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What other tech stock to consider?
- Thread starter Sanny
- Start date
yup, that someone was me..recommended it at 35 bucks.
I went in pretty big at the time..and yet somehow TSLA outperformed it..lol.
Xepa777
Banned
Pump and dump?
FYI, the company is SUPER early. It's really a startup.
But yes, I've been an investor in this company since 0.11. And there's a sizable group of other Tesla investors who are also invested into this company.
ABML is basically a startup that was largely created when ex-Tesla Ryan Melsert joined as CTO in late 2019. He was a superstar at Tesla, winning top 1% employee award and verified genius by several of my friends who work at Tesla. Here's a list of his patents - Ryan Melsert Inventions, Patents and Patent Applications - Justia Patents Search
When he joined he also brought along August Meng (PhD, ex-Tesla) with him, Chuck Leber (construction manager for Tesla's Nevada Gigafactory), and now more recently ex-Tesla Kris Gustafson to lead procurement. The entire team is basically ex-Tesla. Their COO is also ex-Facebook
(
I've heard rumors that a lot of the recycling initiatives at Tesla directly stem from this team.
I know there's a lot of Redwood Materials fans here just because of "JB", but I encourage to look deeper than brand name association (i.e. QuantumScape). Watch people like "The Limiting Factor" talk about the skepticism in Redwood. Redwood Materials uses "smelting", which is basically burning batteries in a toxic manner. In addition to it being terrible for the environment, it also creates low yield rates as much of the raw materials are destroyed in the melting process. This is a similar process used for melting lots of other materials such as steel. It's quite archaic. In contrast, ABML is using a water-based hydrometallurgical process.
And unlike other companies in the same (Li-Cycle, American Maganese), ABML has claimed a "closed loop" process that basically recycles much of the reagents and water used in the recycling process. Not only is this environmentally friendly, it's also super high margin. Look at ABML's team compared to the other recycling companies. What makes ABML stand out is that its team is used to high volume processes while at Tesla, so they're designing battery recycling to be done at a high volume with high efficiency. That's the UNIQUE job experience you get from being an ex-Tesla employee held to those standards (and we remember the Panasonic horror stories of battery manufacturing waste).
Now you can say "well they're just claiming that how do I know it's real?" And that's true. It's still a super nascent space, and one Tesla isn't even taking that seriously yet by their limited job postings in this area. With that said, they won a global battery recycling challenge hosted by BASF, one of the leading cathode suppliers in the world. BASF has also basically funded ABML's research the past year in its Greentown Labs in Boston. So there's obviously something compelling there.
Ultimately ABML is a VC play. It's strange that this company is even publicly traded, and that's because ABML pre-Ryan was sort of a failed mining company. Instead of doing a completely new startup, Ryan wanted access to the lithium claims. If you check their 10-k they talk about the same "lithium clay" extraction process Tesla talked about in Battery Day (LINK - https://sec.report/Document/0001078782-20-000720/). No one knows for certain, but there's certainly a compelling reason for Ryan to take on all the debt and baggage of ABML vs. launching a new startup.
ABML is this weirdly ambitious play on a closed loop battery material supply chain that encompasses extraction & recycling. You can't fit it in a box. But neither could Tesla.
While this run-up is quite crazy, I don't see this as a "pump and dump." Far from that. This could be a company that is a critical part of our supply chain future. When you look at the list of of "essential minerals" from the "Green New Deal" you'll notice it's the EXACT same list as Trump's executive order in September. Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt, etc. When was the last time the Democats & Republicans agreed on anything?
That's because China controls 51% of the global total of chemical lithium, 62% of chemical cobalt and 100% of spherical graphite, some of the major components of lithium-ion batteries. If you thought China had us by the balls with PPE equipment, wait until they start cutting off essential minerals. While this may not be as big an issue for Tesla, for everyone else in the US this is quite an existential threat.
And with that, I stress that I am not invested in ABML for a "future partnership" with Tesla. I see the entire space as being SO. DAMN. BIG. that a rising tide will lift all boats for anyone who can profitably recycle batteries in 2030. It's as Elon Musk said in Battery Day, most of the future batteries will be made from recycled parts. Even if ABML has a 20% chance of success, that's worth well beyond this market cap now.
Finally, here's a video of Ryan speaking about ABML (the company is changing its name to ABTC) -
I highly, highly recommend people watch the vid.
I'm a SpaceX investor. I'm part of Galli's Hyperguap. I love startup, high-risk investments. Which is what this is. It's just amazing that such an asymmetrical investment opportunity like this exists for the non-accredited investor. And I fully expect this company to be giving $1 dividends by 2030.
