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What will happen if Tesla announces a 110kWh pack for the S

Discussion in 'Model S' started by richkae, Oct 20, 2014.

  1. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    Suppose at some point in the near future, Tesla announces a 110kWh pack available next month.

    How many will be mad that they just took delivery of an 85kWh car?
    How many will want to sell their 85kWh car and upgrade asap?

    For those of you who are upset by the way Tesla announces upgrades, what do you expect them to do?

    Manufacturers that schedule changes on the model year have an inventory buffer that they can discount at the tail end of the cycle.
    They also have a huge product line and never update it all at once - spreading the changeover cost across many years.

    Tesla has no buffer, they build on demand. They have exactly one product, and announcing a big upgrade too far in advance could stall the pipeline.
    If the factory is idle, then they are losing money. It is not one factory out of dozens, it is their entire business.
    Should they raise prices on all the other cars to plan for a slowdown/discounting when they give an early announcement of a major new feature?


    It will happen again. What exactly should they do differently?
     
  2. MsElectric

    MsElectric Active Member

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    Make everyone sign and agreement saying they will not complain or throw a fit when Tesla continues to innovate as a part of the finalizing process of an order :)
     
  3. markwj

    markwj Moderator, Asia Pacific

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    Very good question. Interesting game. I suspect that the only winning move is not to play.

    Of the obvious options, none are good:
    • Pre-announce it. That will kill the sales pipeline.
    • Have a regular release cycle. That will introduce peaks and troughs to the factory, which would be a nightmare.
    • Don't innovate. Not an option.
    • Announce with zero notice. Suffer the complaints.

    The only option left, imho, is to play the game by intentionally delaying shipments and/or inflating the early price, while offering (expensive) upgrades to existing customers. So, the new 110kWh pack is available at +US$20k on the 85kWh pack, and if you want it your order may be delayed 3 more months. If you want to upgrade 85kWh->110kWh, sure, but it'll be US$30k trade-in price. By the way, we've got a certified trade in program which operates with the following formula...

    The problem with inflating the price, of course, is that when you later lower it then you get the same complaints - but that can be somewhat offset by paying back the difference to those who bought at the inflated price in the past N months.

    How about a nice game of chess?
     
  4. MikeL

    MikeL some guy

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    Keep innovating. They know this. Blowback from the D was nutso, and temporary. As a Model X res holder somewhere in the thousands, I expect 2 things: to get the best car ever AND to have the ones that come after mine to be better. Simple yet effective
     
  5. breser

    breser AutoPilot Nostradamus

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    Haven't we discussed this to death already on the other threads?

    If Tesla rolls this out as a new option (like the D) then they don't need to do anything in my opinion.

    If they roll it out so that the baseline changes, then they should announce changes in advance of people starting to get upgraded vehicles so that people can choose to decline delivery or change their orders. If they want to roll something into the baseline they should probably add it as an option, require people that want to modify the order to give up their deposit and pay for the option (on top of having their delivery delayed), thus giving people a disincentive to change existing orders. Once the pipeline gets flushed of old orders from before the new option, then roll it into baseline.

    There really hasn't been much in the way of complaints about price drops. I don't see anyone complaining about paying for fog lights and the Tech Package and then seeing them rolled into the Tech Package. I don't see anyone complaining about the HPWC price drop. I don't see anyone complaining about the wheel price drop happening. Everyone understands that price drops will happen.

    That said, I don't really see anything good coming out of this thread. I'm sure there will be plenty of people coming along to say why the above can't be done. I have no idea what can be done, but I think the above scenario would reduce customer disappointment.
     
  6. Tasdevil

    Tasdevil Member

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    Tesla will get a lot of orders from people upgrading, or buying new because the "current range isn't enough"
    Easy way for tesla to boost demand when they want to.
     
  7. BlueTan85

    BlueTan85 Member

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    If Tesla's smart, they'll figure out a way to make a higher-capacity battery fit in the exact same pack that fits in existing S's now. So that if they do announce, say, a 110kWh battery, it's backward-compatible as an add-on option to all existing owners back to the original 2012 cars.

    *That* would be something.
     
  8. Lerxt

    Lerxt Member

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    The comments that don't involve a passive aggressive stance in this thread are interesting.

