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Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Nb1277, Jun 24, 2018.
Title says it all. Obviously we’re guessing
They'll probably get priority over others so what is the market for them?
The number depends on whether it can actually handle a track environment and is an actual sports sedan
In the next 6 months, they will be will probably be about 30 percent of vehicles. 6-12 months they will probably drop down under 10%.
In the 6 months, pent up demand will sell a fair number, but after the base model come available, it will tend to win for awhile.
That assumes that Tesla does not artificially restrict deliveries after first of year. If they do, then probably 20% performance, 40% split between current and base models.
The 3P will appeal to lots of non track going people - fast, good handling, medium sedan, cheap to run and maintain, versatile (also an economical and comfortable commuter ride). Actually, the last point is interesting. If you buy a BMW M , Audi S, or similar, you're forever stuck to the same level of high fuel consumption, and a not very relaxing ride (in case you ever are in the mood for that). An electric car is more flexible.
My guess it will make people think about getting a bigger loan to afford it, and will possibly get to 10% (I'm an optimist) of all 3 sales.
Percentage wise, I doubt Tesla will sell more Ps than BMW sells M3/4s and MB sells C63s. My guess is initially 5-6% dropping to 3-4% after the initial early adopters.
If you look at the Model 3 Invites spreadsheet, only 1.9% of people deferring are holding out for the P model (and that is a subset of the subset of people deferring). Overall, of the 3,675 entries, 7 were holding out for the P model. I think these numbers a skewed low but will still be a tiny part of entire sales.
So perhaps 8,000 - 10,000 Ps have been ordered thus far. This would roughly align with the 12-16 week delivery timeline, assuming 1K P3Ds/week and given that production on the new variants hadn't begun when that was announced. Seems like the performance variants will be on the shorter end.
It'll depend on what kind of yields they can get on AWD parts that are P level capable specs but 1000/week strikes me as very optimistic? Given that they just rolled the first one off the line, and how Tesla generally operates, I don't think they'll even be ready to deliver one to a non-Tesla customer for a few weeks (making sure that what's coming of the line doesn't have obvious issues).