What other tech stock to consider?

[Cattledog]

More like betting on turnaround in 18 months and the market anticipating abottom, as it normally does. I also have J24 at $10. I think they'll beat Lucid and Rivian, and the others, over the next 6-24 months. It's not an investment that's looking for an 8% annual return. Trading higher risk for potential higher reward.

 

[FlatSix911]

Tune in for the earnings call tomorrow afternoon.

Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2022 financial results preview: Here's what to expect

Tesla (TSLA) is set to announce its second-quarter 2022 financial results on Wednesday, July 20, after the markets close. As...

electrek.co

Tesla Q2 2022 revenue
"For revenue, analysts generally have a pretty good idea of what to expect, thanks to the delivery numbers, but it is harder this quarter to adjust down instead of up this time. The Wall Street consensus for this quarter is $16.521 billion, and Estimize, the financial estimate crowdsourcing website, predicts a significantly higher revenue of $17.186 billion.

It’s rare that the range is this significant, but it is to be expected with this quarter’s conditions. It is also interesting that revenue estimates are not that far off from the previous quarter, despite already knowing that Tesla delivered about 50,000 fewer vehicles this time around. Here are the predictions for Tesla’s revenue over the past two years: Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Street consensus are in gray, and actual results are in green:"

 

[wdolson]

The market appears to think the news is going to be good. Tesla as been doing well the last couple of days.

I recall about a year ago someone here was predicting Tesla would be 2X the price at the time within a year. It was around $800 then, I think that's a missed prediction.

Though almost all tech stocks have been taking a beating the last few months.

 

[JRP3]

Wrong thread.

 

[phantasms]

To bring it back to on topic, anyone else been buying $FOUR hand over fist at these levels?

 

[JRP3]

To bring it back to on topic, anyone else been buying $FOUR hand over fist at these levels?

I have no insight into what's happening with the company and haven't added.

 

[Cosmacelf]

To bring it back to on topic, anyone else been buying $FOUR hand over fist at these levels?

Earnings come out August 4th. Got any predictions?

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Anybody have any thoughts on The Metals Company $TMC? Deep sea mining company, going after polymetallic modules on the seabed, primarily battery metals. Stock has been beat up badly, but development seems to be going well.

 

[wdolson]

Anybody have any thoughts on The Metals Company $TMC? Deep sea mining company, going after polymetallic modules on the seabed, primarily battery metals. Stock has been beat up badly, but development seems to be going well.

Mining stocks are always volatile and a mining company that isn't producing anything yet is not going to do very well. Once they start operations the stock should improve. Those nodules are extremely easy to refine, easier than standard ore, so once they get them up they will be very valuable.

It's a long term investment, the stock may not move much for another year, but I expect once they start mining it should get up into the $10 range at least.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Mining stocks are always volatile and a mining company that isn't producing anything yet is not going to do very well. Once they start operations the stock should improve. Those nodules are extremely easy to refine, easier than standard ore, so once they get them up they will be very valuable.

It's a long term investment, the stock may not move much for another year, but I expect once they start mining it should get up into the $10 range at least.

True. From what I understand they have been testing a prototype "harvester" over the last few months. The International Seabed Authority I guess is the governing body concerning permitting/licensing of mining operations, and haven't really accomplished much-in the decade(s) they have been in existence. You're right on refining-rather than start with low-concentration ores, these are nearly pure metals, including manganese, cobalt, copper and nickel. Rather than "refining"-they just need to be separated. Should be far less environmental degradation than land-based mining and refining.

 

[betstarship]

Never mind, I changed my mind. It'd be great to get back into it with a LLC sometime down the line. It's a lot of fun!

Never mind to my never mind. The cold founder e-mails, asking for investment, just don't stop on LinkedIn.

 

[CLK350]

From Brad Ferguson -after his long tease (meaning it's already bought for the funds he manages)
"We are initiating coverage of $AEHR Aehr Testing Systems who has a proprietary enabling technology allowing silicon carbide (SiC) chipmakers to quickly scale production and lower waste. SiC chips are critical in EV traction inverters, on-board chargers, & power management"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1550202665329737729

 

[Cosmacelf]

Here's another basket recommendation. These three stocks are highly speculative biotech stocks. The most likely future return on any one of these is 0 or 5x or more. They all have great technology in the gene editing space. They all have therapies in various stages of clinical trials that 100% cure things like specific forms of cancer or genetic disease. They are all small cap stocks. I did my own research looking for companies that have published clinical results showing very high cure rates based on genetic technology and these three companies popped out.

