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how about BA. the pe ratio only twenty with recent 17% decline in price despite an order back log on the order of several years. they really only have a single competitor and their product is out selling airbus. they make a compelling product that makes the increased fuel conservation compelling. they stock had been down because of battery issues (appear solved), four bodies behind on production despite producing planes at greater than twice the rate of last year. they will increase their production rate as needed. playing with options, an increase back to previous level could alone be a 4 bagger, not single digits
 
I picked up 20 shares of MBLY for around 38 bucks each. I plan on holding them for long enough that I regret only buying 20 lol. Since so much value is in the software and it governs such critical systems I expect the gross margins to soar in the future if they are able to remain clear market leaders. If the stock tanks to single digits ... I only bought 20 shares so ohh well :).
 
how about BA. the pe ratio only twenty with recent 17% decline in price despite an order back log on the order of several years. they really only have a single competitor and their product is out selling airbus. they make a compelling product that makes the increased fuel conservation compelling. they stock had been down because of battery issues (appear solved), four bodies behind on production despite producing planes at greater than twice the rate of last year. they will increase their production rate as needed. playing with options, an increase back to previous level could alone be a 4 bagger, not single digits
Ok promise last post on this
1. Earnings estimate increased, with PE of 20 stock price would go to 160
2. New 777X plane, building factory more fuel efficient
3. Order backlog increasing on 787
4. Increasing production on 737
airbus guessed very wrong on their monster plane, only one country ordering. They are now starting to work on 787 competitor. Earliest it could be available would be 2017
 
how about BA. the pe ratio only twenty with recent 17% decline in price despite an order back log on the order of several years. they really only have a single competitor and their product is out selling airbus. they make a compelling product that makes the increased fuel conservation compelling. they stock had been down because of battery issues (appear solved), four bodies behind on production despite producing planes at greater than twice the rate of last year. they will increase their production rate as needed. playing with options, an increase back to previous level could alone be a 4 bagger, not single digits

Which options are you referring to? Thanks.
 
Thanks for the info. Are you still bullish on AA?
Huge bull rolling over calls have over 8000 contracts. Always fades low volume month before report. This qtr suspect beat. Will start delivery of aluminum alloys for the ford f150. Last report they said in conference call that they were stockpiling it. So the production cost was in q2 but revenue will be in q3. Huge supplier for jets as well. It is no longer a aluminum company but more aluminum alloys and icing on cake is aluminum commodity price increasing. So far a 15 bagger. Tesla even larger of course but I have been doing option on aa since it was about 7.90.
 
I'm glad I sat out the the MBLY IPO. The more I've read about it the less I understand their valuation. Camera? Chip? C'mon - you can get that from Ebay. Their whole value has to be centered around software and it would seem to me, as suggested by several great posts above, that a company like Tesla for example could develop that kind of software quite rapidly.
Well, most value is in their ASIC (application specific IC) chip. And it is advantage and weakness simultaneously. Advantage because designing ASIC is expensive and somewhat cumbersome process that takes time. Not something that could be done in one year for computer vision algorithms.

But big problem with MBLY solution is that new set of algorithms, a so called deep learning started to dramatically outperform old computer vision algorithms in last few years. Here one screenshot from paper published last year (IIRC) by NYU group, notice real time per pixel parsing on notebook hardware.
And when I say dramatically outperform, with large enough training dataset deep learning based system will make order of magnitude less errors that whatever MBLY is using. Errors like seeing something that not in the frame or missing something that is actually there.

So in the long run MBLY would have to throw away tech they developed for 10+ years, and it would be hard decision to make for them. Some new startups that are based around new paradigm might be better positioned to take advantage of the market. Like Clarifai. And players like Nvidia and Qualcomm are developing ADAS systems/chips and are working with deep learning.

But in short term, I feel like ADAS market is about to explode, and MBLY could take advantage of that.

