What will Battery upgrades cost on Model 3?

[HanSolo]

I've noticed that Europeans often have no concept of how vast the US is. A friend of mine who lives just outside of Detroit had some visitors from Europe. When they were figuring out what to do they suggested driving down to DisneyWorld for the day. They were shocked to discover it would take over 16 hours just to get there.

Most people from other compact countries have no clue. This is also why public transportation outside of select cities does not really work too well. I have driven across this entire country and have driven to Alaska and then back. I have had people get shocked when I told them that my drive to Seattle alone from Ohio was a hard 3 day drive and the drive to Alaska was a hard 7 day drive spending 12-16 hours a day driving.

Now that I think of it, most gas-powered cars already get about 350 miles per tank without having to upgrade anything at thousands of dollars of expense. This car is starting to look like a money pit after all... the exact opposite of what it was envisioned to be.

Perhaps it is the high upfront cost. This will be one of the reasons why people will cancel their order as they did not realize just how expensive entry level luxury cars can get once you add some options. I am more worried about how that really expensive battery pack will hold up over time and distance. Since I can drive through the warranty quick, the last thing I need is to end up junking my M3 at 110k miles because a new battery costs $12k.

 

[Sharkbait]

I agree. The cost of replacing a battery pack will be expensive. So much like the silicon-based solar panels installed at my residence having a guarantee to produce 90% of their original power output over the first 10 years, and 80% over years 11-20, battery packs should have a similar guarantee of some sort.

I have a beautiful 2006 Lexus LS430 that I bought new. It's in perfect condition. If I had to replace the engine, which easily has another 100,000 miles of life, it would be painful as well.

I can maintain the ICE engine but there is really little I can do about batteries and battery packs. Further, gasoline is now less than $2/gallon in most states and projected to remain there for at least a couple years or more. $12,000 buys a lot of gasoline.

But it's not only about the cost of battery packs. It's also about our future. Early adopters push the technology forward and costs will come down. You want to play, you gotta pay.

 

[HanSolo]

I agree. The cost of replacing a battery pack will be expensive. So much like the silicon-based solar panels installed at my residence having a guarantee to produce 90% of their original power output over the first 10 years, and 80% over years 11-20, battery packs should have a similar guarantee of some sort. I have a beautiful 2006 Lexus LS430 that's in perfect condition. If I had to replace the the engine, which easily has another 120,000 miles of life right now, it would be painful as well.

I can maintain the ICE engine but there is really little I can do about batteries.

What I like about the luxury brands such as Lexus, Lincoln, and so on is that they keep things fairly reasonable. Lexus and Lincoln are my 2 favorite luxury car makers because of the reasonable cost of upkeep, and generally high level of quality which is one of the cardinal reasons why people buy a Lexus. That beautiful Lexus will not be like replacing a Benz S-class or BMW 7 Series engine, although it will certainly not be like putting in a new engine in a F150.

 

[voip-ninja]

With so many rapid chargers being brought on line, is capacity beyond 250 miles worth paying an extra 5k for? I don't know about you, but here in the UK, 250 miles can easily take 5 hours with the traffic, which is about 2 hours more than I need for a bathroom break! As long as it does 150 miles with ease in the depths of winter, I will be very happy.

They will probably do different things in different markets but one likely thing is option bundling so that for example to get AWD you have to get the bigger battery or you can't get the full tech package and leather without bigger battery.

Musk has said battery capacity of at least 215 in the Model 3. 250 in the base model is being very optimistic. Probably the upgraded pack will give under 300 miles (say 280) and you will pay a premium for it.

 

[nexsuperne101]

Although it does depend very much on how you drive. The slower you go, the further you go. I really noticed that with the Nissan Leaf. Driving at 50mph instead of 70mph gets at least another 25% distance (which is a lot when 100 miles per charge is the holy grail of 24KWh batteries).

 

[ProtomanX]

I agree. The cost of replacing a battery pack will be expensive. So much like the silicon-based solar panels installed at my residence having a guarantee to produce 90% of their original power output over the first 10 years, and 80% over years 11-20, battery packs should have a similar guarantee of some sort.

