PureAmps
Model S P85 (#2817)
Awww shucksso no tesla at $80?
Oh no, TSLA will eventually be at $80. Just not do to a short squeeze.
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Oh no, TSLA will eventually be at $80. Just not do to a short squeeze.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Benz
Active Member
smorgasbord
Active Member
Well, it looks like the short squeeze is happening. That said, with Tesla touching $80 today, there are probably new shorts entering at these prices, so it's doubtful that the short interest will appear to have dropped. Which means that we need to use price and volume to try to catch the peak. Any ideas? Volume was pretty darn high today.
This is a squeeze? I guess I was expecting something more dramatic and exponential in it's rise.
Well, the opening the day after the earnings was dramatic, but it's basically only moved about 10% since Thursday's opening price. Don't get me wrong, that 10% is great, it just seems sort of mild for a squeeze.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
My newbie guess is because of the new shorters. I've heard TSLA is a great short at $75, a lot better than it was at $55 or $35.
smorgasbord
Active Member
Here's the 1 month chart for Tesla:
Note the dramatic volume increases for yesterday and today (the vertical blue lines).
May 10 - 29 million
May 09 - 29 million
May 08 - 07 million
May 07 - 10 million (The Tuesday activity discussed in another thread)
May 06 - 04 million
May 03 - 03 million
So, we're selling 3X to 10X normal volume while the price is spiking. That looks like a squeeze to me. Not a blow-out squeeze like VW, but still a squeeze. Remember the mother of all squeezes has VW rising 5X in price. Tesla is already 2X and it's doubtful it'll reach that 5X level. So, set your squeeze peaking expectations accordingly.
Note the dramatic volume increases for yesterday and today (the vertical blue lines).
May 10 - 29 million
May 09 - 29 million
May 08 - 07 million
May 07 - 10 million (The Tuesday activity discussed in another thread)
May 06 - 04 million
May 03 - 03 million
So, we're selling 3X to 10X normal volume while the price is spiking. That looks like a squeeze to me. Not a blow-out squeeze like VW, but still a squeeze. Remember the mother of all squeezes has VW rising 5X in price. Tesla is already 2X and it's doubtful it'll reach that 5X level. So, set your squeeze peaking expectations accordingly.
Attachments
I think we're seeing something unprecedented, both in the company and the stock appreciation. TM is fundamentally unlike Google, Apple, Microsoft, or other great companies because they all had competition in their respective markets.
TM is producing an outstanding, desirable product that everyone will want but almost no one needs. It's product and strategy are defining a new automotive industry business model. It currently has no serious competion, and won't for at least a year or more. It's partnering with much larger and more powerful players while managing to hold all the leverage, supply, patent, and pricing cards. Good grief, Elon!
I've only invested money I can easily afford to lose. I think it's a smart bet. But unlike every other investment in my portfolio, I have no idea where this will go. However, I think it will be to extremes: boom or bust.
TM is producing an outstanding, desirable product that everyone will want but almost no one needs. It's product and strategy are defining a new automotive industry business model. It currently has no serious competion, and won't for at least a year or more. It's partnering with much larger and more powerful players while managing to hold all the leverage, supply, patent, and pricing cards. Good grief, Elon!
I've only invested money I can easily afford to lose. I think it's a smart bet. But unlike every other investment in my portfolio, I have no idea where this will go. However, I think it will be to extremes: boom or bust.
Remember the ownership specifics regarding the 2008 VW squeeze: Porsche had captured enough of the voting shares that there remained only about five percent of shares even potentially floating; these were being chased by shorts equivalent to something like 13 percent. I don't recall any of the details of how that five percent was divvied up, but given the capital structure of German companies, it isn't unlikely that the true float was much smaller even than that amount.
So - while Tesla's squeeze may have juice left, I'm thinking it's unlikely to spiral to the heights achieved by VW. What I hope is that the fall-off on the other side also isn't so precipitous as what happened in '08.
So - while Tesla's squeeze may have juice left, I'm thinking it's unlikely to spiral to the heights achieved by VW. What I hope is that the fall-off on the other side also isn't so precipitous as what happened in '08.
Also remember another aspect of the share price development: It was clearly undervalued before the surge started (at least in my point of view). If the company keeps up the stellar execution and no serious mishaps occur (big ifs, but still), the price may never come down after the "squeeze". So I see this as a squeeze combined with a "justified appreciation".
Now, the big question in the short term is what the "natural" trading range would be given information available today, without a squeeze effect. Is it $50? $60? $80? $100? Who knows?
I would certainly start selling my long term (bought-to-hold) shares if the stock price started hitting $120 and up, with a strong conviction of being able to get back in at a lower valuation. However, at $80 I don't know. The threads in this forum are littered with people who regret "taking profit" at $40, $50, $60 and $70. Do I want to be "the $80 moaner"? My decision is to stick to my position until it is crystal clear that the squeeze has taken the value above sustainable levels.
Now, the big question in the short term is what the "natural" trading range would be given information available today, without a squeeze effect. Is it $50? $60? $80? $100? Who knows?
I would certainly start selling my long term (bought-to-hold) shares if the stock price started hitting $120 and up, with a strong conviction of being able to get back in at a lower valuation. However, at $80 I don't know. The threads in this forum are littered with people who regret "taking profit" at $40, $50, $60 and $70. Do I want to be "the $80 moaner"? My decision is to stick to my position until it is crystal clear that the squeeze has taken the value above sustainable levels.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
And those levels are exactly what? :wink: I guees that is the impossible question, but Tesla is not a pure tech growth company - they are also in the manufacturing buiseness, and even for a pure tech based company with a potentially formidable future a P/E of >1000 is pretty high...
In my post I put out the number $120. I think if it went to that next week, I would be convinced (but without firm evidence) that this was due to a short squeeze and would correct. At $100 I would be very unsure of what to do. At $80 I have no clue of whether it will go significantly down later or not, but I will stick to the long term position because I think eventually Tesla may be going to $200-1000 and I don't want to be left outside. All this is gut-feeling based, because putting a valuation in Tesla is completely subjective and depends on how you envisage the EV market and Tesla specifically in 5-10 years. Anyone who does valuations of Tesla with a spreadsheet at this point is merely being a clown (I know this, because doing valuations with a spreadsheet is something I know a thing or two about).
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
I know people who are looking to get in wondering when a good time to get in is. I, as an investing newbie who "just got lucky" (as a coworker told me), have been telling people to dollar cost average. Buy some shares now, buy some next week, buy some the week after that..As long as they hold their shares long term it is my belief that they won't be disappointed.
P.S. I do count myself lucky, but I credit most of my success to the many many hours I have spent on these forums reading the posts of the many smart, dedicated people who are gracious enough to share their thoughts with the rest of us.
Take this for what it's worth,but when it's "crystal clear" that something has happened, it's too late. If the price falls to 60 next week and stays there all week, you will know the buyers have been exhausted, but your opportunity to sell at 75 or 80 will have been lost when the stock price was "above sustainable levels". Imo, you cannot beat dollar cost averaging. This includes selling into strength.
The last couple pages have me thinking the squeeze either already happened or won't. 7-8x normal volume the last 2 days and it's only budged 10% since Thursday's opening. There was talk of a big push leading into the weekend as shorts tried to avoid paying weekend interest and nothing happened, so maybe there just aren't that many shorts really left to squeeze. Maybe new shorts have filled their place, but unless the stock goes up dramatically again they won't be squeezed.
It's over 2 days. The stock has moved 10% since the open on Thursday. And TSLA has moved +/- 10% multiple times in the last couple years without any squeeze.
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