What other tech stock to consider?

[GoTslaGo]

If You Bought Stock in Snapchat's IPO, You've Now Definitely Lost Money
Snapchat IPO Investors Have Now All Lost Money on Snap Stock

Fortune - 6h ago


Snap stock has fallen below its IPO price of $17 for the first time, roughly four months after the maker of Snapchat went public in March.

 

[green48]

Has anyone here looked at APRN? Been thinking about buying a few shares. Main reasons are: expected to do over $1B in sales this year (up from $78MM..not a typo) in 2014, they have a massive potential market, and they're currently trading under 2x TTM revenues. They've been hammered by a poorly-timed IPO and the Amazon-Whole Foods news. I'm thinking that even moderate success in the next couple years should yield significant return. Any other opinions on APRN?

 

[AlMc]

Has anyone here looked at APRN? Been thinking about buying a few shares. Main reasons are: expected to do over $1B in sales this year (up from $78MM..not a typo) in 2014, they have a massive potential market, and they're currently trading under 2x TTM revenues. They've been hammered by a poorly-timed IPO and the Amazon-Whole Foods news. I'm thinking that even moderate success in the next couple years should yield significant return. Any other opinions on APRN?

No. I don't see any moat to competition and if AMZN enters that space then it would be better to have puts on it.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Has anyone here looked at APRN? Been thinking about buying a few shares. Main reasons are: expected to do over $1B in sales this year (up from $78MM..not a typo) in 2014, they have a massive potential market, and they're currently trading under 2x TTM revenues. They've been hammered by a poorly-timed IPO and the Amazon-Whole Foods news. I'm thinking that even moderate success in the next couple years should yield significant return. Any other opinions on APRN?

I like food to be cooked and ready to eat. The last thing I want to do after work is cook and clean. Sorry not the best concept IMO.

 

[tlo]

I like food to be cooked and ready to eat. The last thing I want to do after work is cook and clean. Sorry not the best concept IMO.

The concept plays on several trends:
- online shopping, with groceries one of few categories not yet dominated
- with this comes greater ability to proportion/customize ingredients
- Gen X and Y have spend less time grocery shopping and cooking
- target market is cities, where retail space increasingly expensive and delivery logistics increasingly affordable
- sustainability
- proportioning ingredients to meals cuts waste and reduces cost
- Gen X and Y want high quality organic/sustainable ingredients
- lastly, concept relies on farm-to-door logistics model that cuts out processing, wholesalers and retailers
- this again reduces cost and waste, provides fresher ingredients and is only possible with today's technology

But why not just order food delivery? I think both will be very popular, but:
- weekly grocery delivery likely less expensive than repeated meal deliveries
- home cooked meals likely healthier
- sentimental value in preparing a meal for your loved ones
- grocery sales and fact that people are not moving to homes with no kitchens means Gen X/Y still like to cook, albeit less frequently and less knowledgeable

What I'm basically saying is I see this trend continuing and these types of grocery/meal delivery services will become increasingly prevalent.

HOWEVER, I do not see APRN having monopolistic advantages in this market, which is one of my key criteria for investing. I tried to trade it on IPO day but quickly got out with a small loss.

 

[tlo]

If You Bought Stock in Snapchat's IPO, You've Now Definitely Lost Money
Snapchat IPO Investors Have Now All Lost Money on Snap Stock

Fortune - 6h ago


Snap stock has fallen below its IPO price of $17 for the first time, roughly four months after the maker of Snapchat went public in March.

Not all investors lost money on SNAP. I'm net positive, but that's because I sold most above $20.

For several times, IPO level of $17 served as support and could be traded.

I still think SNAP is a decent risk-reward play, but user growth metrics must improve.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Not all investors lost money on SNAP. I'm net positive, but that's because I sold most above $20.

For several times, IPO level of $17 served as support and could be traded.

I still think SNAP is a decent risk-reward play, but user growth metrics must improve.

Looked at SNAP couple of times but didn't pull the trigger. Now at this price hmmmmm.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Looked at SNAP couple of times but didn't pull the trigger. Now at this price hmmmmm.

An article i read said that some of the original investors lock up period hasn't expired yet. The article indicated that their basis is even lower than current SP. Implying that even with today's low prices, they would be able to profit. Obviously if their shares come out, it will likely drive SP down more...

 

[tlo]

An article i read said that some of the original investors lock up period hasn't expired yet. The article indicated that their basis is even lower than current SP. Implying that even with today's low prices, they would be able to profit. Obviously if their shares come out, it will likely drive SP down more...