As expensive as it is, it still cheaper than the maintenance cost of a BMW or Mercedes. Also, if the gigafactory is fully built and in operation, then the cost of battery will significantly reduce.

 

[Justmurr]

I am in the category of not being concerned on range...but I do want that performance upgrade.

That's what I'm saving for...that extra $9-10K ...for just the 'performance' upgrade...which as I understand requires the dual motors and bigger battery first, which I'm assuming is another $8 to $12K

So even before I think about any other upgrades I am in the mid-50s.

It gets really hard to justify paying more than $60k for ANY car ..at least in my middle-class world.
That performance upgrade might just be too much for me... But silver lining is that I do have some time to store some cash so who knows?

 

[lklundin]

I agree it would probably be sufficient there however the UK and Europe in general is a much more compact space. The US is a much larger land mass and people drive exponentially more here. The range is much more of a concern here and I would need to see at least 250 miles range on the larger battery but hopefully more to make it worth it. I would be super happy with over 300 and would never worry about range.

That is a too simplistic view(*), since in Europe (and especially in Germany) people drive faster than in the USA, and the higher speeds really reduce the range.

As such I could easily burn through a 200 kWh battery in less than one day of driving here.

So in about 15 years when the expected exponential growth in battery capacity allows for a 200 kWh battery in a Tesla, I think this would be the ideal situation:

1) The vast majority of people's range needs can be covered with something like a 80 kWh battery and the occasional supercharger + destination charger. Compared to the 200 kWh battery, the one with 80 kWh is cheaper to buy, means less unused weight to impede acceleration and has somewhat better range per unit energy.

2) For the small remainder of these range needs (e.g. road trip with high speed, a trailer, two alternating drivers, autopiloted driving), Tesla can offer a 200 kWh rental battery. The Tesla owner books it and goes to the Tesla Station for a three minute swap-operation. The Tesla Station uses the batteries (big & small) to reduce the peak-load of its nearby superchargers. Tesla will know well enough when the car returns to have the owner's battery fully charged upon return. Similar to rental cars it is more expensive to return the rented battery at a different location.

3) Those who prefer to can purchase their Tesla with the maximum available capacity battery.

(*) I am unsure if 'exponentially' is even being used in a meaningful way here.

PS. Apparently some people in the USA seem unaware that their population is reputedly embarrassingly ignorant about the geography of other continents. Last night I was having a chat with a gentleman who had driven over from Moscow (he needed some jump cables for his car). But what difference does anecdotes like that make? And how many people know that it is a shorter drive from Munich to Moscow than from Munich to Sevastopol (or to Luleå, Sweden)? And what does that matter to a discussion about battery ranges?

 

[cpa]

I feel that a large percentage of new buyers will keep at least one ICE. I also feel that Tesla will want to appeal to as many buyers as possible. With ~400,000 deposits on hand, Tesla will do their level best to keep cancellations to a minimum. Tesla wants mass adoption, and the public reaction from 20-30% cancellations due to pricing and/or options will not set well with the public or investors.

So, I could envision three battery sizes--215 as announced (say 55 kWh); 245-250 (say 65); 290 (say 75). Use any kWh capacity that makes sense--I am assuming 3.9 miles per kWh due to better aerodynamics and less mass.

Options for the low-end vehicle will be limited to cap the price at $42,000. The remaining two sizes will have all the bells and whistles available with perhaps a P75D reaching $65,000 fully loaded. Many current owners of S/X or Roadster might easily opt for the fully loaded versions. Families with two cars who keep their ICE(s) might opt for the low end as a commuter car or college car for their college-age kid. Younger, single folks might choose from the middle--enough range for those weekend road trips or visits to family and friends. Tesla wants this car in as many hands as possible.

There are many people who have no need for the winter package, fancy wheels, all-wheel drive or ultra deluxe premium sound. But they would like a nice interior or all-glass roof (if not standard) or autopilot activated.

It remains uncertain to what extent Supercharger access will be--whether unfettered or restricted or some other model. (And let's not rehash this topic in this thread!)

Much as the S started out with three sizes with an abrupt cancellation of the software-limited 40kWh battery due to low demand, Tesla may very well determine after the initial 50,000 orders that the three-sizes are one too many. But at least Tesla will have some data to determine whether a wider selection of battery sizes is sustainable from a demand, manufacturing and profitability standpoint.

