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They say on the page that they have 4 losers, they show them in red, and they summarize winners/losers at the bottom of the page.

So, what makes you think otherwise?

also, keep in mind that these firms/sites will do whatever they can to give perception of success even if they are losing money. Just because it says one thing on their website, it does not necessarily mean what you are interpreting it to mean...is Citron Research registered with a US financial Regulator in any capacity?
If not then they can say pretty much whatever they want and it would be hard to PROVE them otherwise.

Put it this way...if Citron was really as successful as they say then they would have their accounts audited by accountants so they could launch a Hedge Fund with their audited performance and make a lot more money for themselves then they do now.

always be skeptical of trading records people claim to have, unless audited and they are registered in some capacity then I would not believe it ever.
 
They say on the page that they have 4 losers, they show them in red, and they summarize winners/losers at the bottom of the page.

So, what makes you think otherwise?

The fact that they don't say "price at which we opened position" and rather choose "price of stock when report was published" makes me less likely to believe that they are actually reporting their success. It's a slight issue of semantics, they are reporting the change in the stock price since their report, not since they opened their position.

A second thought is that they would be most likely not be keeping a static position. I think that they must be hedging and managing risk over time, especially if they are short so they must be constantly making minute changes in the position, which affects their end cost basis. If they make a massive profit, they prob take some profit off the table, right? Or maybe not, i'm just speculating.

Third, an observation: I was short selling ANGI's list, about a year ago when it was at 26 dollars (it's now down to like 10 or 12, but i covered at 20). Halfway through the day, I saw massive volume of volume for a 10-20 min period. Then 30 min later the Citron Report trashing ANGI was released. So I think that citron takes a position very shortly before releasing the document. That would go to supporting your argument that they are reporting their success.

I don't know-I was just putting it up for discussion that they may not be reporting their own success.
 
GoPro shares will start trading tomorrow.

I shared some thoughts about GoPro a few pages back in this thread. I like the company, the product, the leadership. I think there is a lot of potential for them to monetize the millions of hits their videos get....

I'm not sure about some of their financials and how they crafted their IPO with insiders cashing out right away.... however, tomorrow I will take a small position.
 
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Clmason- I'm curious what price you got in at. I was ready at 8:00 when they started trading and it was already up like 30%. I ended up taking a small position at $31. Hope it was the right move because i've been waiting to have a stake in GoPro just don't know if i over paid. If not, it was just a small position.
 
Clmason- I'm curious what price you got in at. I was ready at 8:00 when they started trading and it was already up like 30%. I ended up taking a small position at $31. Hope it was the right move because i've been waiting to have a stake in GoPro just don't know if i over paid. If not, it was just a small position.

I also got in at $31. I view this as a stake in the ground for a larger position and plan to average in over the next few months, buy small lots on weakness.
 
K
I agree. I will be looking to add as well. I had a feeling the IPO would take off the first day. So far it looks to be holding just above $31. Maybe in a few weeks I will try and buy a leap.
I also bought some GPRO. Two small lots with average price of 31.20. It will be interesting to see how it goes over the short term. I suspect it will dip 20%.
 
With Go Pro, are you guys just buying off of feeling or do you have your own personal models (ie., revenue, profit, growth rate, multiple given, etc) worked out for a long-term hold?

Dave, mine is definately just a feeling. My brother, who models everything along with some hedge fund friends won't touch it.....but they also advised me not to invest in TSLA in March 2013....
 
With Go Pro, are you guys just buying off of feeling or do you have your own personal models (ie., revenue, profit, growth rate, multiple given, etc) worked out for a long-term hold?

I think you can model GoPro all day long a not be very accurate because of their wildcard revenue stream.

They have yet to monetize the user created videos which get millions of hits. I don't know what a click is worth to their advertisers but I think its safe to assume it is a targeted and enthusiastic audience. For example, if you are watching a scuba dive video recorded on a GoPro, the odds are you are interested in such things. The scuba gear supplier will pay for this ad space to reach their customer base. This model will scale very large to every niche.

So GoPro has their hardware and accessory revenues that is published and you can model it.... but that's about as far as you can get until their new market is opened and we see some numbers. I don't think is crazy for GoPro to earn a $10B market cap is they execute well. Their ad revenues could exceed their hardware revenues.

I'm not saying its a game changer company but it is interesting and to me it is worth taking a position.
 
Dave, mine is definately just a feeling. My brother, who models everything along with some hedge fund friends won't touch it.....but they also advised me not to invest in TSLA in March 2013....

I think you can model GoPro all day long a not be very accurate because of their wildcard revenue stream.

They have yet to monetize the user created videos which get millions of hits. I don't know what a click is worth to their advertisers but I think its safe to assume it is a targeted and enthusiastic audience. For example, if you are watching a scuba dive video recorded on a GoPro, the odds are you are interested in such things. The scuba gear supplier will pay for this ad space to reach their customer base. This model will scale very large to every niche.

So GoPro has their hardware and accessory revenues that is published and you can model it.... but that's about as far as you can get until their new market is opened and we see some numbers. I don't think is crazy for GoPro to earn a $10B market cap is they execute well. Their ad revenues could exceed their hardware revenues.

I'm not saying its a game changer company but it is interesting and to me it is worth taking a position.

If you guys aren't doing your own modeling, then are you guys going in with stops in place? Also, did you guys read their S-1 filing or are you just going off of your general knowledge of their product?
 
I have a Gopro and I use it for recording events on the go eg diving, hunting , fishing

however, although the product is good , for $ 300 or $ 400 I would easily change to another
providers product eg Sony , Casio etc

it is not like a phone etc which by the use of the apps obtains customer loyalty

unless they can get some ongoing income , eg advertising, with their own channel, around customer videos , not a buy from my perspective
 
If you guys aren't doing your own modeling, then are you guys going in with stops in place? Also, did you guys read their S-1 filing or are you just going off of your general knowledge of their product?

Mine is general knowledge with a 20% stop loss on half and $20 on second half. Al

edit: I have 6k total investment at this point
 
Anyone else heard of OREX?
they have this new Contrave drug that could be huge once approved...time will tell. It is a binary event similar to TSLA before the S came out.

Do you know what phase of clinical trials it's in?

- - - Updated - - -

Never mind, found my answer. They were expecting approval on June 11th, but it looks like a decision was extended while FDA reviews more data. (Decision is now expected in September.) It's not unusual for FDA to do that (that's why I have white hair :)), but is really frustrating for a small company operating close to the margin.

FDA Postpones Approval Of Contrave: What's The Future Of Weight Loss Drugs? - Forbes
 
Kind of kicking myself. I watched GPRO bounce around $31 for a while yesterday as I did some research. Couldn't justify it, partly because of the declining sales figures and this supposed monetization of the content. I feel (liek others) that ads would be poorly received, and I don't know who'd spend money to watch someone dropping a cliff when Youtube, etc has tons of that content already available for free.

I supposed an interesting thing is that even at $200-$300 per unit, I've noticed a lot of car/plane/action videos that have like 5 or 6 of these cameras attached in various locations. So I guess I'm not exactly sure where the saturation occurs for some users.