house after she passed. Plus when he was in assisted living my sister (with his consent) sold his house and invested the money in revenue producing assets.

She's a petroleum geologist, so the portfolio is heavily invested in fossil fuel assets. From an investment point of view, she did a good job of preserving the capital and paying for his needs out of monthly revenue, but my needs and goals are different.

Fossil fuel stocks took a big hit last year and most are still way down from where they were 15 months ago. Though the signs are good that they will probably recover in the next year. I'm not going to have a fire sale or anything, but I do want to move away from fossil fuels and into good tech/alternate energy growth stocks.

I have taken some of the suggestions here in the last few weeks and done a few modest buys, but are there any more recommendations for growth stocks I should investigate?
 
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Being a common stock investor can be of value to embarrass the company into doing something in some circumstances. When I was at Boeing, they built a brand new building for our group across the street from Boeing field. There was an old woman who I think was in her 80s literally living in the parking lot. She had an old house that was there before Boeing was and had refused to move. There were parking spots on both sides of her house with no yard around it.

One day someone who knew the story told me Boeing was trying to force her out, but she refused to move. So she bought some Boeing stock and went to the annual shareholder's meeting where she got up and asked why Boeing was trying to evict a shareholder from her home. Apparently that was enough embarrassment to get Boeing to work out a deal where she could stay in her house. I'm sure she's passed by now and the house is probably gone (this was almost 30 years ago).

But for the most part common stock holders don't have much say unless they gang up in a revolt and even then it's rare.

On a different note I recently inherited a bunch of equities from my father. He had a bunch of investments he made going back to the 80s when he cashed out his mother's house after she passed. Plus when he was in assisted living my sister (with his consent) sold his house and invested the money in revenue producing assets.

She's a petroleum geologist, so the portfolio is heavily invested in fossil fuel assets. From an investment point of view, she did a good job of preserving the capital and paying for his needs out of monthly revenue, but my needs and goals are different.

Fossil fuel stocks took a big hit last year and most are still way down from where they were 15 months ago. Though the signs are good that they will probably recover in the next year. I'm not going to have a fire sale or anything, but I do want to move away from fossil fuels and into good tech/alternate energy growth stocks.

I have taken some of the suggestions here in the last few weeks and done a few modest buys, but are there any more recommendations for growth stocks I should investigate?

Depending on which fossil fuel stocks, they can give great dividends, and energy stocks are poised for growth in the next year or so. I personally might wait for a bit before selling.

For growth stocks, I still like GP, ARRY, and SHOP. Those haven’t been run up too high, IMHO.
 
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Depending on which fossil fuel stocks, they can give great dividends, and energy stocks are poised for growth in the next year or so. I personally might wait for a bit before selling.

For growth stocks, I still like GP, ARRY, and SHOP. Those haven’t been run up too high, IMHO.

Yup, I'm holding off on selling any of the fossil fuel stocks. I want them to get back to around where they were before the crash at the beginning of the pandemic before selling. Most of the stocks should get there in the next few months, though the exploration support stocks like Schlumberger are probably going to take longer.

I think one of the reasons my sister invested so heavily in fossil fuels was because of the good dividends. I remember my father saying years ago that he'd received more in dividends from his Exxon stock than it initially cost him.

Thanks for the recommendations. I'll take a look at them.
 
Peloton (PTON) might be interesting at some point. I have researched at all yet to see any valuation models, but I know they have a cult following.

They have dropped significantly the past few days because of a recall on their treadmill. The treadmill has injured like 70 people and unfortunately one child died.

That being said the treadmill is only like 1-2% of their revenue so the drop might be an overreaction.

The most bullish thing I heard on NPR was them interviewing a lady who got significantly injured by the treadmill, and she is STILL in love with the company and products!
 
Fastly (FSLY) is on sale today after a disappointing 2Q outlook and CFO retirement. Still a good stock IMHO.

A company in a similar space, Cloudflare (NET) reports today, and its price also took a tumble, probably as a knock on effect of Fastly. Could also be a good buy if you want to gamble ahead of earnings after market close today.
 
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Cathie Wood has been buying up Palantir, but I'm not sold on it.

