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#2,941
To be clear I have no issue discussing criticisms of a stock I just don’t see the need to rehash the fuel cell thing over and over. Whether you like fuel cells has nothing to do with whether fuel cell stocks can make you money right now... that is my only point. I think the market is ridiculous right now so I’m trading mostly short term and going where the momentum is.

I agree with Cosmacelf, there are different ways to invest so ones definition of a “good” stock may vary based on that. And yes, it is extremely tedious to sift through all the rumors and speculation every morning to pick what the next thing will be so that you can get out ahead of the crowd... I honestly couldn’t do this for long but the election was just too much of a golden opportunity to pass up. The number of stocks that have doubled or tripled in the past month is absurd.
 
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#2,943
golfcart said:
I agree with Cosmacelf, there are different ways to invest so ones definition of a “good” stock may vary based on that. And yes, it is extremely tedious to sift through all the rumors and speculation every morning to pick what the next thing will be so that you can get out ahead of the crowd... I honestly couldn’t do this for long but the election was just too much of a golden opportunity to pass up. The number of stocks that have doubled or tripled in the past month is absurd.
Click to expand...

Your thesis that short term investing is prudent right now is pretty astute. I don't think we're heading for a crash in the next 6 months, but sometime this year? Yep, quite possibly.

But I gotta ask, how are you going to keep from getting caught when the inevitable decline starts? Are you accumulating cash as you go along, putting less and less of your liquid assets into play as you make profits? Or are you reinvesting your profits and climbing the ladder? If so, you'll need a hair trigger sell order? Just wondering what your downside protection is.
 
#2,945
Cosmacelf said:
Your thesis that short term investing is prudent right now is pretty astute. I don't think we're heading for a crash in the next 6 months, but sometime this year? Yep, quite possibly.

But I gotta ask, how are you going to keep from getting caught when the inevitable decline starts? Are you accumulating cash as you go along, putting less and less of your liquid assets into play as you make profits? Or are you reinvesting your profits and climbing the ladder? If so, you'll need a hair trigger sell order? Just wondering what your downside protection is.
Click to expand...

I'll just ride it as long as I can and if I think there's a correction I'll just sell and hold cash for a while or put it in stocks that pay dividends and are unlikely to crash as much. I'm no expert on this so I certainly don't have all the answers.

It looks like that WISH stock we talked about is on fire the last few days... did you get any?
 
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#2,946
golfcart said:
I'll just ride it as long as I can and if I think there's a correction I'll just sell and hold cash for a while or put it in stocks that pay dividends and are unlikely to crash as much. I'm no expert on this so I certainly don't have all the answers.

It looks like that WISH stock we talked about is on fire the last few days... did you get any?
Click to expand...

I did not. I'm pretty much fully invested in long term stocks (I am a HODL investor). I like my growth stock basket right now (heavily tech and Internet based) and may even hold through a correction. The basket has a ridiculous unrealized gain, so I can weather upcoming storms without feeling poor. I did start buying some "digital REITs". The ones I bought are completely mischaracterized by the investment community (they are COR and DLR). These are companies that own and operate data centers. COR and DLR in particular operate highly prized and sought after Internet interconnection points. If you are an ISP, you need to have a link into their data centers. If you provide a large scale Internet site to consumers, you need to have equipment in their data centers, etc.

-----

There are two competing theses about the stock market for this year. One is that it has gotten way over its skis and a correction will occur in 2021. The other is that we are due for the mother of all inflation hits due to all the free government $$. If we do get inflation, you really want to be fully invested, as all asset prices (including the stock market) will rise along with the inflation. You certainly don't want to be left holding cash or, even worse, debt (ie. you don't want to own bonds. Borrowing money is fine). This is true until the Fed reacts strongly - ie. until inflation hits double digits, then watch out, but that won't happen for a while.

There is a third economic driver, which I haven't seen too many people talk about. Our economy is getting more and more efficient. I believe this is what has driven general overall prosperity (and stock market performance) over the last ten years. Basically, the economy has been slowly adopting Internet based technologies over the past, well 20 years, but it accelerated in the past ten. And the pandemic has accelerated it even more. It was absolutely routine to fly for a day for a two hour meeting, and fly back a year ago. Now it is absolutely routine for that same meeting to take only two hours out of your day.

A more efficient economy gooses the stock market even more.

So, what am I saying? I guess I am saying we have more runway left in this bull cycle than many fear.
 
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#2,949
Sanny said:
Any thoughts on ZM regarding the potential S&P500 inclusion?
Same question for SQ?
Click to expand...