Poseida Therapeutics (PSTX), market cap $168M
Arcellx (ACLX), market cap $938M
Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO), market cap $1.95B

 

[wdolson]

From Brad Ferguson -after his long tease (meaning it's already bought for the funds he manages)
"We are initiating coverage of $AEHR Aehr Testing Systems who has a proprietary enabling technology allowing silicon carbide (SiC) chipmakers to quickly scale production and lower waste. SiC chips are critical in EV traction inverters, on-board chargers, & power management"

View attachment 831612

https://twitter.com/x/status/1550202665329737729

I'm not familiar with specific tests for silicon carbide, but I have been working in the area of post production integrated circuit testing since 2010. IC makers have various tests they throw at new ICs to fix problems and increase yields.

From what little I read about AEHR, it looks like what they have overlaps with the tech used for standard ICs, and there are already a number of companies in that niche. They may be doing something novel and unique, but they might not be. It's hard to tell from what they've published.

 

[Buckminster]

Why Is Lemonade (LMND) Stock in the Spotlight?
Lemonade now have car insurance licences in most states through their acquisition. Down to $1bn market cap. Triple down or cut losses?

 

[betstarship]

Does anyone have experience managing an LLC for angel investments? If so, can I dm you to ask some questions?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Here's another basket recommendation. These three stocks are highly speculative biotech stocks. The most likely future return on any one of these is 0 or 5x or more. They all have great technology in the gene editing space. They all have therapies in various stages of clinical trials that 100% cure things like specific forms of cancer or genetic disease. They are all small cap stocks. I did my own research looking for companies that have published clinical results showing very high cure rates based on genetic technology and these three companies popped out.

Poseida Therapeutics (PSTX), market cap $168M
Arcellx (ACLX), market cap $938M
Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO), market cap $1.95B

So the smallest market cap of my basket has fixed any cash issues they might have had by partnering with Roche this morning. Deal terms look very favorable for PSTX. Stock price, less than an hour after opening is up … holy *sugar* 112%. For a while there it was only up 45% and that’s what I was going to post before I checked…

Anyhoo, these stocks are still good value IMHO.

 

[bballshinobi]

Why Is Lemonade (LMND) Stock in the Spotlight?
Lemonade now have car insurance licences in most states through their acquisition. Down to $1bn market cap. Triple down or cut losses?

My humble opinion is no LMND isn't really a worthwhile investment. I was an insurance agent for 10 years so I've sat through my share of sales, underwriting, and company performance meetings. I am guessing for most tech investors LMND's attraction is its claim of AI capability, but I think it's both overstated in significance and also irrelevant in impact.

Insurance is a simple business: you take money in and you hope to keep some of it after paying for overhead and claims. There is nothing revolutionary about this business model, and AI can only improve the efficiency of your company but it won't propel you head and shoulders above the competition.

Underwriting/pricing:
LMND touts its AI underwriting, but it's not like they stick a camera inside your home to analyze your lifestyle or habits, nor do they ask for more financial information from you to analyze what type of consumer you are. They ask for the same type of information every other insurance company gets - age, location of the house, and most importantly your credit scores (in the states that allows it). Yea sure, an AI can be faster than a human actuary running these numbers but so what? Insuranc rates don't need to be update in real time. Insurance companies typically only update weekly, monthly, or quarterly. Having an AI run your underwriting/pricing gives you very little advantage over a tradtional insurance company that hires a team of 10 actuaries.

Investing
Insurance companies generate extra profit by investing their cash flow. I am sure LMND's AI doesn't know how to invest though, because if it does and is good at it, they won't be an insurance company.