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Ok promise last post on this
1. Earnings estimate increased, with PE of 20 stock price would go to 160
2. New 777X plane, building factory more fuel efficient
3. Order backlog increasing on 787
4. Increasing production on 737
airbus guessed very wrong on their monster plane, only one country ordering. They are now starting to work on 787 competitor. Earliest it could be available would be 2017

I have invested in Boeing in the past, but remember that they do much more than build commercial airplanes. Although that business looks very good in future, their defense business is not as certain.
 
I'm hoping not to come across as being snippy, but I have a very, very difficult time at justifying any discussion either of Boeing or especially​ of Alcoa as being cool tech stocks.
 
I'm hoping not to come across as being snippy, but I have a very, very difficult time at justifying any discussion either of Boeing or especially​ of Alcoa as being cool tech stocks.

A legitimate question, and not snippy. However, while I can't speak about the technology of aluminum, I can say that Boeing is probably the most high tech company on the planet. They are managed by too many sycophants and troglodytes, and are more concerned with benefits and profits for executives before shareholders, but those who actually make the company a success - the engineers and mathematicians, are the best in the world. And just as on Wall Street, the best are sometimes employed to come up with ways to squeeze out more pennies for the bottom line at the expense of customers and employees. But Boeing is definitely a high tech company.
 
I'm hoping not to come across as being snippy, but I have a very, very difficult time at justifying any discussion either of Boeing or especially​ of Alcoa as being cool tech stocks.
That's because your uneducated about them. Alecia's use of new alloys has allowed jet engines to be lighter and burn hotter and hence more efficient and reduced fuel. Not all tech is chips and electronics. You need to broaden your horizons. Saving 12% fuel on jet travel allows for decreased green house gas. Alcoas new allow for truck wheels are also a large fuel saver increasing mpg of commercial trucking. No computer chips but reduction in green house gas. Alecia's new waste water treatment takes less energy to accomplish task, they are leasing the tech (can I use tech word here) resulting in cheaper more efficient recycling.
 
Chicken - I may be years away from when I would spend 16-20 hours each day on Wall St, but as someone who was an officer and senior member of the non-ferrous metals analysts' group, it's pretty funny for someone who doesn't know me to call me uneducated about Alcoa.

Making use of technology, creating technological improvements in your business is well and good and necessary and commendable, and woe betide Alcoa or Boeing or Procter & Gamble or Costco for not doing that, but so doing does not make these firms "cool tech stocks" any more than that Nvidia has an employee cafeteria makes it belong in the "restaurant" category.

OK, that said and off my chest, one could re-purpose this entire thread to encompass "What other stocks to consider"...but.....
 
OK, new subject (except sorta-kinda an old one). And I'm not in the "Contrarian" forum (perhaps I should be), so I cannot ask there:

Solar City's panel maker acquisiton, Silevo, boasts a cell architecture that they term a "hybrid n-type-based ‘tunnelling junction’". Can someone clue me in to how that relates to GTAT's "Merlin" system? Is it a competitor? Complementary? Absolutely not related in any way, shape or form?
 
OK, new subject (except sorta-kinda an old one). And I'm not in the "Contrarian" forum (perhaps I should be), so I cannot ask there:

Solar City's panel maker acquisiton, Silevo, boasts a cell architecture that they term a "hybrid n-type-based ‘tunnelling junction’". Can someone clue me in to how that relates to GTAT's "Merlin" system? Is it a competitor? Complementary? Absolutely not related in any way, shape or form?

not related- specialized form of thin-film crystalline substrate;
completely compatible with Merlin which provides same benefit to all cell structures including this one, as it is customizable to any cell type; fully expect SCTY/Silevo to utilize Merlin
 
A very small insight into the tech portion of our investment portfolio.

The keystone position is our holdings in TSLA. After coming down to the lesser-48 late winter 2013 and visiting one of the TM galleries, I spent the next two months learning all I could of the company, and I took an outsized position at the end of April at $53. Other than using some unexpectedly early profits in it and in SCTY that I used to purchase our P85, I then have consistently added to the position during times of weakness, notably the GS debacle in early Sept at $109, after the f*res at $159, and early this July at $218. Between this accretion and the stock price's spectacular performance, we now are in a situation where TSLA represents what is for me a lifelong high fraction of 28% of our investment portfolio.

