What Should Elon Include in His Top Secret Master Plan II

[EinSV]

I had forgotten this nugget from the original "Secret Master Plan":

"This is because the overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy towards a solar electric economy, which I believe to be the primary, but not exclusive, sustainable solution."​

The Tesla automotive and current Tesla Energy business (batteries/storage) are essential pieces of the puzzle, but the "overarching purpose" for Tesla always has been the transition to a clean, primarily solar electric economy. Solar is really at the heart and center of the vision and what brings everything together.

I think the Secret Master Plan 2 will have a heavy focus on solar, and how that brings all the pieces together for a sustainable future under one roof. Not just because Elon wants to close the SCTY deal, but because it is the final piece of the puzzle for Tesla, now that the automotive business is taking off and the storage business is about to.

 

[RDoc]

If the idea is to move away from hydrocarbons to solar-electricity, the plan would strongly focus on a major upgrade to the power grid and grid scale power storage.

 

[ecarfan]

If the idea is to move away from hydrocarbons to solar-electricity, the plan would strongly focus on a major upgrade to the power grid and grid scale power storage.

Elon's Secret Master Plans are about what he has control over and can work to accomplish. The power grid is outside of his control. Individuals and businesses of course can do their own energy storage right now with Powerwalls and Powerpacks.

 

[JeffK]

Personal solar power systems are still super expensive. With the decline of net metering in many states, Tesla and SolarCity need to make both panels and storage much cheaper otherwise people can't afford it. The storage part looks to be on track but I don't know the details on the panels.

 

[googlepeakoil]

I've got it !!!
A joint-venture with Nintendo for a car-based version of Pokemon Go - where you autopilot around a real-world road map with a heads-up 3d display showing you the Pokemon!
It'll send the shareprice up 50% - bit like it did Nintendo this week.

 

[malcolm]

Powerwall All-in-One
n x 6.4 kWh Battery Storage + Domestic Solar Panel system (+ optional integrated EV charging cable)

Powerpack All-in-One
n x 100kWh Battery Storage + Commercial Solar Array system (+ optional Supercharger Station with multiple stalls)

 

[xav-]

Whatever it is Let's hope that the markets will like the "master plan"..

..Cuz I doubt the cash flows of the model S will be sufficient to pay for all this stuff ($8 billion solar city deal including debt etc, 500k cars a year by 2018) etc etc..

I really hope that they are not going too far.. Last I check Tesla is not apple and Google. They don't have tens of billions of dollars sitting on bank accounts. I guess they are more like Amazon.

 

[JeffK]

Whatever it is Let's hope that the markets will like the "master plan"..

..Cuz I doubt the cash flows of the model S will be sufficient to pay for all this stuff ($8 billion solar city deal including debt etc, 500k cars a year by 2018) etc etc..

I really hope that they are not going too far.. Last I check Tesla is not apple and Google. They don't have tens of billions of dollars sitting on bank accounts. I guess they are more like Amazon.

The two companies Tesla and SolarCity combined would bring in 4.5 billion dollars of revenue a year as is. Sales of the Model 3 preorders alone will bring nearly 15 billion in revenue probably around 4 billion of that is pure profit.

While they are still investing a lot in infrastructure and not showing a profit, Tesla still has a very bright future.

 

[TEG]

With all the talk of complete home energy solution, including possibly having Tesla provide solar panels directly, I wonder if Model 3 could be made to support V2G ?

It would be nice to use your plugged-in model 3 as a back-up / buffer battery and not always require a powerwall.

 

[EV-lutioin]

Master Plan 2: Start delivering solar powered Teslas to Mars, by landing delivery rockets on a Martian sand barge?

 

[malcolm]

It would be nice to use your plugged-in model 3 as a back-up / buffer battery and not always require a powerwall.

Would be great to see V2G finally happen. You never know when the zombie apocalypse* will start.

*Er...can it happen inside a computer simulation** controlled by alien overlords?

**Aren't WE supposed to be the batteries***? Shouldn't that make it P2G?

***Can a zombie generate more bioelectricity than a 120 volt battery and over 25,000 BTUs of body heat? I'm thinking, no.

