It's not the crew its the quality. I have a new passenger seat, dashboard, steering wheel and rattles in the headliner in M3. MS has new half shafts, ball joints, etc. Total repairs on both cars about $15K. 5K /25K miles. I don't expect good reliability on the 3 outside of drivetrain/pack. In time there will be many rattles, panel and material issues. Early Y should be worse then better over time form 3 learnings.
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What will battery day do to our resale values?
- Thread starter insaneoctane
- Start date
It's not the crew its the quality. I have a new passenger seat, dashboard, steering wheel and rattles in the headliner in M3. MS has new half shafts, ball joints, etc. Total repairs on both cars about $15K. 5K /25K miles. I don't expect good reliability on the 3 outside of drivetrain/pack. In time there will be many rattles, panel and material issues. Early Y should be worse then better over time form 3 learnings.
Ry3n
Member
I don't know why anyone is concerned about "resale value". Isn't everyone guaranteed to "make $100,000 from full self driving/robo taxi"?
LBusDoor90
Member
Sorry to hear that. I have had the exact opposite experience at 30k miles. My under 20k VIN 3 is more solid than either of those 2 cars at the same point of ownership. Nothing at all beyond the need for new cabin air filters so far.
Agreed. Who cares about resell values?
Buy, drive and keep until it grows into the ground or becomes deprecated or dump it at any price at some future point in time (or like many, now, trade a 2017/18 in for a 20/21 or Y or Raven S or X as needed, for whatever reason).
I think we all know that these things, just like any ICE car, are not an investment, just a slower or faster depreciating 'asset/liability' (depending on who is looking and counting the beans). No point fretting about resale, accept that with continuous improvement early 1st gen Model 3 and Ys will be worth little above their aged raw materials in a few years... but still far far more than the dying ICEs.
I'd be happy with half that million longevity but double current range.
Anyway, holding onto my early M3 for several more years. Need a REALLY good reason to start considering replacing.
Anyway, holding onto my early M3 for several more years. Need a REALLY good reason to start considering replacing.
A lot depends on whether or not you plan on selling the car. If you are not selling the car, it really doesn't impact you at all. The cheapest way to own the car will be to keep it for 10+ years, not calculating what your "resale" value was during those years.
The battery is worth $10,000, so the most that you could loose in value is 50% of that. Tesla giving discounts on their new cars will probably have more of an effect. As the Model 3 has been around for a while and its no longer the latest and greatest, prices should to drop a few thousand.
On the other hand, if you were planning on buying a new Tesla, your cost will be lower. So I think it mostly evens out. Yes, you could sell your car now and drive a Honda for a few years and you'd make a more dollars than you'd normally make by doing that...
If concerned about dropping value of your car because of the newer tech, lease the car.
Lease contract will have a set residual value that doesn't change with the market after you sign the papers.
It would be an amazing feeling to return a car for $25000 when the same car in the used market sells for $15000.
Lease contract will have a set residual value that doesn't change with the market after you sign the papers.
It would be an amazing feeling to return a car for $25000 when the same car in the used market sells for $15000.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
In my view, the beginning of Tesla [what is the accepted plural of Tesla? Tesli? Teslae?] depreciation cruves trending toward the market average has arrived. Just a few months ago, a 2-3-year-old Model 3 would easily fetch 85+ percent of the new car list price. Right now, despite trade-in values falling *through the foundation, not just the floor, typical asking prices for a 2018/2019 Model S 100D or Model S P100D are 85-105 percent of the price of a comparably equipped, brand new 2020 Model S Long Range + or Model S Performance, respectively - while each of the latter offers significantly improved range. This should not be a news flash: in both cases, those pre-owned asking prices are delusional, not only in this market.
Most luxury cars will lose 20 percent of their value in the first year and 50 percent or greater in the first four-five years. Due to a confluence of factors, Tesla is not likely to perform significantly better than the average in this respect: (1) German automakers are entering the EV market in a big way in the near future - and those vehicles still eligible for a $7500 Federal Tax Credit. (2) I don't foresee a major decrease in the base price of anything in the Tesla lineup, but they *will* keep increasing the range and/or standard offerings (3) Tesla production numbers have increased dramatically since the introduction of the Model 3. Increased supply of pre-owned vehicles suggests prices will fall more sharply than in past years when the population of aspirational Tesla owners far exceeded the number of available pre-owned Tesla. (4) Battery technology is making major advances in both capacity and production cost. This suggests that legacy EV models with degraded and/or comparatively low capacity batteries could become much less desirable by comparison. (5) Despite what the "look at the stock market" narrative may tell you, a recession is coming. (5) If unemployment rates persist near all-time records, I question whether the approval of L5 autonomy [thus eliminating the need for hundreds of thousands of drivers and making your FSD vehicle an appreciating asset] is going to happen within the time horizon of your ownership of your current vehicle. There's a good counterargument to this point in the time of Covid-19, but I think jobs will be the narrative driving policy on this front.