There's a group of us Tesla investors that chat about this company daily on Discord. More than happy to chat with anyone here about the company. Sorry I just get so fired up over this company hahaha maybe this should be its own separate thread
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Xepa777
Banned
I literally just did a megapost on ABML so I'll save my bitcoin diatribe for another day. But I do recommend everyone read this from Ark Invest - https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARKinvest_091729_Whitepaper_Bitcoin_II_An Investment.pdf
A lot of people are wondering what's "the next Tesla"? It's not going to be another EV company. It probably won't even be in clean energy. What's the one opportunity that can disrupt a huge market, change the world, and has some of the smartest technical talent in the world innovating in that space?
Yep, crypto. Long Bitcoin. Long Ethereum.
And if you're feeling especially adventurous, Microstrategy is basically an options play on Bitcoin for extra leverage. Just sayin'
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Xepa777
Banned
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
TMC removes time stamps, but I've seen that video.
20% is not what I would consider much, and JB only used that figure for the Lithium and actually said "more than 80% recovery", and quoting higher percentages for other elements, "nickel 95-98%, same with cobalt and copper". At the 15:40 mark. You're being rather misleading about what the process yields.
Xepa777
Banned
I take offense to you calling my stuff misleading. When you consider how thin the margins are in the recycling industry to the point where recyclers are basically profitable mainly through tipping fees (aka being PAID to take on feedstock) then yes, that's a big deal.
Anyways made edits to my original post above. I have a lot of these links bookmarked on my computer and haven't opened them in awhile. I didn't even want to talk about ABML until the plant was finished building, but the viral explosion on the internet forced my hand (I saw way too many people investing in ABML for a future Tesla partnership vs. legitimate reasons for investing in the company) so wanted to bring genuine DD to the table.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Not sure what else you would call it. You made the process seem worse than it is by "quoting" numbers which were never used. By mistake or intentionally that's misleading. You seem to be working a bit too hard to talk down Redwood, (including pointlessly attacking JB's character), when your time would be better spent talking about ABML, and especially quoting their yield rates and efficiencies, which I have as yet been unable to find.
At the risk of getting involved in a fight between @JRP3 and @Xepa777, I'll say this much about ABML:
Based on my DD, they seem legit. The risk/reward is preferable to most other public market equity investments. It's a very early-stage startup but has the potential for serious returns over the next decade if they are successful.
Regarding the Redwood vs. ABML conv., I think this isn't really a conv. worth having since: You can only invest in one not the other. The market will be big enough in a decade for both players (and a few more).
EDIT: Updating this to mention the following:
I spoke with the CEO of ABML on the phone for almost an hour before putting my money into the company on the private investment. I think the brains of the operation are from the CTO, but the CEO does have a few qualities that I appriciate: He's a long-term thinker, he takes time out to talk to investors but is very explicit about only wanting folks that are going to take the time out to do their DD, and help the company grow (eg. active investing not passive), and listens to advice from others.
Their minimum private investment was $50k, and even though I made it clear that I couldn't invest that much because of my personal financial situation, and ended up going with 1/4th of that amount, they were happy to have me on board since they saw I did my DD before putting the money in. To be clear, it's not like they needed that $12.5k, they were closing on funding that's 1000x larger than that so my investment is quite literally a drop in the bucket. But they care about the quality of their investor base, and take a long term view, which I appriciate.
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I hope y’all got on PLUG last week when I mentioned it. Up 40% since then. Who knew hydrogen powered fork lifts were so popular??
Thanks for the heads up on ABML from the group. Got in at $0.90 and so far so good. Seems like they have a good vision and a potential niche. I plan to hold this one for a while.
Thanks for the heads up on ABML from the group. Got in at $0.90 and so far so good. Seems like they have a good vision and a potential niche. I plan to hold this one for a while.
Given the long standing skepticism of fuel cells, is this really something you'd consider a good investment? Or is this riding temporary enthusiasm (ala NKLA) and it's not likely to last?
Piney999
Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'd imagine fuel cell forklifts will be replaced by electric at some point in the near future. I was in PLUG about 20 years ago, think I lost some money as the stock tanked from highs.
Alright look, TSLA is in the S&P 500 now and it's destined to be boring. I don't generally trade penny stocks but I need that adrenaline kick so I bought some ABML. This is probably a pump and dump but I'm bored ok?
I don’t necessarily share your skepticism I think there are multiple technologies that will prosper. If you are skeptical of the technology then I’d advise avoiding the stock.
Is it a great long term play at this point? I don’t know... But it’s done quite well in recent months and has helped to offset my recent TSLA losses this week.
It is up to y’all what to invest in. Do your own research and take the actions you deem best. I just wanted to pass it along since the NNDM and ABML recommendations I got on this thread have done well. Not sure I’d get in on it today, might be due for a correction, but it’s done great since I first mentioned it despite the dislike for fuel cells on this forum.
They claim it’s the other way around.
GenDrive – Material Handling Power - Forklift Fuel Cells - Plug Power
You may have lost money 20 years ago but they’re up 1023% YTD.
i really don’t want to get into a pissing match about fuel cells vs batteries. It was just a stock pick for folks to check out and make their own decisions about.
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