What will battery day do to our resale values?

[SMAlset]

I don’t expect Battery Day to affect my car resale much since I plan to keep my 2018 AWD. I added FSD during the feature sale last March and put PPF and ceramic pro on it after buying it. With full complement of 3D Maxpider mats, carpeting looks great. Just had mobile out for the AC filters and condenser cleaning (great touchless service BTW) and they also brought my Dual Motor badging, proactively replaced the pins in my charge port and checked the frunk latch (last 2 apparently bulletin items). And added some air to the tires and checked tread and wear. Only 8K on the tires and told rotating recommended at 13K so still good to go. Car has lifetime premium connectivity. With the TeslaCam/Sentry improvements, premium audio and lights package that it came with in addition to all the other OTA updates, it still feels like I have a new car. I charge at home mostly although trying to use up my referral miles now so having a battery that would take me to 400 mile range is no big deal to me.

I do expect my TSLA stock I bought last year will benefit from battery day but bought it for the long term prospects I see coming from Tesla in the future and a desire to support their efforts. Unless the car is in an accident I don’t expect to be looking for anything else for sometime.

 

[Knightshade]

My M3 ignorance is showing as I was unaware that Tesla had given a refund. I was going strictly on sticker prices ($64k + $5k PU + $8k EAP/FSD + $1,200 destination and doc fee) to get $78,200 total.

Destination and Doc was $1000 back in summer of 2018

So, $78,200 - $5k refund - $7,500 tax credit = $65,700.

$65,500 with destination and FSD.

A new one today would be $63,190

Yes, for the next 3 weeks or so. Then it goes up to $64,190.

plus $500 in HW you mentioned

So $63,690 today, and $64,690 in just over 3 weeks.... versus $65,500 if you bought one summer of 2018.

And the marginally cheaper ones are missing free lifetime connectivity (so another $9.99 a month every month you owe it past the first year)

And missing a number of bits of HW they no longer offer at all (frunk hooks, side dimming mirrors, dead pedal, etc)


So again, hardly a compelling drop in price that'd matter much to resale.


And that's just on the P.


The SR, SR+, and LR AWD all cost more today than they did at launch with the tax credits figured in.

For example the SR was $32,450 net of tax credit including destination at launch. Today? $36,200.

The SR+ was $37,450 with destination at launch (with AP to make it apples to apples)- today it's $37,990

The LR AWD was $53,500 net of tax credit with destination summer of 2018 with FSD...today it's $55,190 with destination and FSD... and going up another $1000 July 1... (and again missing at least $500 in stuff you'll need to buy after you get the car, and other stuff you can't get anymore at all).

 

[AnthonyLR]

I think the big impact on resale values is if Tesla can make cheaper batteries and thereby reduce the new selling price. Other than that, I expect my M3 to be one of the lowest depreciating cars around (as it is currently). For most owners having a battery that is good for 1m miles makes zero difference. It's more about Vehicle to Grid or second life or Robotaxi. Just my 2 cents!

 

[one2many]

Tesla Model 3 beats Honda Civic as top-selling car in California
Please think about the effect on the poor Civic

 

[CapeOne]

Destination and Doc was $1000 back in summer of 2018

Tesla appears to have increased M3 destination and doc fee to $1,200 by at least July. Below is a window sticker with $1,200 dest/doc and $5,000 Performance Upgrade, plus other options bringing total to $82,200.

 

[Knightshade]

Tesla appears to have increased M3 destination and doc fee to $1,200 by at least July. Below is a window sticker with $1,200 dest/doc and $5,000 Performance Upgrade, plus other options bringing total to $82,200.

View attachment 548803

And mine, ordered in June 2018, was $925 dest/$75 doc.... $1000. Just as I told you.

Same cutoff for the lifetime connectivity (end of June 2018).

(and in the example you posted, as mentioned, that buyer would've been entitled to a $5000 refund of the PUP if he wanted it- alternatively he could've kept free lifetime supercharging (not available at all to later buyers- and not really worth 5k to most)





So again- for the P the initial price at introduction was very close to current price, net of tax credits (and nearly identical to what the price will be as of July 1 when FSD goes up again)

For the LR AWD, SR+, and SR, todays prices are actually higher that at each versions introduction net of tax credits- and will be another 1k higher still in just over 3 weeks.

And that's not even including the fact todays cars are missing some HW (and features in the case of the pre-july '18 orders) you simply can't add regardless of price.

 

[TX_M3P+]

10 years at best for double the range

The new Roadster promises a 620 mile range and I don't think that car is 10 years out. I get that it's a $250k car, but the battery will be here before 10 years time.

 

[CapeOne]

And mine, ordered in June 2018, was $925 dest/$75 doc.... $1000. Just as I told you..

That's fine. I was simply pointing out that by at least July it had increased to $1,200 and that was what I had based my previous $78,200 (w/ PU and EAP/FSD) sticker price figure on.

 

[Knightshade]

The new Roadster promises a 620 mile range and I don't think that car is 10 years out. I get that it's a $250k car, but the battery will be here before 10 years time.

...that doesn't really tell us anything though.

A double-stacked existing battery gets you 620 miles of range with no new tech at all.