    Its is clear that Tesla need an upgrade path after an announcement. To specifically answer the question, the easiest way to do this is an option to upgrade the pack. This may include an option to lease the pack, then Tesla has a further revenue source, allows recycling of the components, and keeps everyone who has supported them in the game.
     
  9. morbot

    morbot Member

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    While I wouldn't count on it being a sure thing, I really hope something like this happens. Assuming Tesla wants to roll out a battery swapping network, it would make sense for it to be as compatible with all their models as possible. Imagine 5 or 10 years from now in a battery swapping world where, for a small fee, you could swap in a higher capacity battery for a roadtrip, then swap back in to your "around town" battery when you get home.

    Or, after many years when your original battery is losing capacity and new more advanced batteries are on the market, you simply replace the battery (and maybe a few internal components) instead of buying a new car outright.

    One can dream :)
     
  10. Kondo

    Kondo Member

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    I just got home from a 6100 mile 2 week road trip in my 1 week old P85 and never needed a 110 kWh pack. Using 45 SC's is all I needed. The first day I was not totally comfortable with a 1 week old car but I soon found evtripplanner was very accurate and I put complete trust in that product. It makes the 85 battery sufficient in taking cross country trips. Love my car more now than when I picked it up 3 weeks ago.
     
  11. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

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    One way to mitigate the criticism is to send recent buyers a check.

    If they compensate the buyers of the last 90 days by 100 dollars per day they bought the car after 90 days prior to the announcement, I'm sure many people would be satisfied.

    Like:

    Bought 89 days prior to announcement = 100 dollar check
    Bought 60 days prior to announcement = 3000 dollar check
    Bought 30 days prior to announcement = 6000 dollar check
    Bought 10 days prior to announcement = 8000 dollar check

    This would of course cost a fair bit of money. Probably around 50 million dollars at current sales rates. Would it be worth it? Probably not.
     
  12. tomas

    tomas Traded in 9 rep bars for M3, used to be somebody!

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    I love love love this idea! Buy the car but lease the pack. Trade up pack at end of lease, or earlier with a buyout. P85d for maybe 85k plus $600/mo 36 month battery lease. Where do I sign?
     
  13. scottf200

    scottf200 Active Member

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    That went over like a lead balloon when they tried/offered that with the LEAF. They do rent batteries in other countries tho. Renault - The Long Tail Pipe: Renault customers cry foul over battery pack rental terms - Owning the car but renting the pack puts car makers in drivers seat?
     
  14. CRASCH

    CRASCH Member

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    This is exactly what they should do.
     
  15. Flyshacker

    Flyshacker Member

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    They should recommend to all customers to strongly consider LEASING and not BUYING. Make clear to everyone that changes are ALWAYS coming (if they haven't done so already), and make clear that obsolescence is a big factor when buying rapidly advancing technology. Buyer beware.
     
  16. Barry

    Barry Member

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    Tesla could solve this problem by creating model years for its cars. New year, new car, just like every other manufacturer.
    You don't hear owners complain, "I just bought a 2013 Honda Accord and I'm really pissed because they added a new ________ to the 2014 model."
     
  17. zro ltr

    zro ltr Member

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    Not to take this too far off-topic, but was there plenty of Supercharger access on your trip? I'm planning on making a trip from Eastern NC to Austin, TX in the next few months (shortly after I receive my car) and the prospect seems daunting to say the least.
     
  18. rlang59

    rlang59 Member

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    As long as they don't deliver two cars on the same day where one has a surprise 110kWh pack and the other doesn't I don't think there will be as big a stink as there was this time. Most of the the issues I saw came from including the new sensors on some cars and not on others.
     
  19. tomas

    tomas Traded in 9 rep bars for M3, used to be somebody!

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    #19 tomas, Oct 21, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2014
    Or let's not forget A batteries delivered alongside and after B batteries.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I think it would be different with Tesla. You are already locked in. Different buyer. Plus tesla battery is interchangeable so there could be upgrades and buyouts, which were issues with other schemes.
     
  20. ElSupreme

    ElSupreme Model S 03182

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    This is really the only option for a build to order model of car sales.

    Otherwise you have a gap of production because you don't have enough orders.
     

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