Having said that, I believe there's little justification to predict that rational consumers [let's leave aside the behavioral economics question as to whether or not any consumer is in fact rational] will continue to prop up Tesla resale values better than other vehicles over the coming decade. But they'll still be fun to own and drive. I'm picking up mine on Monday.
Most luxury cars will lose 20 percent of their value in the first year and 50 percent or greater in the first four-five years. Due to a confluence of factors, Tesla is not likely to perform significantly better than the average in this respect: (1) German automakers are entering the EV market in a big way in the near future - and those vehicles still eligible for a $7500 Federal Tax Credit. (2) I don't foresee a major decrease in the base price of anything in the Tesla lineup, but they *will* keep increasing the range and/or standard offerings (3) Tesla production numbers have increased dramatically since the introduction of the Model 3. Increased supply of pre-owned vehicles suggests prices will fall more sharply than in past years when the population of aspirational Tesla owners far exceeded the number of available pre-owned Tesla. (4) Battery technology is making major advances in both capacity and production cost. This suggests that legacy EV models with degraded and/or comparatively low capacity batteries could become much less desirable by comparison. (5) Despite what the "look at the stock market" narrative may tell you, a recession is coming. (5) If unemployment rates persist near all-time records, I question whether the approval of L5 autonomy [thus eliminating the need for hundreds of thousands of drivers and making your FSD vehicle an appreciating asset] is going to happen within the time horizon of your ownership of your current vehicle. There's a good counterargument to this point in the time of Covid-19, but I think jobs will be the narrative driving policy on this front.
Having said that, I believe there's little justification to predict that rational consumers [let's leave aside the behavioral economics question as to whether or not any consumer is in fact rational] will continue to prop up Tesla resale values better than other vehicles over the coming decade. But they'll still be fun to own and drive. I'm picking up mine on Monday.
The newer / better tech came to 3 before S/X. S/X can't even charge as fast as 3/Y. So I think you are mistaken there.
SammichLover
Banned
First, as others have mentioned Battery Day is going to be a lot more about longterm roadmap than products today. Meaningful impact will take actual products, and more direct competing products.
Second, any continued talk of reasonably priced pack replacement/refurb options will only help resale value.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
No, they really have not.
Nope.
It was $69,000 for the P3D+, then 8k for EAP and FSD... so $77,000.
But then those folks got a $5000 refund when they made the PUP standard, so $72,000.
And they got a $7500 tax credit... so only $64,500.
They also got at least $500 in HW that's now pay-to-get like Homelink, 14-50 adapter, phone cables, frunk/trunk mats, etc...
They also got a bunch more HW you can't get at any price today- dead pedal, interior accent lights, auto-dim side mirrors, etc.
They also (if they ordered early enough) got lifetime premium connectivity.
Versus someone ordering a P3D+ today who would pay ~$62,000 with FSD (or $63,000 after June 30) or really $63,700 with the homelink and other HW added back that you CAN add and the higher destination charge they have now.
So a buyer today would "save"... roughly $800 compared to the 2018 buyer.... or roughly the same price if you count average length of ownership and having to pay for premium connectivity on the 2020.
And still be missing a bunch of HW you can't get at any price (the dimming side mirrors, the dead pedal, the interior accent lights, etc)
Not exactly a "notable reduction" that's gonna impact resale.
And that's the most expensive model.
For some trims the price today is higher than it has been in the past on the 3.
Resale? Who is selling?
I can’t wipe the smile from my face every time I drive it. The only reason I would sell is because a much better Tesla came out. So in that case, Tesla should keep improving if they want my business again.
I can’t wipe the smile from my face every time I drive it. The only reason I would sell is because a much better Tesla came out. So in that case, Tesla should keep improving if they want my business again.
Bought mine with unassailably bad timing; delivered mid March as used car market hitting deep freeze, just two months before the price drop. Couldn't be happier! One of my friends just ordered, two others chomping at the bit. Forget the resale market and enjoy an incredibly well-engineered and fun car. As another player suggested, if money the issue, by a Civic and invest the rest in Tesla stock!
SammichLover
Banned
Vehicle To Home
Vehicle-to-grid - Wikipedia
EDIT: It is in essence allows your vehicle to function as a back-up power supply for your house or functioning as a battery within your house's system. This isn't for selling back to the grid, just for your own house. Sage has a lot of PV solar production at his house.
CapeOne
Active Member
My M3 ignorance is showing as I was unaware that Tesla had given a refund. I was going strictly on sticker prices ($64k + $5k PU + $8k EAP/FSD + $1,200 destination and doc fee) to get $78,200 total.
So, $78,200 - $5k refund - $7,500 tax credit = $65,700. A new one today would be $63,190 plus $500 in HW you mentioned which in the end is still about $2k less not factoring in sales tax. A lower price today but not the $7k-$8k I first thought.
Thanks for enlightening me about the $5k Tesla refund.
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