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Trading along will Tilray due to the upcoming merger. Nice pop in both.

I've been in on APHA for a while and they seem to track each other where APHA is about 65% of TLRY. What I can't figure out is why the relationship between the two is like that given that the merger news stated that APHA shareholders will receive .8381 shares of TLRY. Am I missing something? It seems like APHA is a deal right now relative to TLRY if that is the case.
 
I've been in on APHA for a while and they seem to track each other where APHA is about 65% of TLRY. What I can't figure out is why the relationship between the two is like that given that the merger news stated that APHA shareholders will receive .8381 shares of TLRY. Am I missing something? It seems like APHA is a deal right now relative to TLRY if that is the case.
Good point. Market is probably factoring risk of the deal falling through. Potentially a good arbitrage opportunity though.

Are pot companies now considered "tech"?;)
 
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Is anyone following the solar stocks? Solaredge, SunPower, First Solar, etc. Most of them had a run after the election, but that has cooled. First Solar didn’t have as much of a run as the others, but I’ve been eyeballing those the past couple days as investable. I’m thinking the new administration will eventually put out some concrete environmental proposals that could benefit these and they are now trading between 12-27% off their highs
 
Is anyone following the solar stocks? Solaredge, SunPower, First Solar, etc. Most of them had a run after the election, but that has cooled. First Solar didn’t have as much of a run as the others, but I’ve been eyeballing those the past couple days as investable. I’m thinking the new administration will eventually put out some concrete environmental proposals that could benefit these and they are now trading between 12-27% off their highs
ENPH has been very nice to me, buying on the way up from $10, still 400% gain
i really like micro inverters over string inverters, having had both on 2 different PV arrays.
just need a 50% bigger array
 
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Regarding ABML vs. Redwood:

I just finished watching this new The Limiting Factor vid last night (which I find all this stuff fascinating), but it got me thinking and maybe @Xepa777 can chime in with more expertise, but - Alex is saying that Li cannot be extracted without some kind of energy in the process (25:25 mark). I remember hearing JB in a recent interview talk about how his goal at Redwood was to reverse engineer the battery.

So Redwood uses high temp processes vs. ABML to parse out the materials from the battery, but what if Redwood is actually just doing the research NOW for Tesla's extraction process.....

idk...just thinking out loud...

 
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Regarding ABML vs. Redwood:

I just finished watching this new The Limiting Factor vid last night (which I find all this stuff fascinating), but it got me thinking and maybe @Xepa777 can chime in with more expertise, but - Alex is saying that Li cannot be extracted without some kind of energy in the process (25:25 mark). I remember hearing JB in a recent interview talk about how his goal at Redwood was to reverse engineer the battery.

So Redwood uses high temp processes vs. ABML to parse out the materials from the battery, but what if Redwood is actually just doing the research NOW for Tesla's extraction process.....

idk...just thinking out loud...


Tesla has all the PhDs and chemists they need to try and figure that out themselves. If you listen to Alex Grant's interview - he rightly points out that you need an abundance of disciplines to research extraction and work up a plan for mining. I don't see a single geologist on redwood's payroll - which would suggest they'd be investigating technology for mining applications. I think they're focusing on recycling of batteries and broader e-waste based on everything they've said publicly, and all research seems to support that. https://www.linkedin.com/company/redwood-materials/people/
 
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Is anyone following the solar stocks? Solaredge, SunPower, First Solar, etc. Most of them had a run after the election, but that has cooled. First Solar didn’t have as much of a run as the others, but I’ve been eyeballing those the past couple days as investable. I’m thinking the new administration will eventually put out some concrete environmental proposals that could benefit these and they are now trading between 12-27% off their highs
I have a bunch of these renewables: spwr, enph, sedg, fslr, and run. I have been trading in and out for these for years. 20% to 30% and higher spikes have been common with a dip the next day. I turned $100k into $450k trading these over the last 3 or 4 years. Since November 2020, I have decided to hold these long. SPWR is heavily shorted. Historically SPWR goes up a lot just before earnings (2/17) then, like TSLA, even with a decent earnings call, will dip the next day. With our new administration, I'm going to be more conservative with my trading on all these aformentioned, I plan to hold these longer.

