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What to do with Sudden Influx of Cash?

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Hello,
First off, thanks to all the old timers on this form. Been in $TSLA since $37, and I've loved every minute of it.

That being said, I now find myself sitting on a huge pile of cash with the market at ATH and struggling to find a good investment oppertunity for the long term. Something for the next 5-10 years.
Every single company (big or small), seems to be priced for perfection.
While my $TSLA investment has grown in the past 5 years, it still is a fraction of my net worth because in 2013 I was a young college student with no $ to my name, and now I've happened to get a giant inflow of new capital thanks to equity vesting and an $UBER IPO.
So with that said, how would you allocate new capital in today's markets? Would you just wait for rational prices to present themselves? If so, what are you eyeing, and why? I have $SQ as my second largest position, and continue to accumulate on dips, but I am not nearly as convinced of that as I was of $TSLA in 2013/2014, and so I feel it would be financially irresponsible to simply go 100% $SQ.

I have been parking my money as follows: 50% split across $GLD, $BRK/B, $ARKK and then day-trading with the other 50%. But that is a stressful endevor, and statistically a losing proposition.

Any thoughts/suggestions are welcome.
 
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ARKK is an ETF that has similar values to most Tesla investors. You should look into them, great research reports and presentations on Youtube.

It's good to diversify 5-10% into crypto, which has the most asymmetric upside/risk profile of any asset (including Tesla).

If you have enough to be accredited there's some great private deals out there. Depends how active you want to be, your time horizon, etc. Anything from real estate/franchise opportunities to SpaceX (which I invested into).

I'm also huge into Square and would love to chat with that offline just PM me. There's a growing Square investor community.

And of course, Tesla is the "safe" allocation in my portfolio because I'm so 100% certain of its 2030 outlook.
 
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ARKK is an ETF that has similar values to most Tesla investors. You should look into them, great research reports and presentations on Youtube.

It's good to diversify 5-10% into crypto, which has the most asymmetric upside/risk profile of any asset (including Tesla).

If you have enough to be accredited there's some great private deals out there. Depends how active you want to be, your time horizon, etc. Anything from real estate/franchise opportunities to SpaceX (which I invested into).

I'm also huge into Square and would love to chat with that offline just PM me. There's a growing Square investor community.

And of course, Tesla is the "safe" allocation in my portfolio because I'm so 100% certain of its 2030 outlook.
Out of curiosity, what's your 2030 $TSLA outlook?

I feel like everyone has a higher and higher projection than I do haha.
 
Hello,
First off, thanks to all the old timers on this form. Been in $TSLA since $37, and I've loved every minute of it.

That being said, I now find myself sitting on a huge pile of cash with the market at ATH and struggling to find a good investment oppertunity for the long term. Something for the next 5-10 years.
Every single company (big or small), seems to be priced for perfection.
While my $TSLA investment has grown in the past 5 years, it still is a fraction of my net worth because in 2013 I was a young college student with no $ to my name, and now I've happened to get a giant inflow of new capital thanks to equity vesting and an $UBER IPO.
So with that said, how would you allocate new capital in today's markets? Would you just wait for rational prices to present themselves? If so, what are you eyeing, and why? I have $SQ as my second largest position, and continue to accumulate on dips, but I am not nearly as convinced of that as I was of $TSLA in 2013/2014, and so I feel it would be financially irresponsible to simply go 100% $SQ.

I have been parking my money as follows: 50% split across $GLD, $BRK/B, $ARKK and then day-trading with the other 50%. But that is a stressful endevor, and statistically a losing proposition.

Any thoughts/suggestions are welcome.

Some comments: (1) agreed on SQ and crypto* .. (2) disagree on GLD - this is paper gold, poster child to manipulation (the futures market defines its spot price, can you believe, and there hasn't been any audit of actual gold reserves since the 60's of any of the main players, including Fort Knox) - as a small fish in a shark tank you're 98% guaranteed to lose your shirt - if you want Gold exposure better go with miners such as NG etc. - seems like Nickel is a better choice actually (check out the Canadian company Tesla is making a big contract with, but maybe too late).

(*) Actually if you are technically adept, a real BTC wallet is ideal since you don't have liquidity issues
 
Out of curiosity, what's your 2030 $TSLA outlook?

I feel like everyone has a higher and higher projection than I do haha.

My motto has always been the Tesla is $4000 by 2030 and Bitcoin is $400,000 by 2030 hahaha. Looks like Tesla is going to hit there much faster than that though LOL. So at this point who knows, price could honestly crater 50% and I wouldn't break a sweat as long as nothing in the investment thesis fundamentally changes. Long-term, I see Tesla in the same tier as Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft. So it still has room to run.

My thing with Tesla is...there is a lack of imagination when it comes to this company. A world with autonomy fundamentally changes our lives. A world with self-sustainable homes 80% of the time fundamentally changes many peoples' lives. Apple is becoming a healthcare company. That's an uncomfortable statement for those not intimately familiar with them, but it's happening. Tesla has many uncomfortable statements like that, and it only takes one to be realized for this company to be relatively justified in its valuation (in this crazy world of free money).

I do think the unforseen consequences of what's happening in monetary policy and an extreme central bank driven economy will be reflected in crypto sometime in the next 10 years.
 
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Hello,
First off, thanks to all the old timers on this form. Been in $TSLA since $37, and I've loved every minute of it.

That being said, I now find myself sitting on a huge pile of cash with the market at ATH and struggling to find a good investment oppertunity for the long term. Something for the next 5-10 years.
Every single company (big or small), seems to be priced for perfection.
While my $TSLA investment has grown in the past 5 years, it still is a fraction of my net worth because in 2013 I was a young college student with no $ to my name, and now I've happened to get a giant inflow of new capital thanks to equity vesting and an $UBER IPO.
So with that said, how would you allocate new capital in today's markets? Would you just wait for rational prices to present themselves? If so, what are you eyeing, and why? I have $SQ as my second largest position, and continue to accumulate on dips, but I am not nearly as convinced of that as I was of $TSLA in 2013/2014, and so I feel it would be financially irresponsible to simply go 100% $SQ.

I have been parking my money as follows: 50% split across $GLD, $BRK/B, $ARKK and then day-trading with the other 50%. But that is a stressful endevor, and statistically a losing proposition.

Any thoughts/suggestions are welcome.

In may personal view of the world, the only public company I see worth owning is Tesla. I freely admit there are surely others with a similarly high quality business and that I haven't (and won't) invest the energy into finding them. I do come from the school of thought that diversification is another word for diworsification.

So my public company holdings are TSLA and nothing else. (Not advice)

If I were going to diversify my public company holdings, I would swallow, hold my nose over the expense / management fee associated with the ARK ETFs and invest in 1 or more of those (I don't like paying 1% and higher management fees - I think ARK is 1%). I would be looking at ones focused on other fields than the one where Tesla is in (after all - I'm looking for investments in innovation and trying to diversify away from Tesla). I am particularly a fan of the larger premise at ARK - innovation is most always undervalued, and it is undervalued right now.

I think I personally would be most interested in something oriented to biotech, as I know there is amazing stuff going on there, but I won't be putting in the energy to identify the company(s) worth investing in.


I've also got a small bit - about 10% that I would like to be 20-25% - in real estate by way of REIT or similar holdings. I have no interesting in directly being a landlord, but I do like having some dividend type annual income coming from a real estate source as I think that provides some diversification.


So I guess my own direct answer to your question:
1) more TSLA (and moar, and moar, ..)
2) ARK funds
3) real estate (direct buildings / landlord, or fund). I personally use the dividend oriented fund at How it Works. (Not advice - you get to experience your own consequences for your own decisions :p). I think that about a year in, I've been seeing roughly on target returns of about 8-10% dividends per year, and little or no capital gain or loss; just about exactly what I was looking for.


I'm skeptical of cryptocurrency for investment or diversification. I don't want to turn this thread into a cryptocurrency argument - I'm far from an expert, but I have studied it a little bit. The big problem is that I don't see, today, a path to widespread / ubiquitous usage, and it looks to me like this is a necessity for it to be a big thing and turn into an investment (in which case, now you're investing in the currency market -- for sure not my thing). And until that time, cryptocurrency looks to me like a modern version of the dutch tulip craze (which I fully realize doesn't make me right - just what I think).
 
My thing with Tesla is...there is a lack of imagination when it comes to this company. A world with autonomy fundamentally changes our lives. A world with self-sustainable homes 80% of the time fundamentally changes many peoples' lives. Apple is becoming a healthcare company. That's an uncomfortable statement for those not intimately familiar with them, but it's happening. Tesla has many uncomfortable statements like that, and it only takes one to be realized for this company to be relatively justified in its valuation (in this crazy world of free money).

A good thing to think about, specifically related to TSLA, but applicable to any investment - what is your investment thesis. Why are you buying that?

For me, Tesla is a long term investment. I first bought in 2012 with a 10+ year investment horizon. That was largely driven by having a Tesla moment when I test drove Model S - it changed my world. The significant for that original investment was the product mattered, and that was a world changing, or at least going to be a market dominant, product.

8 years later, my investment horizon has been updated to 10+ years. Actually, I have a reasonable path to owning the company until I die, and I've got reasonable odds on that being 3+ decades.


So my thesis today is that the product still matters, and in the automotive world - there is no serious competition. Serious competition might arise over the next 5 years, but I was reading that claim back in 2015, 2017, 2019, ... It's the same thing press release after press release with (sometimes) the company changing that issues the press release. What we have so far are stuff that doesn't come to market, or does but with an annual cap on production of 20-50k units (i.e. compliance cars).

Even the stuff that might actually be serious competition is still at least 5 and more like 10 years away from being serious competition, if only because the actual competition today is the entire ICE car industry. Until EVs are more like 30-50% of the market, they don't compete with each other - they take sales from the ICE industry.

There's a lot more that I could say about the details of why I have such high expectations for Tesla over the next 10+ years, but that's me. What is your investment thesis (rhetorical question)? If your TSLA investment is sort of 6 of one, half a dozen of the other (seems like a good idea, amongst a sea of good ideas - doesn't particularly stand out) - is there something else you think more highly of? Maybe that's an indicator you should be more focused there.

Note that I have a pretty strong bias towards a small number of eggs in my basket that I watch like a hawk, over a huge basket of eggs where I can't really watch anything. I also fully recognize that this personal position isn't a good one for most people - most people should do their retirement investing into "the market", and focus their energy in investing in their own career; that'll be the serious "investment" with the best return for most all of their life.
 
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I agree with you guys, and I would (at most) diversify to 5 holdings (at most). Up until this year, I was primarily 90%+ $TSLA. And then I felt we ran up wayy too fast and sold (I know, huge mistake!) in the $500-$750 range.
Of course, we know how that ended... Now even if I want to build my position back up to what it was originally, I'd have to hope for a crash like March.

That, combined with the fact that I nearly 4x'd my liquid net worth thanks to $UBER's IPO (I don't believe in the company long term, and so sold at $32 after the bounce from $17 at the bottom of the crash) means that my holdings in $TSLA have gone down dramatically.

That being said, I find it hard to force myself to add MORE money into $TSLA when it's trading at this valuation. I'd probably have to put the entirety of my portfolio back into $TSLA just to get back the delta-exposure I had in Dec./Jan. My bullish target on $TSLA in 2030 is ~$3T, and a realistic target of ~$1.5T (I'm definitely more conservative in my estimates then most here and have been since 2013).
With a market cap of 400B, that's a 4x-8x in a decade which comes out to 15%-22% anualized returns. I feel like I can do better than this just day-trading the volatility around $TSLA (heck we had 20% drop in a day with the S&P inclusion). Even $ARKK has returned 25%+ YoY, and I see it having a better chance of doing so going forward.

$SQ would probably my second highest conviction investment, with a bull case of $150B in 2025, however even that is only a 18% annualized return over 5 years.

I may be too spoiled by 50% YoY growth with $TSLA, but anything under 25-30% YoY no longer excites me, and so I find it impossible to put money anywhere. The argument of "where else will you put your money" seems to ring hollow. I get that is pretty much what's driven the $FAANG rally (especially $AAPL) for the last 2000 basis points but doesn't mean it's a sound investment thesis.
 
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Probably not a right tread, but seems in TSLA circles SQ is a popular investment. I see topic starter has a high conviction for SQ as well. I understand that it probably comes from ARK's Cathy Woods. I listened to her and to @DaveT videos about SQ, but couldn't overcome my personal experience with them for 5+ years in several small businessess. In my view SQ couldn't get a good share of the market they were aiming at initially (and as a user I understand why), but now are chasing another markets. Would be happy to hear your view (maybe in a separate thread?).
 
I agree with you guys, and I would (at most) diversify to 5 holdings (at most). Up until this year, I was primarily 90%+ $TSLA. And then I felt we ran up wayy too fast and sold (I know, huge mistake!) in the $500-$750 range.
Of course, we know how that ended... Now even if I want to build my position back up to what it was originally, I'd have to hope for a crash like March.

That, combined with the fact that I nearly 4x'd my liquid net worth thanks to $UBER's IPO (I don't believe in the company long term, and so sold at $32 after the bounce from $17 at the bottom of the crash) means that my holdings in $TSLA have gone down dramatically.

That being said, I find it hard to force myself to add MORE money into $TSLA when it's trading at this valuation. I'd probably have to put the entirety of my portfolio back into $TSLA just to get back the delta-exposure I had in Dec./Jan. My bullish target on $TSLA in 2030 is ~$3T, and a realistic target of ~$1.5T (I'm definitely more conservative in my estimates then most here and have been since 2013).
With a market cap of 400B, that's a 4x-8x in a decade which comes out to 15%-22% anualized returns. I feel like I can do better than this just day-trading the volatility around $TSLA (heck we had 20% drop in a day with the S&P inclusion). Even $ARKK has returned 25%+ YoY, and I see it having a better chance of doing so going forward.

$SQ would probably my second highest conviction investment, with a bull case of $150B in 2025, however even that is only a 18% annualized return over 5 years.

I may be too spoiled by 50% YoY growth with $TSLA, but anything under 25-30% YoY no longer excites me, and so I find it impossible to put money anywhere. The argument of "where else will you put your money" seems to ring hollow. I get that is pretty much what's driven the $FAANG rally (especially $AAPL) for the last 2000 basis points but doesn't mean it's a sound investment thesis.

Getting even 25% YoY over a 10 year time horizon is very aggressive, and could easily put you in a position where you're underwater for a decade. That's the type of behavior that got people to use extreme leverage in the housing market in 07. Even Tesla could experience a reckoning if central banks decide to ease just a little bit or if/when some unforseen consequence of global monetary policy leads to a black swan event.

And at that point you're going to wish your investments were in more certain areas. IMO, Tesla is one of the best upside opportunities with clear 10 year horizon certainty given its engineering/manufacturing advantages that Wall Street clearly does not understand.

Just be careful about timing. That's what burned you when originally selling your Tesla shares. Time in the market beats timing the market. I don't know when the next big crash is, or what Tesla's stock price will be in 5 years, but I do have strong confidence about the long-term future Tesla is building. And I know that this near-certain future, when it happens, will result in Tesla having a meaningfully higher share price than today. Now whether that represents 15% CAGR or 35% CAGR who knows. But that certainty is what enables me to not care about the SP post-battery day.

With that said, a group of Tesla investors recently clued me in on a 100x potential investment in the battery recycling industry. Check your PM.
 
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Anyone has an opinion about Chamath's new SPACs - IPOD 350M IPOE 650M IPOF 1B ?
https://twitter.com/IPO201/status/1307072282515439622
I'm new at this so:
- Do you just ask your broker to buy in these pre IPO @ $10 a share (Etrade/ Schwab/ IBKR .. )
- buying into these pre-IPO tantamount to writing a blank check to Chamath, trusting he'll find a suitable company to do a reverse IPO
What do you think ?
 
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Getting even 25% YoY over a 10 year time horizon is very aggressive, and could easily put you in a position where you're underwater for a decade. That's the type of behavior that got people to use extreme leverage in the housing market in 07. Even Tesla could experience a reckoning if central banks decide to ease just a little bit or if/when some unforseen consequence of global monetary policy leads to a black swan event.

And at that point you're going to wish your investments were in more certain areas. IMO, Tesla is one of the best upside opportunities with clear 10 year horizon certainty given its engineering/manufacturing advantages that Wall Street clearly does not understand.

Just be careful about timing. That's what burned you when originally selling your Tesla shares. Time in the market beats timing the market. I don't know when the next big crash is, or what Tesla's stock price will be in 5 years, but I do have strong confidence about the long-term future Tesla is building. And I know that this near-certain future, when it happens, will result in Tesla having a meaningfully higher share price than today. Now whether that represents 15% CAGR or 35% CAGR who knows. But that certainty is what enables me to not care about the SP post-battery day.

With that said, a group of Tesla investors recently clued me in on a 100x potential investment in the battery recycling industry. Check your PM.
Can you PM me the details as well?
 
Well, not to sound coarse, but you sold off the best stock that you had. The best time to buy back in, is on the dips. I was never lucky or quick enough to buy Tesla at it's lowest points (timing the market).

When I first saw Tesla I was excited about the company but my money was tied up into building homes. I toyed with throwing Tesla a bone but was nervous it might go the route of DeLorean, so I held off. In the meantime, I had dumped almost a lifetime of money into a retirement account with a financial services company that went bankrupt the day the Madoff scandal hit losing my 3 million retirement monies. I won't see a dime of that money.

About 2.5 years ago, I felt that I should have invested in Tesla prior, but had not opened a trading account and taken the time to do so. It was weighing heavy on me. So finally, at that time, I opened a trading account and threw some money at some stocks with Tesla being the primary.

I had bought Tesla at around the $345 level throwing what I could afford into it. Not long after, it dropped into the $180's but I had no more dry powder to buy in at that level but did get a few shares in the $250's. It sat hard red for what seemed like a long time but I had faith and just had to ignore it and have the conviction to wait it out. We all know where it is today! My point is that when I could scrape some money up, get it into the trading account, try to guess the low and the high, I could never time it to hit the lowest price point.

There was a time when I was determined to get the timing right, when not long ago, it had dropped way down into the high $300's leading me to hold out for low 300's and it NEVER dropped to that. I eventually used that money to buy in in the high 700's and kicking myself for waiting. We would all love to buy at those levels now before the split. Let's dream about buying in the $30's just for a moment...

As time went on I bought when I could. The bottom line is that it has made me a ton of value in 2.5 years and in my belief it is the rocket for my financial future.

The main takeaway from this is to get your money in the game as you can. Sitting on the sidelines will not grow your wealth. You cannot have total certainty but you can do your homework to be as prepared as possible.

Think of it a beautiful trail/path that you decide to take because you have heard that it is spectacular. A smart hiker knows that things could go wrong and tries to prepare for those possibilities. You just hope that you can get your bear spray out in time... so you can live to enjoy another day.
 
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Getting even 25% YoY over a 10 year time horizon is very aggressive, and could easily put you in a position where you're underwater for a decade. That's the type of behavior that got people to use extreme leverage in the housing market in 07. Even Tesla could experience a reckoning if central banks decide to ease just a little bit or if/when some unforseen consequence of global monetary policy leads to a black swan event.

And at that point you're going to wish your investments were in more certain areas. IMO, Tesla is one of the best upside opportunities with clear 10 year horizon certainty given its engineering/manufacturing advantages that Wall Street clearly does not understand.

Just be careful about timing. That's what burned you when originally selling your Tesla shares. Time in the market beats timing the market. I don't know when the next big crash is, or what Tesla's stock price will be in 5 years, but I do have strong confidence about the long-term future Tesla is building. And I know that this near-certain future, when it happens, will result in Tesla having a meaningfully higher share price than today. Now whether that represents 15% CAGR or 35% CAGR who knows. But that certainty is what enables me to not care about the SP post-battery day.

With that said, a group of Tesla investors recently clued me in on a 100x potential investment in the battery recycling industry. Check your PM.
I would be curious about this as well if you could PM me, thanks
 
Getting even 25% YoY over a 10 year time horizon is very aggressive, and could easily put you in a position where you're underwater for a decade. That's the type of behavior that got people to use extreme leverage in the housing market in 07. Even Tesla could experience a reckoning if central banks decide to ease just a little bit or if/when some unforseen consequence of global monetary policy leads to a black swan event.

And at that point you're going to wish your investments were in more certain areas. IMO, Tesla is one of the best upside opportunities with clear 10 year horizon certainty given its engineering/manufacturing advantages that Wall Street clearly does not understand.

Just be careful about timing. That's what burned you when originally selling your Tesla shares. Time in the market beats timing the market. I don't know when the next big crash is, or what Tesla's stock price will be in 5 years, but I do have strong confidence about the long-term future Tesla is building. And I know that this near-certain future, when it happens, will result in Tesla having a meaningfully higher share price than today. Now whether that represents 15% CAGR or 35% CAGR who knows. But that certainty is what enables me to not care about the SP post-battery day.

With that said, a group of Tesla investors recently clued me in on a 100x potential investment in the battery recycling industry. Check your PM.

@Xepa777 I would be interested as well.