 

[one2many]

The Tesla battery R&D guy said about 6 month ago that Li batteries
can maybe go 30% higher on density with an unknown timeline.
To double density it looks like Silicon may be the answer however
it not clear if this will ever work. I guess we will have to wait until
Tesla tells us what's up.

 

[jonquiljo]

You can't look at a car thinking about the resale all the time. You'll go crazy. Cars are to be used and (hopefully) enjoyed. You certainly can't buy one looking at resale in 4 years.

Tesla will give you better resale than most. But no car can be looked at as an investment - even a depreciating one. Too many factors that haven't even happened yet.

Just enjoy it.

 

[TX_M3P+]

...that doesn't really tell us anything though.

A double-stacked existing battery gets you 620 miles of range with no new tech at all.

But wouldn't that almost double the weigh of the car? More battery for more range doesn't seem to be the ideal solution for a super car. I mean a 0-60 time of 1.9 seconds from a 7000-8000lb car seems counter intuitive of what makes a super car a super car, which is typically a better power-to-weight ratio.

 

[dmurphy]

You can't look at a car thinking about the resale all the time. You'll go crazy. Cars are to be used and (hopefully) enjoyed. You certainly can't buy one looking at resale in 4 years.

Tesla will give you better resale than most. But no car can be looked at as an investment - even a depreciating one. Too many factors that haven't even happened yet.

Just enjoy it.

I have nothing to add, just wanted to quote this as you said it so perfectly.

 

[Knightshade]

But wouldn't that almost double the weigh of the car?

Increase yes- but nowhere near double though.

Consider- the S has a rated range of 391 miles (and elon claims it's really 400 and EPA screwed up test).

Double stack that pack and it'd be 800 (or thereabouts) all else being equal. Even taking a weight hit 620 isn't crazy.

More battery for more range doesn't seem to be the ideal solution for a super car. I mean a 0-60 time of 1.9 seconds from a 7000-8000lb car seems counter intuitive of what makes a super car a super car, which is typically a better power-to-weight ratio.

... how much do you think the battery pack weighs?

IIRC the P100D is just a bit over 1000 lbs of cells- so maybe 1200 lbs with the pack around it and whatnot?

Meaning double-stacking it would only bump weight on an S a little over 20%...maybe 25%?.

So 25% more weight, but 100% more battery, and going from ~400 miles of range to ~620 isn't crazy at all.

Now consider the roadster is gonna be smaller and lighter than the S by a fair bit APART from the battery packs...and 620 seems almost conservative for a 200kwh pack.

Especially if they use newer/better cell design to get the same 200 kwh in a smaller package.

 

[SigNC]

Tesla appears to have increased M3 destination and doc fee to $1,200 by at least July. Below is a window sticker with $1,200 dest/doc and $5,000 Performance Upgrade, plus other options bringing total to $82,200.

View attachment 548803

This is a very old pic. EAP hasn't been sold for well over a year.

 

[TX_M3P+]

... how much do you think the battery pack weighs?

M3P, according to the manual, sits at 5073lbs. I assumed that at least 2000 of that was battery, but the manual doesn't have a separate weight listing for just the battery. So, in my mind, adding an additional 2000lbs takes the car to 7000lbs, which is a lot of weight to push to a 1.9 0-60 time.

Especially if they use newer/better cell design to get the same 200 kwh in a smaller package.

This is more what I'm getting at, that there will likely be something new (something we don't have today) that will help deliver the 620 mile range on the new Roadster when it is released. The original comment I was replying to stated that doubling our current range wouldn't be seen for another 10 years, which I don't think is accurate at all. Maybe I believe in Elon more than I should? I have a feeling that with more and more auto manufacturers jumping into the EV segment, Elon is going to really be pushing hard to differentiate his products from the rest of the pack, and battery tech is one area he already has a big jump on. I predict we will see some pretty amazing advances in the next 5 years for sure, especially around battery power, range and efficiency.

 

[Knightshade]

M3P, according to the manual, sits at 5073lbs.

Err...no it does not.


Curb weight on the M3P is 4100 lbs.


Possibly you're reading the fully loaded weight- like max load with cargo/passengers?

I assumed that at least 2000 of that was battery

Not even close to that, no.... the Model 3 pack is like 900-something pounds for LR- considerably less for SR obviously.

 

[CapeOne]

This is a very old pic. EAP hasn't been sold for well over a year.

Yes, the discussion in question was regarding 2018 pricing. The image I posted was part of a window sticker for a 2018 M3.

 

[TX_M3P+]

Err...no it does not.


Curb weight on the M3P is 4100 lbs.


Possibly you're reading the fully loaded weight- like max load with cargo/passengers?




Not even close to that, no.... the Model 3 pack is like 900-something pounds for LR- considerably less for SR obviously.

Yeah, I was looking at the GVWR value...

Didn't realize that the GVWR value included passengers and cargo.

So even at 4100lb curb weight, only 900 of that is battery? I assumed it would be close to 40% of the total car weight.

 

[Glamisduner]

Would you still want a million mile battery if it offered less range, less performance, and slower charging rates and higher cost?