UPDATE: "The S&P Composite 1500® and its component indices will no longer add companies with multiple share class structures" so the rest is wrong

My thoughts on ZM S&P500 inclusion (mostly speculative)
The rules of S&P500 relevant to ZM inclusion are 1) 12+ months after IPO (check) 2) profitability in the recent 4 quarters (check with 6 quarters positive already) 3) 5+% voting rights held in the hands of the public ( a miss here with 99% of voting rights belonging to Class B stock holders)
Here comes a Jan 12 secondary, which made 3) a check " Outstanding shares of Class B common stock will represent approximately 81.2% of the voting power of our outstanding capital stock immediately following this offering."
So I speculate that we can see ZM S&P500 inclusion any day now after Jan 12 secondary.
Thoughts?
 
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#2,950
Sanny said:
My thoughts on ZM S&P500 inclusion (mostly speculative)
The rules of S&P500 relevant to ZM inclusion are 1) 12+ months after IPO (check) 2) profitability in the recent 4 quarters (check with 6 quarters positive already) 3) 5+% voting rights held in the hands of the public ( a miss here with 99% of voting rights belonging to Class B stock holders)
Here comes a Jan 12 secondary, which made 3) a check " Outstanding shares of Class B common stock will represent approximately 81.2% of the voting power of our outstanding capital stock immediately following this offering."
So I speculate that we can see ZM S&P500 inclusion any day now after Jan 12 secondary.
Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Does ZM have multiple classes of stock? If so, that excludes them from being added to the S&P500. (They made that change to the rules in 2017 to exclude SNAP from being included.)
 
#2,951
D Unit said:
View attachment 620712
I've been following this stock for awhile... They just received a patent yesterday and are prep'd for a good run. I expect it to 10x but you guys know the deal... this is not financial advise.

Other stocks for you guys to watch are Peter Thiel's BWTN with high growth potential and Ark's accumulation of PACB.
Click to expand...

I really hope you guys got in on this when I posted it at $1.01. PACB is also up 50% since last month too.
sens.PNG
 
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#2,952
MP3Mike said:
Does ZM have multiple classes of stock? If so, that excludes them from being added to the S&P500. (They made that change to the rules in 2017 to exclude SNAP from being included.)
Click to expand...
My bad, you are right.
I was relying on the 5% voting rights by the public. Just looked in SP500 publication and it states "The S&P Composite 1500® and its component indices will no longer add companies with multiple share class structures."
 
#2,954
Twooz said:
Wanting to get in on ARKG, but I am also European as one of the former posters said.

Thoughts on simply buying into their 4 top holdings which currently is about 25% of the ETF?
PACB
TDOC
TWST
CRSP
Click to expand...

There's no reason why you couldn't just mirror what ARKG does since they show their allocations every day. Just pay attention to buys and sells since the ARK funds are indeed actively managed.

Just FYI - I did an analysis for my growth stock basket 2020 performance versus Nasdaq and ARKK (the most diversified of their funds). ARKK handily beat NASDAQ and I handily beat ARKK (I did the analysis properly factoring in when I bought and sold, and doing an alternate side by side analysis of what would have happened if all my buys and sells were for ARKK). Of course my TSLA holdings was what blew it out of the water compared to ARKK. So I went further and took out my TSLA gains relative to ARKK and to be a bit fairer, some losses compared to ARKK in more boring growth stocks like AMZN and GOOGL. Anyways, in that analysis, I still came out a bit ahead of ARKK.

My point being that, yes, buying ARKK or ARKG works. But you can also do better.
 
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#2,955
Twooz said:
Wanting to get in on ARKG, but I am also European as one of the former posters said.

Thoughts on simply buying into their 4 top holdings which currently is about 25% of the ETF?
PACB
TDOC
TWST
CRSP
Click to expand...
Buying an individual stock that you aren't intimately familiar with is risky, especially in a field like genomics. However, IMO, CRSP is one you may want to consider. It seems very likely they end up one of the big winners in the long run. In the short to medium term, the stock is likely to be more volatile than even TSLA.

I believe TDOC is for real and will thrive long term. However, many feel it will sink as the pandemic subsides. Another threat is Amazon may jump into telehealth, become a direct competitor and overwhelm them. TDOC is not a genomics company.

Everyone really seems to be hot to trot on PACB. I don't know enough to comment.

I have literally no clue about TWST.

The good thing about ARKG is genomics will probably go nuclear in the next 5 years and ARKG will reward you accordingly. But there will be losers and buying individual stocks opens you up to losing.
 
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#2,958
Cosmacelf said:
There's no reason why you couldn't just mirror what ARKG does since they show their allocations every day. Just pay attention to buys and sells since the ARK funds are indeed actively managed.
Click to expand...

All fair points.

If you're investing with taxable assets, however, you may want to use ARKG instead of replication. ETFs allow you to only realize capital gains when you buy or sell the fund itself (mostly).

Deferring capital gains (and converting short term gains into long-term gains) is almost always preferrable to incurring them on every trade.

Of course, if you're using tax-sheltered assets, it doesn't matter and you could probably replicate just fine (with ARKG would be front-running you by a day).
 
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