Lock up expiration does not always lead to a further selloff. Just as likely is a big rally, as the market realizes there are less sellers than expected, an overhang is removed from the stock, and short sellers cover.

Another example: Shake Shack's stock soars as post-IPO lock-up period expires

 

[Drax7]

Baba putting up some impressive numbers.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Baba putting up some impressive numbers.

China's version of Amazon's cashier-less store is here

Cashierless stores.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

So ended up buying COST, CMG and of course TSLA right before market close.

 

[aubreymcfato]

What about Meyer Burger, the Swiss PV firm that allegedly is talking with Tesla?
Tesla May Consider Partnership with Swiss Photovoltaics Firm Meyer Burger

It's cheap enough to try to scoop some shares, waiting for a confirmation.

 

[GoTslaGo]

So ended up buying COST, CMG and of course TSLA right before market close.

So tempted to get back into COST. Got in last time it was at 151. At that point the pattern showed a bullish pipe bottom on the weekly. It ultimately ran up to the 180s we bailed at 170s. Pattern is not so clear cut now. Still think it's a good buy at this price, but just need the AMZN shadow to abate (like a lot of other stocks).

 

[TMSE]

So tempted to get back into COST. Got in last time it was at 151. At that point the pattern showed a bullish pipe bottom on the weekly. It ultimately ran up to the 180s we bailed at 170s. Pattern is not so clear cut now. Still think it's a good buy at this price, but just need the AMZN shadow to abate (like a lot of other stocks).

Costco makes most of its profits from membership fees. I haven't seen anyone I know cancel membership. I think even Amazon can't overcome Costco for the following reasons:
1) Carefully curated finite set of above average or premium quality products at reasonable prices.
2) unparalleled membership benefits like unlimited product returns, discounts etc.
3) For a lot of customers, weekly Costco run is like a treasure hunt. It is a form of entertainment.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Costco makes most of its profits from membership fees. I haven't seen anyone I know cancel membership. I think even Amazon can't overcome Costco for the following reasons:
1) Carefully curated finite set of above average or premium quality products at reasonable prices.
2) unparalleled membership benefits like unlimited product returns, discounts etc.
3) For a lot of customers, weekly Costco run is like a treasure hunt. It is a form of entertainment.

Both points 2 and 3 are true for Amazon.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Costco makes most of its profits from membership fees. I haven't seen anyone I know cancel membership. I think even Amazon can't overcome Costco for the following reasons:
1) Carefully curated finite set of above average or premium quality products at reasonable prices.
2) unparalleled membership benefits like unlimited product returns, discounts etc.
3) For a lot of customers, weekly Costco run is like a treasure hunt. It is a form of entertainment.

Preaching to the choir here! Been a member for over a decade. Love getting those checks at the end of the year. TAs look like COST is reversing to the upside. So it's a possibility!

 

[TMSE]

Both points 2 and 3 are true for Amazon.

Treasure hunt on Amazon? Rather, is it a land mine of buying some crappy untested product? Just to clarify, I do like Amazon, it is good when you know exactly what you want to buy.

For example, if I come across a new item while shopping, say truffle infused extra virgin olive oil, and I want to try it, who would I trust? On Amazon, I start wondering about the reputation of the seller. I even wonder whether this product is fake. At Costco, I don't care what brand it is. I simply grab the product and put it in my cart. The buy decision making is so easy and stress free.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Treasure hunt on Amazon? Rather, is it a land mine of buying some crappy untested product? Make no mistake, I do like Amazon, it is good when you know exactly what you want to buy.

For example, if I come across a new item while shopping, say truffle infused extra virgin olive oil, and I want to try it, who would I trust? On Amazon, I start wondering about the reputation of the seller. I even wonder whether this product is fake. At Costco, I don't care what brand it is. I simply grab the product and put it in my cart. The buy decision making is so easy and stress free.

I don't disagree with everything you are saying, but yes, plenty of people browse around on Amazon regularly, especially through the "other buyers purchased" or "similar items" pages. Less "stumble-upon" effect than a brick and mortar store, no doubt, but that's true of any physical store compared to Amazon. I have no opinion on COST as an investment overall.

 

[Sanny]

Perhaps it's just me and my consumerism level not high enough to be excited about grocery shopping, but Costco is just unsexy. How come it showed up in a tech investment thread?