Palantir started as basically a software consulting shop that built custom solutions for its small number of clients. Not a very scalable business model. Now they are productizing the internal tools they built up to sell to a bigger market without as high of a marginal cost. It's basically a GUI data visualization tool with some nice data privacy features. This is great, it makes total sense for them to do it. But there's a disconnect between this sensible expansion of the business to a larger number of less lucrative clients versus CEO Richard Karp hyping Palantir as *the* data science company.

Hype is part of a CEO's job, so I can't blame Karp for doing it. Honestly though, it's not that hard to replicate Palantir-like tools, and there's a bunch of startups here in Silicon Valley doing just that. And data visualization tools don't have the sort of network effects that, say, programming languages have.

I also find Karp's criticism of Silicon Valley to be insufferably vague. He mumbles something something about an engineering monoculture, and then says engineers shouldn't be making moral judgements about technology but should leave it to politicians and humanities majors. As an engineer the message I hear is he thinks we should just shut up and code.
 
Depending on which fossil fuel stocks, they can give great dividends, and energy stocks are poised for growth in the next year or so. I personally might wait for a bit before selling.

For growth stocks, I still like GP, ARRY, and SHOP. Those haven’t been run up too high, IMHO.
Dividends are the wrong reason to hold fossil fuel stocks. Even a high yielder, say 5%, is going to take 20 years to break even on divvies. I don't think those divvies are going to last 20 years.

The reason to hold fossil stocks right now is to take advantage of their short term recovery out of the COVID recession. There's huge pent up demand for travel, plus people will start driving to the office again. So over the next year or two there's going to be a huge uptick in oil demand, and consequently oil prices, and consequently oil stocks. We're already seeing it. But starting in the late 2020s there's going to be a real crunch in oil and gas demand as EVs and renewables spread. I wouldn't buy fossil stocks at all, but if I did I'd sell as soon as they peak out. Don't hold for the dividends!
 
The next SPAC getting Hindenburg'ed might be Lucid Motors, see Warren Redlich's YouTube - BREAKING!! Lucid Motors & CCIV Sued
" Lucid Motors and CCIV were just sued in a federal class action securities lawsuit.
Lucid and CCIV, a Michael Klein SPAC, are planning to merge this Spring. Warren breaks down the details of the lawsuit in this video, which fits with Warren's previous videos saying Lucid looks like a fraud"

I watched Rawlinson's Lucid advert video and was not impressed at all - his English accent might have endeared him to the Saudis and others, but to me he seemed slick, deceptive and just mouthing words. BTW Elon dismissed his contributions as minor in a tweet, also mentioning he bailed out when the going got tough - "not cool": Elon's tweet: " Rawlinson didn’t design Model S. Prototype was done before he joined & he left us in the lurch just as things got tough, which was not cool. He did make some contributions to body/chassis engineering, but not to powertrain, battery, electronics or software".

However the FF1 (Faraday Future) seems very real - Munro had a look at an early model/ prototype and the basic parts, without endorsing it since they didn't break them down. Sound like they have a chance, addressing the ultra high end market, plus their factory is in an advanced stage of construction. Will go SPAC, but I wouldn't put money in them. Especially now when Tesla is ready to explode with Berlin/ Texas, the 4860 intro, CT, Semi, M2, FSD, DWS Dojo as a service, the VPP power/ utilities/ solar ramping up, Lithium mining, the Boring Co., and who knows what else the bright engineers at Tesla may come up with.
Strange. You know, a few years ago when Faraday hit financial trouble a bunch of top people quit and founded Canoo. Since then, Canoo went public with a SPAC, but then the SPAC guys fired all the Canoo founders so maybe that talent is headed back to Faraday? The whole LA EV startup scene (Aerovironment, AC Propulsion, Coda, Faraday, Canoo, Fisker.v1, Fisker.v2, Karma) has produced more drama than cars over the last 30 years.

I mean, if you're ok with risk you can be bullish on Faraday. But it doesn't make sense you'd be bullish on Faraday while being bearish on Lucid. Lucid is quite clearly further along and has a lot of well known ex-Tesla people who supposedly know what they're doing, while Faraday's team (heck the entire Los Angeles ecosystem) has never built a successful automaker before.
 
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