what the heck happened to the reservation list?

[Pollux]

There were 400,000+ reservations for Model 3s queued up.

Even after deliveries in last '17 and '18 (LRR, Performance, etc.), I had the impression there will still a couple of hundred thousand reservations left.

Now, the base model is available and it looks like all M3s are available in something like 2-4 weeks.

But I would have thought there would be at least 30 weeks at *full* production -- e.g., 7000 Model 3s per week -- to catch up on the backlog. I know a day 1 reservation holder who will receive his base Model 3 in another 2-3 weeks.

I get it that Tesla may no longer feel like it has to honor reservations in order. But these are reservations that were accompanied by $1K deposits. And even if you don't fulfill them in order, you can't get around having way more orders than you have capacity to fulfill within a few weeks. Unless you don't really have many reservations remaining.

We also know that Tesla hasn't delivered anywhere near 400K Model 3s.

Did 200K reservations simply vanish?

Thanks,
Alan

 

[Pinewold]

There are reservations from all over the world. So you are just starting to see these fulfilled. For example, Model 3 to Europe and China are shipping this quarter. Mexico has just been added. Tesla has shipped zero cars to the UK, Ireland, Austrialia or any other left hand drive countries. Even folks from countries that Tesla has not shipped to at all decided they want to reserve a Model 3 to show Tesla there was demand in their country. (e.g. Israel).

 

[commasign]

Some reservation holders have leases or other financial situations that prevent them from getting the $35k Tesla right now even though they plan to get one eventually.

 

[jvmoore1]

Some reservation holders have leases or other financial situations that prevent them from getting the $35k Tesla right now even though they plan to get one eventually.

this is my situation

 

[Mike75d]

I ordered on 30th March 2016 believe it or not (Australia is a day before USA). We are still waiting as no right hand drive model 3s have been built yet. Luckily I also own a model s.
I will be expecting free unlimited super charging on my Performance 3 as the website stated that all model 3 performance ordered before a certain date will receive

 

[Dana1]

I ordered on 30th March 2016 believe it or not (Australia is a day before USA). We are still waiting as no right hand drive model 3s have been built yet. Luckily I also own a model s.
I will be expecting free unlimited super charging on my Performance 3 as the website stated that all model 3 performance ordered before a certain date will receive

That hasn’t been the case in the U.S. Folks got 6 months.

 

[Pollux]

OK, so some factors with reservations are: worldwide, right-hand drive, countries Tesla doesn't even yet have a presence in, finances don't yet permit purchase. All seem reasonable to me.

But shouldn't there still be a significant backlog of US base Model 3 reservations? Out of 380K-400K initial reservations couldn't we guess that there might be... 20K US base model 3 waiters? 50K? 100K? Months of production, even at a full 7K Model 3s per week, which Tesla doesn't seem to have achieved with the base model 3 yet?

I accept the factors that people have mentioned. But still find it difficult to believe that something funny isn't going on with the reservation list.

Thank you for your thoughts.

Alan

 

[Dana1]

OK, so some factors with reservations are: worldwide, right-hand drive, countries Tesla doesn't even yet have a presence in, finances don't yet permit purchase. All seem reasonable to me.

But shouldn't there still be a significant backlog of US base Model 3 reservations? Out of 380K-400K initial reservations couldn't we guess that there might be... 20K US base model 3 waiters? 50K? 100K? Months of production, even at a full 7K Model 3s per week, which Tesla doesn't seem to have achieved with the base model 3 yet?

I accept the factors that people have mentioned. But still find it difficult to believe that something funny isn't going on with the reservation list.

Thank you for your thoughts.

Alan

The balance sheet shows $792,601,000 in customer deposits, down from $853,919,000. That’s on a consolidated basis and $58M is for the vehicle maintenance plans. I’d think most of it is cars rather than solar but I didn’t see a breakdown. In 2016 the cash flow statement has appx $388M in for deposits, in 2017 $170M, and in 2018 an outflow of $97M (which makes sense with deliveries outpacing reservations). So, if we use cash flow statements as a measure, and if we think 75% were 3s that’s about 418K cars, minus $97M, leaving roughly 321K to go? Hmmm, that intuitively feels high. It’d be nice to see a segment breakdown.

 

[mos6507]

Did 200K reservations simply vanish?

 

[DavidP]

Me too, I was expecting a huge flow of new orders once the SR is available. Where is the "masses" ordering their 35k Tesla?

 

[Uncle Paul]

People with reservations still need to configure their cars to get a delivery date.

Base Model 3 was just announced a few days ago, it it may take some time for those on the list, that still want a car, to place their firm order.

Until then, Tesla will just give delivery dates dependent on the number of firm orders they receive.

 

[reddy]

I had 2 reservations. Ordered a LR AWD when that was available with the first, but the reservation didn't help ANY.

Held the second reservation for a 35k model. When I ordered the day of the price drop, the web site kept going down and resetting. When I ordered the 'Standard Plus' it didn't use my reservation at all !