Second in importance - if not in size - is our holdings in AAPL (sorry to bore you...). We have had a small holding from in the (split-adjusted) teens. We then made it a core holding in the rarefied days of early 2012 and adde to the position at the end of that year, for an average (split-adjusted) cost of $72.

Third was our position in GT Advanced Tech. I have had more than one eye out on the crystal business for many years, as for decades my father had been overly involved in a crystal fab company. This one was and remains poorly funded, replete with management problems, and to my now a bit more experienced eye lacking in a portfolio of cutting-edge tech. Most of its sales these years come from DoD contracts. Dad was brought in as COB to address all these issues; he did what he could but passed on before the company was able to capitalize on the assets it did have.

At any rate, my exposure to that firm led me to look around to see if there wasn't anything out there that did possess what I thought might have what it takes, and last summer that search led me to Tom Gutierrez and his GTAT. As I mentioned early in the life of this thread (post #191), last September we took an initial position, coming in at $7.12. At the time, the combination of it acquiring FSLR's shuttered Mesa fab plant (reminiscent of TM and NUMMI - monstrous size plant for pennies), the rumor of a hook-up with AAPL, and its position in sapphire production, all were key supercilious points (figger that out, word mavens....;)).
Now, partly as a result of my irritation at the actions of one of our key brokers - UBS - and its rather blatant and likely SEC-defying moves this past July, we took advantage of mid-month price weakness to add to the holding, picking up a good chunk more at $15.

We now know that GTAT not only is well on its way to becoming the world's overwhelmingly dominant sapphire producer, but that their whole tech lineup is far broader and deeper. Their process to replace diamond cutting of crystal boules with ion bombardment is close to earth-shattering (And, very literally, boule-shattering ;)); their "screen" technology for the PV module industry is set to provide panels with a several percentage-point increase in PV efficiency, which leads to all sorts of magnificent ramifications; their branching out into very interesting other boule growths could and, based on work brought to light by Sleepy's & Norse's tech forum (thanks, all of you) very, very likely do represent an entirely new billion-dollar development. A development that is or should be of utter absolute interest to any company that is looking to develop ultra-massive battery production factories, for example.

Fourth is our position in Mobileye. As we no longer will do any business with Goldman or Morgan Stanley, and my decades in the wilderness have frayed just about all my other, uh, useful contacts in Wall St, I couldn't come close to getting in on its IPO. So I bit the bullet and picked up a position during the first day of trade, as I reported here earlier. We got only half as many shares as I had hoped for, as that opening price just below $38 was too bitter and rich for me, inasmuch as Ihad looking to get in closer to the low $20s. And then I got chicken and didn't add up when it subsequently stumbled to the low $30s as many of the IPOers took their profits. But the reporting bandwagon has begun, and MBLY as of today is in the low 40s on good volume.

NVIDIA and QCOM are two holdings that I use as a foil to MBLY. Different strengths, but both also may play prominent roles in the reasonably near term in the automated driving field.

Lastly, we hold a modest position in good ol' Blue - IBM. I'm not the only one stumbling about in the wilderness; years ago the Armonk giant lost its way, but IBM has dedicated itself to improving on battery technology and their research labs do remain some of the world's finest.

In precentages, then, the investments line up as follows, together with the other names in our largest holdings:

#1. TSLA - 28.9%
#2. SCTY - 6.8%
#3. MBLY - 6.5%
#4. GTAT - 6.0%
#5. SPWR - 4.9%

IBM, NVDA & QCOM together add up to 2.9%. Our holdings in PV makers other than those listed aggregate to another 9.0%.

There is a strong tie amongst all these names. ALL play a dominant or supporting role in the transition to a sustainable electrical production industry, or to a an electromotive vehicular industry, or both.