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What we know thus far, when do you think Gen 3 will actually be delivered?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Gentilly7, Jun 29, 2014.

  1. Gentilly7

    Gentilly7 Member

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    Knowing what we know about Giga-factories, Model X delays, 3 year quoted timelines - When do you think the first Gen 3 deliveries will actually start? Seems that we have been talking 3 years timeline for over a year now and would I not be surprised if we will still be 3 years away by next year. Would like to hear everyones thoughts/predictions. Thanks in advance.
     
  2. green1

    green1 Active Member

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    Tesla Time... 3 years = 5.
     
  3. art

    art Member

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    I think if you buy a 2016 volt it will get you by until 2020 when the gen 111 comes out.
     
  4. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    I believe that Elon knows that the success of Tesla and of EVs in general rides on the Gen III model being a success and the sooner the better. My bet is on sometime in 2017 because the gigafactory being up and running is required for volume productin of the Gen III.
     
  5. dirkhh

    dirkhh Middle-aged Member

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    They are 100% focused on Model X. From start to delivery that took 5 years (assuming they deliver first half of next year which I am increasingly doubtful).
    So 2019 at the earliest for Gen 3
     
  6. CHGolferJim

    CHGolferJim Member

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    2017 seems optimistic unless the G3 development team has been making progress during the last phase of X developments......doesn't seem likely.
     
  7. Raffy.Roma

    Raffy.Roma Active Member

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    + 1
     
  8. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

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    Elon was recently quoted as saying Gen3 will debut in "about 2 1/2 years".

    Stuff meets Elon Musk | Stuff

    This confirms the late 2016-early 2017 timeframe he's been talking about since mid-last year.

    Production will probably start out small and ramp into volume production in 2018, IMO.
     
  9. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    If there are founders or sig cars, those will arrive in summer 2019. General production will sprinkle in "before 2020" (meaning between Christmas and New Year's).
     
  10. green1

    green1 Active Member

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    And you honestly think the gigafactory, with no site selected to date, will be up and running before 2017? That's HIGHLY unlikely.
     
  11. MartinAustin

    MartinAustin Active Member

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    Yeah that's a pretty significant change in the projections. It's the first time I've seen him quoted on anything sooner than 3 years. This must mean good things for 2015 reveal, gigafactory time lines and a whole bunch of other things. Good news!
     
  12. MarkR

    MarkR Member

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    I'm betting that we'll see a few Gen3's by the end of 2017 with deliveries in earnest in 2018. I'm ready to put down a deposit now.
     
  13. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    We can agree to disagree. As I said, Elon has stated many times that the reason for starting construction on the gigafactory this year is so that Gen III mass production can start in or around 2017. Obviously he believes that the gigafactory can be up and running in less than three years. I figure he knows a heck of a lot more about it than I do, so I'll go with his estimates.

    Panasonic has built battery factories before. They know how to do it. It's not rocket science.
     
  14. igotzzoom

    igotzzoom Member

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    I think a late-stage prototype or "concept" will be shown at the 2015 L.A. Show or the 2016 Detroit Show. Production model shown at 2017 Detroit Show, limited sales/deliveries starting in spring 2017, large-scale production rollout fall 2017, early calendar 2018. Fine by me. Will give me 4 years of payment-free car ownership until I take the plunge into the EV world.
     
  15. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    They've built lines for cell plants in 20 months.
     
  16. Zythryn

    Zythryn MS 70D, MX 90D

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    Late 2017 is my guess for the start of production.
    The Gigafactory is not needed to start production. However, it will be needed to ramp production up to speed.
     
  17. dirkhh

    dirkhh Middle-aged Member

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    " confirms "?
    Elon also " confirmed " firmware 6.0 for January 2014 and the CHAdeMO adapter for winter 2013.
    I'll be happy to bet that we will not see delivery if the Gen 3 in 2017.
    Anyone?
     
  18. dirkhh

    dirkhh Middle-aged Member

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    That's pretty much my guess as well.
     
  19. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    As for longshot bets...

    I would be interesting to see Elon take a risk with design resources by sharding off a small advance team to start speccing out Next-Gen Roadster with the intent of Signature Next-Gen Roadsters (<= 200) delivering in tandem with, say, 2000ish VIN Gen3.

    I don't think it will happen but boy would that be exciting. If it did happen though, I would expect the build quality and, um, "refinement level" to be similar to Model S founders vehicles (and first dozen or so Sigs).
     
  20. igotzzoom

    igotzzoom Member

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    The biggest factor with Gen-III will be ramp up to production of 100,000+ units. I think the learning curve with the Model S and Model X will shorten the gestation time for Gen-III. A lot of the learnings with those models will manifest themselves in fast-tracked development on the Gen-III. Still standing by my forecast of spring 2017 for the first unit sales.
     

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