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What range will 90D battery really have? how much more than 85D does $3k get you?

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Yes, you most probably get the entirely new pack (just for the service action time reason) and the old one will Tesla reuse.

I think that 3k USD option is valid for the new car only, because right now there is known only statement, that the retrofit will be possible. I think that the price will be around 12k USD including installation labor, because this is already known prepaid price for the replacement battery pack. And this is also the main reason why Elon did not recommend this option for existing users.

$3k is the price of changing your config in the design studio to go to 90kWh pack.

If your car is already built, and especially if it's already delivered, pricing is unclear.

For anyone whose pack is already used, the price of upgrade is highly likely simply to be the price of a new 90kWh pack minus the value of a second hand 85kWh pack plus labor. That will easily be a 5-digit $ number, and it might well not start with a 1.

$12k is the quoted price of prepaying today for a battery that you cannot have for at least 8 years. So that prices assumes both that Tesla get to invest your cash for 8 years, and that at the end they get to give you a pack manufactured in 2023 in Brazilian Gigafactory number 3 at a fraction of today's production costs.