So I cancelled my "reservation" and had Tesla do an ACH deposit for a refund, which I received 2 days later.

My car is supposed to be here on 3/18.

So not much backlog, and reservation wasn't helpful at all.

 

[OCR1]

I wonder how many people placed a reservation and deposit in 2016 and forgot they did so.

 

[NickFie]

Two families, two reservations, one 3 and done for a while.

Our daughter and her husband had an early Model 3 reservation.

I bought Model S for my wife late 2017. She loved it, except for size and lack of interior amenities.

Daughter was invited to order mid-2018, but they couldn’t afford LR Premium. Postponed until SR was available, but their SAAB was disintegrating.

Early 2018 I reserved a 3, figuring owner status would help. Didn’t plan to order one until AWD was available. Even considered waiting for air suspension.

Took my wife to test drive a 3 when our local SC got a demo model in August. She loved it - right size, better amenities and handled like her first car, a Fiat 124 Sport Coupe. Tesla had better acceleration and reliability.

We ordered LR AWD P-, received in late September. Now my wife is very happy with her daily driver.

We share our S or Hyundai Sonata with our daughter’s family. I frequently telecommute, don’t need a car every day. They canceled their reservation and disposed of the SAAB.

 

[Need]

I wonder how many people placed a reservation and deposit in 2016 and forgot they did so.

There will be quite a few who passed away and their next of kins did not know that they had placed a reservation!

 

[Pollux]

The balance sheet shows $792,601,000 in customer deposits, down from $853,919,000. That’s on a consolidated basis and $58M is for the vehicle maintenance plans. I’d think most of it is cars rather than solar but I didn’t see a breakdown. In 2016 the cash flow statement has appx $388M in for deposits, in 2017 $170M, and in 2018 an outflow of $97M (which makes sense with deliveries outpacing reservations). So, if we use cash flow statements as a measure, and if we think 75% were 3s that’s about 418K cars, minus $97M, leaving roughly 321K to go? Hmmm, that intuitively feels high. It’d be nice to see a segment breakdown.

Love this analysis. Don't forget Semi and Roadster reservations. Those consume a lot more dollars per vehicle, probably driving us below 321K and into the 200s. It doesn't feel unreasonable to me to think that at this point Tesla might have chewed through 40-50% of its Model 3 reservation list through a combination of upsells to Model S/X, upsells to the initial expensive Model 3 configs, and outright cancellations.

Which makes it puzzling as to what is happening with the remainder of the list given that new orders are being handled so swiftly.

Thanks,
Alan

 

[Dana1]

Love this analysis. Don't forget Semi and Roadster reservations. Those consume a lot more dollars per vehicle, probably driving us below 321K and into the 200s. It doesn't feel unreasonable to me to think that at this point Tesla might have chewed through 40-50% of its Model 3 reservation list through a combination of upsells to Model S/X, upsells to the initial expensive Model 3 configs, and outright cancellations.

Which makes it puzzling as to what is happening with the remainder of the list given that new orders are being handled so swiftly.

Thanks,
Alan

That also includes solar. A segment breakdown would be nice. I agree that intuitively it seems like there’d be around 200K of 3s. S and X are delivered quickly so those would be a wash.

 

[adaptabl]

The reservations were for a product promised but never delivered. At the time the promise was a 35K car before incentives. Those incentives were $7,500 to $10,000+. The idea of getting a new to the market 25K 200 mile range EV was very exciting to many hence the large number of reservations. Now that there is a 35K model incentives are falling, the car is not so new to the market, gas prices are falling. I was surprised how fast Tesla went thru the reservation list at launch, even for the expensive models. It wasn't long before they had to open the orders to anyone. It seems the uptake on the 35K version is not that great. It will soon be clear if there is a market for the 500,000 units a year Tesla was predicting. It will be tough.

 

[Pollux]

@adaptabl, while I can't speak for all the other incentives at the state level that may have come and gone, there's still half the federal tax credit available for the first half of the year. $3750 rather than $7500. So while I agree with you that some people have been on the razor's edge of affording a base Model 3 and had built in the full $7500 federal tax credit, it is difficult for me to believe that that calculation swayed the thinking of (presumably, just guessing here) 200K remaining reservation holders.

Waving my hands wildly and offering no justification whatsoever, I posit 10-15% of the reservation holders being in that boat, where the missing $3750 piece sinks the deal for them. OK, now we're down to 180K missing reservation holders.

Thanks,
Alan

 

[Waiting43]

But I would have thought there would be at least 30 weeks at *full* production -- e.g., 7000 Model 3s per week -- to catch up on the backlog. I know a day 1 reservation holder who will receive his base Model 3 in another 2-3 weeks.

They're not producing 7K cars a week now, for the US market. At all. There's 3 or 4 ships leaving SF every week for either China or Europe, with, say, 1,500-1,800 cars per ship. And Bloomberg is projecting they've been producing about 5,800 cars a week this quarter. So that leaves maybe 1,000? or 2,000? available for the US market since early January. Maybe not even that...