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What price will Tesla charge for a straight upgrade to the ~400 mile Roadster pack?

Discussion in 'Roadster' started by pharma5, Sep 27, 2014.

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What price will Tesla charge for a straight upgrade to the ~400 mile Roadster pack?

  1. It will be free to all!

    1 vote(s)
    1.0%
  2. $5,000 with trade-in of old pack in good condition (i.e., normal wear & tear)

    5 vote(s)
    5.0%
  3. $10,000 with trade-in of old pack in good condition

    30 vote(s)
    30.0%
  4. $20,000 with trade-in of old pack in good condition

    37 vote(s)
    37.0%
  5. $30,000 with trade-in of old pack in good condition

    16 vote(s)
    16.0%
  6. $40,000 or so, kinda regardless of trade-in

    8 vote(s)
    8.0%
  7. Nothing, because there will be no upgrade...

    3 vote(s)
    3.0%
  1. pharma5

    pharma5 Roadster F#25

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    We have a poll question already about timing for the announced Roadster pack upgrade. This question looks at cost.

    To keep it simple, "straight upgrade" means choosing to swap out an older pack that is otherwise in good condition (i.e., "normal" wear & tear level of degradation for its mileage). It does not include swap in connection with a warranty claim or as part of a prepaid battery replacement agreement.

    Thanks in advance for participating.
     
  2. pharma5

    pharma5 Roadster F#25

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    Early returns: at 16 votes it's neck and neck between $10k and $20k...
     
  3. supersnoop

    supersnoop Tesla Roadster #334

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    My expectation is actually in the $12k- $15k range.
     
  4. djp

    djp Roadster 2.0 VIN939

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    What price will Tesla charge for a straight upgrade to the ~400 mile Roadster...

    When has any Roadster upgrade from Tesla ever been cheap? Price of double DIN and carbon fiber upgrades are prime examples.

    For a 400 mile range, the pack will need to be about 90 kWh. Tesla is charging $280 per kWh as a price differential between the 60 and 85.

    Model S Battery Pack - Cost Per kWh Estimate - Page 48

    Using the same pricing as a benchmark puts the new Roadster pack around $25K. Plus with some extra to recoup R&D, labour to custom build the pack and installation costs, I think it will be $30-40K at a minimum.
     
  5. samcarney

    samcarney Sam C

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    #5 samcarney, Sep 28, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2014
    I think the $10 and $20k votes are wishful thinking. I hope they are right! I voted $30k.
     
  6. wiztecy

    wiztecy Active Member

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    The Nissan Leaf replacement packs come in at $5k, hopefully that puts some pressure on Tesla to have a lower price. They need to make a statement that its cost effective to own an electric car over the years and if they shoot the pack up to $25k-40k I feel that'll scare many soon to be electric car customers away. Issue is the cost to produce the pack can't be as economical sound as it could be since the G-plant isn't up and running. However Nissan did it already so why can't Tesla do it, offer an economical replacement and bring more customers on board though confidence and security.
     
  7. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    400/245 * 53 = 86.5

    That's pretty close to the 85 kWh size that Tesla is now quite familiar with.
     
  8. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    How about a poll on "how much would you pay" for the upgrade right now?
    In 5 years?

    I think the price will be far higher than I am interested in paying.
     
  9. pharma5

    pharma5 Roadster F#25

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    I think we could add one like that after getting through the current set. These are focused right now on what we think Tesla is going to do - first the timing question, now price.

    In January I posted a question on reaction to a hypothetical 80 kwh pack to gauge relative importance of timing, cost, and circumstances of swapping. Those results are here:
    http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/25833-How-would-you-respond-if-an-80-kwh-Roadster-pack-were-available-in-2014
     
  10. GSP

    GSP Member

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    I am guessing the "400 mile" pack will be the identical 6831 cell design, but with model S cells.

    (85 kWh)(6831 cells/7104 cells) = 81.7 kWh

    I would guess that Tesla will have to charge about $30,000 to make a small profit after all fixed and per unit expenses.

    Of course, Tesla may decide to subsidize the replacement packs, like GM's $3000 Volt pack or Nissan's $5-6,000 Leaf pack. This helps sell the cars, and they can make good money on the other parts without potential buyers being concerned.

    GSP
     
  11. tom66

    tom66 Member

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    The only way I see Tesla subsidising pack replacements is if they find a way to use Roadster packs in some kind of grid storage scheme - perhaps like the SolarCity module that is currently made by Tesla, but a little bigger.
     
  12. djp

    djp Roadster 2.0 VIN939

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    It's 56 rated and 53 usable, similar to how the Model S is 85 rated and 80 usable.

    400/245 * 56 = 91.4kWh

    They'll need to use a higher capacity cell than the Model S to reach 400 miles range.
     
  13. yobigd20

    yobigd20 Well-Known Member

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    Much smaller and lighter car though. Won't need anywhere near as much juice for the same range.
     
  14. djp

    djp Roadster 2.0 VIN939

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    Yes, but that's already factored in to the range estimate. Roadster is 230 Wh/mi ideal, so would need about 92kWh to go 400 miles. The Roadster pack has less cells than the Model S pack - to get 92kWh out of a smaller pack they'll need to use higher capacity cells. Credit Suisse reported the Model X will use cells with 10% higher capacity, which fits well with the new Roadster pack estimate.
     
  15. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    Ah, thanks for the correction.
     
  16. bart513

    bart513 Member

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    Don't forget that Tesla is now making money by charging for almost everything when you bring your car in for service, whereas in the past everything seemed to be included. Plus they have the Federal carbon credits plus many other incentives that has allowed them to exist and make a profit. I agree that perhaps it is wishful thinking that they will charge $5K or less but it is within the realm of possibilities unless they upgrade more than the pack. Perhaps depending on how old the pack is, how many miles driven on the pack, the health of the pack will be taken into consideration.
     
  17. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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    Upgrade to 400 mile pack is not a money making operation for tesla. There are so many other investments/research they could do with the money. Minimal number of cars with less than all to buy upgrade is not a business model. I for one am grateful they will do this. I am not claiming that they will give away pack but realize this is more a diversion for them at a critical time. This is Elons way of supporting those who supported tesla in early stages
     
  18. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. Realistically, over the next 10 years Tesla may sell less than 1,000 of the upcoming higher capacity Roadster battery packs. Hardly a revenue stream. I think it possible, even likely, that Tesla will offer them at cost. What Tesla's cost will be is unknown but it seems like it would be over $10K per pack.

    In my dreams I see Elon personally subsidizing much of the cost as his way of thanking those first Roadster buyers for believing so strongly in Tesla and its goals that they were willing to spend over $100K on a completely new car from a brand new auto company.
     
  19. Doug_G

    Doug_G Lead Moderator

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    We all have our dreams...
     
  20. dhrivnak

    dhrivnak Active Member

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    One reason that Tesla may error on the side of affordability is to prove to the Model S and Model X people that batteries ARE replaceable and will not cost more than the purchase of a new car. The battery, life and cost are two of the most cited concerns against owning an EV. If the pack were to come out at $30,000 many argue, correctly so that $30,000 buys a LOT of gasoline. Enough to drive 200,000 miles here.
     

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