 

[Drax7]

if mpl2 includes free beer, all bets are off

 

[M0DEL³]

So.... Lots of speculation in the press today that the "Secret Master Plan" includes transitioning away from being a retail car manufacturer and towards evolving into an automated for-service public transportation service.

While this might be a good business model, and possibly quite beneficial for larger cities, it would not represent good news for many current Tesla fans, especially those in low-density/rural markets.

The idea of a future Tesla being an energy company that also rents automated Taxi's & Buses, instead of selling cars - isn't all that appealing. But... the idea of eventually doing all the above... isn't a terrible thought-experiment.

 

[Model 3]

Powerpack All-in-One
n x 100kWh Battery Storage + Commercial Solar Array system (+ optional Supercharger Station with multiple stalls)

No no, not optional! This is how he wants to expand the supercharger network

 

[electracity]

So.... Lots of speculation in the press today that the "Secret Master Plan" includes transitioning away from being a retail car manufacturer and towards evolving into an automated for-service public transportation service.

While this might be a good business model, and possibly quite beneficial for larger cities, it would not represent good news for many current Tesla fans, especially those in low-density/rural markets.

The idea of a future Tesla being an energy company that also rents automated Taxi's & Buses, instead of selling cars - isn't all that appealing. But... the idea of eventually doing all the above... isn't a terrible thought-experiment.

I agree, he certainly can't say that they are moving beyond the car business. It has to be an expansion that includes the private car business.

Clearly a large number of people do not buy that acquiring solarcity is vertical integration. Master plan II is to sell the solarcity acquisition, and probably rationalize entering the Uber business. "Clean Transport": Make the cars and the car power.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

SCTY press release today detailing 150 smart meters plus battery storage going to customers in San Jose in a collaboration with PG&E to show how "solar smart inverters and behind the meter energy storage could provide enhanced benefits to the grid".

Certainly this type of grid services tech will be integral to the next Master Plan.

 

[TEG]

press release link above didn't work for me.
Maybe some variant of this? :
PG&E Launches Distributed Energy Resource Projects Testing Technology to Unlock Benefits of the Grid | Business Wire

 

[Drivin]

They don't have tens of billions of dollars sitting on bank accounts. I guess they are more like Amazon.

They are "more like Amazon" in the same way my net worth is more like Oprah's than Bill Gates' net worth.

As of end of year 2015.

Amazon: Cash and ST investments: 19.9B (up 2.5B from previous year)
Tesla: Cash and ST investments: 1.2B (down 700M from previous year)

 

[adiggs]

Part of a sustainable solar based economy will be changing the way energy is created and consumed for industry / economy, not just personal home and transportation use. A big part. For manufacturing and many similar industrial sectors that get electricity via power lines, this all seems straightforward (panels on roofs, more panels elsewhere, wires to move the power around, battery banks to time shift and stabilize the power grid - all stuff we know conceptually from residential scale).

The two major industries I see significant changes needed for today, are transportation and agriculture.

Transportation - big rigs, long haul for example, air travel, mass transit, and shipping - is to some extent a further extension of what we're doing with personal transport. Keep extending into adjacent markets, and use the money from those adjacent markets to extend to additional adjacent markets. I see the Tesla Pickup Truck as being one instance in this very much larger world.

The other is agriculture. Here we need tractors that can recharge overnight, and be used all day doing planting, seeding, mowing, and other agricultural tractor tasks. Start with smaller scale farms and tasks, but eventually the big combines need to transition.

Our present food production processes are heavily dependent on fossil fuels for many of their inputs. The continued extension of these technologies into these two major industries (transport and agriculture) are what I want to see. I figure the transport side of things is obvious, and likely to be part of The Plan V2 - I want to see some notions about how the agriculture industry can be shifted (with a bonus - shifting agriculture to a solar based energy system can enable small to medium sized farms in poorer countries to leap over the whole fossil fuels thing, and increase their productivity).

 

[Gen3]

The plan will include maximizing the potential synergy with solar, storage and electric cars.
Becoming the best at manufacturing, increase manufacturing efficiency at least 3 fold.
Using money to develop even cheaper car, Gen 4.
Being a leader in autonomous technology.