 

[SpiceWare]

PS. Apparently some people in the USA seem unaware that their population is reputedly embarrassingly ignorant about the geography of other continents.

From my experience the ignorance works both ways.

Back in the 80s and 90s I ran a Commodore BBS that I wrote. It supported real time music, on the fly font replacement, sprite and character animation, joystick control (yep, you could play online BBS games using your joystick), text buffering (made for super fast menus even at 300 baud), and other features. I had a regular caller from Germany who used the internet at his university to connect to an outgoing modem here in Houston to call my BBS. One time we were chatting and he made the comment that you Americans are arrogant because you don't learn other languages.

I corrected him with the fact that at all the schools I'd attended* most of my friends did learn another language(in part because it was required at a number of the schools). The problem was we seldom got to exercise them, because it was so expensive to travel to where we could use them, so we quickly forgot once we got out of school. He didn't understand how that could be so I asked how long it would take him to drive to another country where it was useful to know another language? He replied 3 hours, and another 3 hours to get to yet another country with another language. I told him that was close enough for inexpensive weekend getaways. For me, living in Houston, it was a 7 hour drive (slower speed limits back then) to get to Mexico and if I'd known I was going to end up in Texas I would have taken Spanish instead of German (ja ich kann deutsch, aber nicht sehr gut). If I head north it would take me multiple days of driving to get to Canada (27 hours to Toronto, again slower speed limit at the time) and they spoke English. His response was wow, had no idea.


*army brat - we moved a lot. When I was 25 I'd figured out I'd moved 25 times. I've lived in numerous cities in Alabama, Georgia, Wisconsin, Illinois and Texas.

 

[CyberKnife]

My vote is that it would be under 5k for battery upgrade . I am surprised more votes higher than that. Don't let tesla see that we are will dish out extra cash and make this more costly. Don't keep a model s mind set here, message to myself too.

If tesla has a target of 150$ (I remember some talks of even 100 to 130$ range) per kwh that makes 3k for 20 additional kwh battery upgrade. Let's supposed that tesla is able to fit 40 more kwh for upgrade which is probably not likely but that would be 6k for the upgrade.

Looking at model s the 20kwh upgrade gets about 50 more miles, 40kwh would be 100 miles extra. 40 kwh ugrrade would put model 3 at least 315 miles! I would be willing to accept 6k for the extra range but I think 5k for 20kwh upgrade will be offered initial production launch.

 

[Buzby]

I've noticed that Europeans often have no concept of how vast the US is. A friend of mine who lives just outside of Detroit had some visitors from Europe. When they were figuring out what to do they suggested driving down to DisneyWorld for the day. They were shocked to discover it would take over 16 hours just to get there.

I've noticed Ameticans similarly have no clue where most European countries are. It all boils down to intelligence, not where you are located. So with that in mind, sweeping generalisations of distances whether realistic or otherwise are hardly valid.

 

[Az_Rael]

Now that I think of it, most gas-powered cars already get about 350 miles per tank without having to upgrade anything at thousands of dollars of expense. This car is starting to look like a money pit after all... the exact opposite of what it was envisioned to be.

I don't know how long you have been following Tesla, but this is all par for the course. They usually do sell a car for the "advertised" price, but it won't have all the features most people want (think 40kW Model S). My experience with having watched their progress since the roadster is the cars are always more expensive than the hype predicts.

I was all in to buy the $50k Model S back in the day thinking maybe I could get one with a decent range for just under $60k. Then the actual prices came out. Turned out the Model S with the range I would need/want was actually in the $70k neighborhood. I was instantly priced out and sorely disappointed.

So, since we are starting from such a low number this time around ($35k), I have high hopes that I will actually be able to afford the Model 3 I want in that $50k price range I was originally hoping for with the Model S. But I do feel for people who will be in the same boat as I was when the Model S came out. $35-$40k might be a stretch for them, and when the actual pricing with options does come out, they might end up disappointed.