Other EV related stocks/spacs I'm holding are actc, ciic, eose, nga, kndi, and xpev. Compared to my TSLA holdings I have, these are chump change, but they can be a lot more fun!
 
I've treated this thread as a general "other" stocks thread. It seems there's at least a few others who do the same. If that's not cool, we should start a new thread that's not Tesla/not tech.

I wasn't being too serious with that comment. And hey, if Dominos can market itself as a tech company, it's not any more of a stretch to call Aphria one as well.
 
Truly amazing arbitrage opportunity between CCIV shares ($32.50) and CCIV warrants ($13.00). Strike price for the warrants is $11.50 so their true value should be $21.00.

I bought a bunch of warrants and sold the same amount (in shares) of calls. I pocketed some credit ($1.75 per warrant) and if the SP end up below my call strikes on expiration (August), I basically get all those warrants for free. If the SP goes above my call strikes, then I exercise the warrants to pay off the sold calls and make an extra $26 per share (my average strike price on the calls is $37.50). The only risk is that I can't exercise the warrants when I want as I have to wait until Sept. 18, 2021 or 30 days after a merger (whichever is later) to exercise them. I plan to roll the sold calls out from August as needed to avoid a margin call (I'd be forced to sell the warrants and lose some of my profit) if CCIV keeps going way up. This is truly an amazing very low risk opportunity.

Be careful with this strategy... The same thing happened previously with $QS, $NKLA etc. There's a reason that warrants are underpriced:
Basically the market is saying the common shares are too expensive and cannot last.
Unfortunately, when you are short commons, you might get those early exercised: Eg. if $CCIV moons to $120, someone will exercise those calls and you'll be short 100-commons. This is _fine_ in normal circumstances, but if $CCIV goes to $100+ I suspect _many_ people will be trying to short. Which means you'll have to pay borrow fees (probably 100%+) for maintaining that short position. You'll either have to close out the position as a loss, or, end up with risk you didn't calculate previously.

Be careful.
 
My God Hindenberg just eviscerated Clover! Almost Nikola-level omg. Brutal. Savage. Clover Health: How the “King of SPACs” Lured Retail Investors Into a Broken Business Facing an Active, Undisclosed DOJ Investigation

As someone who works in a healthcare insurer, I will say I've always preferred Oscar over Clover when referencing new-age players ;)
Somehow I got out of that SPAC meme with a 45% gain rofl!
As soon as the target was announced I decided not to HODL the SPAC, chamath or no chamath.
 
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Unity Software (U) was body-slammed AH tonight because their forward guidance was below expectations.

Might be the last opportunity to ever get shares this cheap. IMO, a major "buy the dip" opportunity.

Sitting at $134.00 AH on Feb 4, 2020.
Shh... Let it fall... Bring it back to $100 so I can write some Puts to finance my shares ;)

Seriously though 5-year target on the company: $250 (base case), $400+ (bull case).

Historically my price targets have been extremely conservative: $TSLA my target was $750 pre-split a few years ago (now at $4k+). $AMD my target was $75 for 2023 (already at $100 haha!).
 
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Be careful with this strategy... The same thing happened previously with $QS, $NKLA etc. There's a reason that warrants are underpriced:
Basically the market is saying the common shares are too expensive and cannot last.
Unfortunately, when you are short commons, you might get those early exercised: Eg. if $CCIV moons to $120, someone will exercise those calls and you'll be short 100-commons. This is _fine_ in normal circumstances, but if $CCIV goes to $100+ I suspect _many_ people will be trying to short. Which means you'll have to pay borrow fees (probably 100%+) for maintaining that short position. You'll either have to close out the position as a loss, or, end up with risk you didn't calculate previously.

Be careful.
I appreciate the advice and I did consider that scenario. I figure the only way CCIV moons is if a well-received merger is announced. Then I can sell the warrants right away or exercise the warrants 30 days later and sell the shares, then close out the new short position from the exercised calls. I’d still end up with profit because the warrants would go up similarly to the share price.
 
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