what the heck happened to the reservation list?

[electracity]

OK, so some factors with reservations are: worldwide, right-hand drive, countries Tesla doesn't even yet have a presence in, finances don't yet permit purchase. All seem reasonable to me.

But shouldn't there still be a significant backlog of US base Model 3 reservations? Out of 380K-400K initial reservations couldn't we guess that there might be... 20K US base model 3 waiters? 50K? 100K? Months of production, even at a full 7K Model 3s per week, which Tesla doesn't seem to have achieved with the base model 3 yet?

I accept the factors that people have mentioned. But still find it difficult to believe that something funny isn't going on with the reservation list.

Thank you for your thoughts.

Alan

The only possible answer is that a great many reservation holders have not progressed to making a purchase. The short order lead time means that supply exceeds current demand.

This is the slowest time for auto sales, so the situation should improve. I had expected Tesla to easily be supply constrained for this year, but obviously that is not true.

In the long run this situation may work well for Tesla. The apparent improvement in model 3 quality is probably partly the result of the factory not needing to push to make every unit possible.

 

[adaptabl]

@adaptabl, while I can't speak for all the other incentives at the state level that may have come and gone, there's still half the federal tax credit available for the first half of the year. $3750 rather than $7500. So while I agree with you that some people have been on the razor's edge of affording a base Model 3 and had built in the full $7500 federal tax credit, it is difficult for me to believe that that calculation swayed the thinking of (presumably, just guessing here) 200K remaining reservation holders.

Waving my hands wildly and offering no justification whatsoever, I posit 10-15% of the reservation holders being in that boat, where the missing $3750 piece sinks the deal for them. OK, now we're down to 180K missing reservation holders.

Thanks,
Alan

I think many of the others are just not that exited as they were day one. They is always a frenzy when everyone wants something they can't get (Similar to video console releases in the past). Now that the 3 is not so new and readily available, interest has fallen.

 

[Pollux]

@Waiting43 - exactly!! So the reservation list should be even slower to drain!

I am not (knowingly) a Tesla shareholder. But if I were a Tesla shareholder, I think I'd want to know about major changes to the reservations list, as there are large financial implications. And business operations implications. I would think that this information would be material and reportable. I am troubled that this situation doesn't appear to add up.

Alan

 

[Pollux]

@electracity, @adaptabl - good points. But both of these have serious business & financial implications, if true.... and if the effects are large enough to swing production from a roughly 4-6 month backlog to a 4 week backlog. I would think these changes would be material and reportable.

Thanks,
Alan