 

[Jersey Shore Tom]

My hope, not predication is a 60 KWH battery for base with a 90 KWH option. With AWD and the extra weight of the bigger battery, that should result in a range of ~310 per charge.

Assuming cost at the pack level is down to $175 per KWH, the extra cost to Tesla is $5,250.
Assuming a Gross Margin of 35% that means an upgrade price of $8,077, round it to $8,100.

 

[Colsla]

My hope, not predication is a 60 KWH battery for base with a 90 KWH option. With AWD and the extra weight of the bigger battery, that should result in a range of ~310 per charge.

Assuming cost at the pack level is down to $175 per KWH, the extra cost to Tesla is $5,250.
Assuming a Gross Margin of 35% that means an upgrade price of $8,077, round it to $8,100.

I agree with base battery size.. I think you are being overly conservative with 175 per kWh. It is assumed to be at 200 kWh today. GF is already ahead of schedule today and producing batteries already and it's 1.5~2 yrs from today that we're talking about. 1/8 in cost reduction over 2 yrs with the economies of scale provided by GF seems... too conservative..

 

[Sharkbait]

So, since we are starting from such a low number this time around ($35k), I have high hopes that I will actually be able to afford the Model 3 I want in that $50k price range I was originally hoping for with the Model S. But I do feel for people who will be in the same boat as I was when the Model S came out. $35-$40k might be a stretch for them, and when the actual pricing with options does come out, they might end up disappointed.

My exact sentiment. When it comes time to pick options and order the car, I wonder how many will be disappointed and ask for the return of their reservation deposit? I'm not sure what option/s most buyers will pick for Elon's "$42,000" delivery but it will certainly be far fewer than what they want. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[johnnyS]

I put down a deposit on a model S in 2011 based upon the starting price of $49,000 after government rebates. By the time the car came out I convinced myself I needed the largest battery and a number of options. The price of my S85 with sales tax in December 2012 was a hair under $100K (before rebates). I expect a similar situation with model 3. I am sure you will be able to buy a very nice car for close to the base price, but the options could easily double the base price.

 

[MostlyStock]

My guess is $7500. I'm guessing the large battery will be 15 kWh larger than the small battery and Tesla will charge around $500/kWh (what they can make it for and what they charge for it are two very different things). It should be noted that this will also include better 0-60 times and maybe a higher top speed from the same motor.

 

[HanSolo]

My exact sentiment. When it comes time to pick options and order the car, I wonder how many will be disappointed and ask for the return of their reservation deposit? I'm not sure what option/s most buyers will pick for Elon's "$42,000" delivery but it will certainly be far fewer than what they want. Hope I'm wrong.

If they follow the Porsche or BMW playbook, you will get there easily just by opting for the premium paint job, leather seating instead of leatherette, and maybe an interior wood or carbon fiber trim package. It is really scary how fast the price goes up as you tick the options boxes.

 

[SpiceWare]

I've noticed Ameticans similarly have no clue where most European countries are. It all boils down to intelligence, not where you are located. So with that in mind, sweeping generalisations of distances whether realistic or otherwise are hardly valid.

As I mentioned in that follow up (reply #30), the ignorance is both ways. It has nothing to do with intelligence though, it's what you need to know for your day-to-day life. When you don't use knowledge on a regular basis, being it a different language or locations of other countries, you're going to forget it. Sure back in the late 70s/early 80s I memorized where all the countries were located, but nowadays I'm more concerned with what I need to know for writing software that's used to design space craft rather than remembering where Moldova is. Likewise I once learned all the US states, but nowadays I'd be hard pressed to locate all 50 on a blank map (I always mix up the small ones out east).

The problem with distance is due to maps being drawn using a Mercator projection. Land masses further from the equator appear to be larger than equivalent land masses closer to the equator. When you look at a world map, Germany and Texas appear to be fairly close in size. The reality is Texas (696,241 km^2) is almost twice the size of Germany (357,168 km^2). Likewise Sweden and Finland both look significantly larger than Texas, but they're actually both smaller (450,295 km^2 and 338,424 km^2 respectively). Africa and Greenland really show off this distortion problem - they look the same size on the map even though Africa (30,370,000 km^2) is 14 times larger than Greenland (2,166,086 km^2).