Staff Overhead
This is where LMND can save a tremendous amount of money, becauses even though anybody who is intelligent enough to have a high school degree can work for an insurance company as an agent, adjuster, and/or customer service rep, it takes a lot of training to get them up to speed. It's very typical for a good CSR to make $40-50k just because she has been with you for so long she knows how to answer every typical customer questions and it takes too damn long to train somebody new. The job is actually very simple - you answer the phone, take payment, and tell the customer to call the claims department lol - but the training and learnign curve can be steep. Same with claim adjusters, the job is easy, but the time and cost to train is high. If LMND's AI can truly solve this, then they will be a revolutionary company. They don't need to be in the insurance industry. They would accomplish what UiPath is trying to do and make so much more money by basically helping the world cut out all service and knowledge based jobs.

Claims
LMND wants you to think their AI can solve claims quickly and efficiently. This can only be done for the smallest claims though as anything more complicated still has to be handle be a human adjuster. If LMND's AI is so good it can handle claim adjusting, they won't be an insurance company - they will make so much more money by selling this AI to any business that requires intelligent workers.


What I am trying to say is... yes, insurance is an dinosaur industry that badly needs revolution. However, what you need is what Tesla Insurance is doing - monitoring your driving habits and FSD usage - instead of using AI to do actuary and pay small claims. Just because you put the word "AI" in your investor presentation powerpoint doesn't make you an AI company.

 

[Cosmacelf]

So the smallest market cap of my basket has fixed any cash issues they might have had by partnering with Roche this morning. Deal terms look very favorable for PSTX. Stock price, less than an hour after opening is up … holy *sugar* 112%. For a while there it was only up 45% and that’s what I was going to post before I checked…

Anyhoo, these stocks are still good value IMHO.

PSTX closed today up 85%, but then they announced a shelf registration follow on stock offering and the after hours price dropped 17% from that 85% rise. Don’t know what it’ll do on the open tomorrow, but there might be a buying opportunity. Be aware that normally volume is very thin on this stock (it took me over a week to build a position), but certainly today and probably tomorrow there will be volume to be had.

If PSTX is like ACLX which also did a secondary offering soon after its own IPO, the secondary won’t negatively affect the stock price much.

 

[Gigapress]

Elon finally confirmed on the Full Send podcast this week that he does indeed own a Boxabl in Texas near Starbase.

This raises my belief in the Boxabl team’s credibility because they’d been hinting at this for a long time without any direct proof, so there was the possibility that they were just fabricating the story for social media traction.

Previously Elon had denied on Twitter that he lives in a Boxabl but said it is a “cool product tho”. Now we know that statement was technically true because he said that his prototype Boxabl is a guest dwelling for visiting friends but he lives in the preexisting traditional house he bought. Elon had limited comments about his Boxabl on Full Send but he said it “seems good” and clearly he must believe it’s good enough for his close friends to stay at.

Normally I ignore celebrity product endorsements but this one is pretty significant in my opinion, and will be even more so if SpaceX does end up buying these for rapidly deployable employee housing as the rumors say. I also think that if there’s seriously going to be a Mars colony where efficiency in material logistics and human labor are critical, then Boxabl’s strong, thermally insulated, foldable, easy-to-deploy design architecture would be perfect if tweaked for Mars. Starship has a 30ft diameter and so I think at least 3 folded Boxabls could fit in the available cross-sectional area of the payload bay.

Boxabl also recently used a portion of the investment fundraiser to begin work on their larger factory and they say their initial order for the US military is completed and now houses for retail customers are getting ready to ship.

I’m going to invest in Boxabl later this year if the funding round is still open and TSLA appreciates enough for my LEAPS to blow up in value. The big TSLA discount in the last few months is the only reason I haven’t chipped in to the Boxabl fundraising round already.

I haven’t seen anything since Tesla that has as much potential to quickly solve major global environmental and social issues while earning big money. They’re still early stage but the more I’ve researched them and analyzed their business model the better it looks. My notes and financial model are on this spreadsheet I linked when posting in April about Boxabl with a bunch of updates since then.

Not advice.

Boxabl

Product Casita Price,$60,000 Interior area,361,sqft Price per sqft,$166 Features,9'6" ceilings 8' windows Tight tolerances compared to traditional builds Energy Efficient: LED lighting, Thermal insulation of laminate walls has R of 23, no lumber studs with thermal bridging,<< 5/13/2023: Go look...

docs.google.com

Boxabl discussion at 41:45: