What wasn't said.

[Red Sage]

What makes you think that they will offer three battery sizes? (But at the end of your post you say they will only have two.) I think they learned on the Model S to not do that. Just like the Model X only has two choices. There will be a small, ~215 mile, battery and a large, ~300 mile?, battery. While it would be great if they could just give everyone the larger battery I don't think they can eat the ~$7,500 cost and keep the price at $35k.

I think your final guess is pretty close to what will happen, though the larger battery might be an 80 kWh instead of 90.

Possibly. Again, I tend to believe that Tesla Motors' primary intent is to have three main trim levels as:

• Base, Rear Wheel Drive
• Dual Motor, All Wheel Drive
• Performance, All Wheel Drive

I do not believe the Performance option will be available with anything other than the top-of-the-line battery pack. They could do these as three battery pack options, or two, but I honestly hope they just have one to start. Add a second later, at lower capacity. Add a third even later at higher capacity.

Remember that the Model S had a 60 kWh, 85 kWh, 90 kWh capacity before the Tesla Roadster got a 70 kWh capacity as an upgrade option. Until then, all Model S capacities other than 40 kWh were higher than anything ever seen in the Tesla Roadster. Some expect the highest capacity battery packs to always debut with Generation II vehicles, Model S and Model X, from now on. I submit that is not necessarily the strategy that Tesla Motors will employ.

So, in my personal fantasy realm... There would be:

• Model ☰ 70
• Model ☰ 70D
• Model ☰ 100D
• Model ☰ P135D

Obviously, I am not a member of the League of Lowered Expectations, who claim things like these will appear:

• Model ☰ 40
• Model ☰ 60
• Model ☰ 80D
• Model ☰ P80D

I'm just saying that my preferred debut would be something like:

• Model ☰ 100
• Model ☰ 100D
• Model ☰ P100D

With the 70 and 135 variants appearing some time later. I realize this is highly unlikely to take place.

 

[Ulmo]

Gee. Yet more people who don't use SCs trying so hard to find ways to charge people who do or might. Two years from now, no less. That would be hilarious if it wasn't so sad.

The poorer people who don't currently own a Tesla have a better view into the world of poorer people who will own Model 3's in the future, so are looking at this logically for the future. Simple planning ahead. Current richer folk owning Model S & X have a more secluded, lower density view of SuperChargers currently. I don't find it surprising that people who don't currently own Tesla's are leaning more toward the management of SuperCharger demand/cost/supply/availability issues than those who were earlier owners. This is all regardless of whatever actually happens in the future.

 

[Topher]

I would hope they learned from Model S that is a bad idea. Because though they expected the majority of their orders would be for the lowest capacity Model S 40... It turned out the opposite was true and the vast majority of buyers got the highest capacity Model S 85.

It depends on what lesson you take from that. If you assume that the largest battery version of a car will always sell best, perhaps. But if the lesson is that no one knows what will sell best, then they made the absolute right choice. Make as many options of battery size as possible, and see what sells. The secret master plan requires that there be a low priced option, and for that price continue to go down, but this is still a car that people with means want to buy, and they might as well get all the market will bear for it. This is also a car that could sell more in its first year than Model S and X combined, ever (if they can ramp up that quickly).

Thank you kindly.