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What will happen if Tesla announces a 110kWh pack for the S

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I just got home from a 6100 mile 2 week road trip in my 1 week old P85 and never needed a 110 kWh pack. Using 45 SC's is all I needed. The first day I was not totally comfortable with a 1 week old car but I soon found evtripplanner was very accurate and I put complete trust in that product. It makes the 85 battery sufficient in taking cross country trips. Love my car more now than when I picked it up 3 weeks ago.

Agree! I don't see the need for a larger pack with more weight and more cost. There's proof that you can make the same trip on a 60kWh pack. Tesla knows where the long stretches are and they're addressing them in their Supercharger roll-out plan. Not sure where the 110kWh hype began...
 
I think leasing components that are easily retro-fittable such as batteries is a great idea.

That said, slightly off topic, is there any other countries than Japan not to be able to accommodate "wider and heavier" than Model S? Here, most of our parkings are designed to have 195cm (76.8in) and for mechanical parking, 2200kg (4846lbs).
110kWh with current technology would give 160kg (352lbs) more weight.
 
There's an easy solution to this. Don't buy a new Tesla till they announce a big change or feature. Kind of like how I don't buy a new iPhone unless it's the brand spankin new model. That way you can feel good about it longer before the next cool feature is out
 
Because we know it's easy and fast to swap a battery pack, they need to offer pack trade-ins. If it's a lot or a little money, they'd have to decide.

Other items like dual motors are not so easy to retrofit so they can't be offered.

I do think if you trade-in a used Tesla for a new Tesla they should give special consideration for the returning customer. Even if they didn't make as much on the trade-in as they would like, it would be a great incentive and "thank you for your repeat business" for the owner.

-m
 
Agree! I don't see the need for a larger pack with more weight and more cost. There's proof that you can make the same trip on a 60kWh pack. Tesla knows where the long stretches are and they're addressing them in their Supercharger roll-out plan. Not sure where the 110kWh hype began...

All other things being equal, a larger pack means more range and faster charging, which means more flexibility and a lower charge:drive ratio. Both are good and the question is just a matter of balancing the gains against the extra cost and lower efficiency.

110kWh is considered to be a natural next step with incremental improvement in cell density.

The reason it's important isn't just that it'll help winter mountain sports people. It's a step towards the magical target of 300 miles. 300 highway miles means about 4 hours of driving between charges and at that point you're can really charge naturally while having a meal.
 
There will obviously be a larger battery, and it will definitely fit into the same form factor, so they're interchangeable.

Whether or not it will be exactly 110kWh is anyone's guess, but it is 85+25 (same as 85 is 60+25) and fits with calculations that increase battery capacity by 7.5% per year starting with 85kWh in 2011.

201185.000
201291.375
201398.228
2014105.595
2015113.515
(IIRC the Model S slipped by a year from 2011 to 2012, after they'd announced battery capacities... meanwhile the battery industry kept on improving by 7.5% per year)

Thoughts/predictions -
  • There will simply be an increased battery option, and it will be a $20,000 option versus $10,000 for the current 85kWh battery. As usual there will be no recourse for prior buyers.
  • They may only make it available on the Model X at first, for whatever reasons.
  • 60, 85 and 110 battery packs from this point on will use the newest-capacity 18650 batteries, and so in fact, new cars with the newer 60 or 85 batteries will be lighter and faster, though the center of gravity may move a little higher. The 110 will have the lowest center of gravity, therefore the P110D will be the king of kings, and $130,000 base price.
  • There has been some speculation (by myself and others) that the 110kWh battery will be able to provide more instantaneous current to invertors, thereby giving some sort of further performance benefit. I'm not enough of an engineer to say this is guaranteed.
 
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As a side note, my guess is that larger capacity batteries will come from improved technology and higher storage densities. This should increase capacity without increasing weight. With tire carrying capacity limitations, I do not think a model S any heavier than it is today would work.
 
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Very good question. Interesting game. I suspect that the only winning move is not to play.

Of the obvious options, none are good:
  • Pre-announce it. That will kill the sales pipeline.
  • Have a regular release cycle. That will introduce peaks and troughs to the factory, which would be a nightmare.
  • Don't innovate. Not an option.
  • Announce with zero notice. Suffer the complaints.

The only option left, imho, is to play the game by intentionally delaying shipments and/or inflating the early price, while offering (expensive) upgrades to existing customers. So, the new 110kWh pack is available at +US$20k on the 85kWh pack, and if you want it your order may be delayed 3 more months. If you want to upgrade 85kWh->110kWh, sure, but it'll be US$30k trade-in price. By the way, we've got a certified trade in program which operates with the following formula...

The problem with inflating the price, of course, is that when you later lower it then you get the same complaints - but that can be somewhat offset by paying back the difference to those who bought at the inflated price in the past N months.

How about a nice game of chess?

Nice Wargames reference!
 
... The reason it's important isn't just that it'll help winter mountain sports people. It's a step towards the magical target of 300 miles. 300 highway miles means about 4 hours of driving between charges and at that point you're can really charge naturally while having a meal.

The 300 mile target is just about here. The S85D is rated for 295 miles. (The S60D rated at 225 miles over the S60s 208 miles.) I find the range improvements over the RWD cars even more amazing than the 0-60 times! It will be interesting to see if these claimed range improvements bear out in practice. If so that seems to say that as time goes on, AWD will the preferred configuration for all but perhaps the least expensive electric cars.
 
Agree! I don't see the need for a larger pack with more weight and more cost. There's proof that you can make the same trip on a 60kWh pack. Tesla knows where the long stretches are and they're addressing them in their Supercharger roll-out plan. Not sure where the 110kWh hype began...

It's funny on forums when you find responses that try to invalidate the original poster's message. "There's no point asking that question, because ABC..." etc.

The larger capacity battery pack won't weigh more, it'll weigh the same as current battery packs. (or not appreciably more anyway)

Larger batteries don't get invalidated by Tesla's "genius" supercharger layout. Using a supercharger still has some inconvenience to it... you have to schedule your travel around the 30-minute wait times, etc.. Surely you agree it will be less inconvenient when you can skip a Supercharger and drive to the next one. (Possible with higher pack capacities)

People still want to drive off-road wherever they want, and there ain't going to be superchargers. Imagine when we can drive a Model X like this:
Off-road trip to Northern Nevada Desert - YouTube or this:
iceland 4x4 video in deep water - YouTube (electrics are very good underwater, and don't pollute the water!)

People need to start realising that you have to drive economically to achieve the quoted ranges, and this is incredibly restrictive. I know... i do it all the time. But what if you want to gun it.... drive like a bat out of hell? What if you simply can't drive economically for some reason? Larger battery packs are necessary for tougher driving circumstances, e.g. -

  • driving regular roads up into mountain areas
  • driving off-road
  • driving at 75mph or 85mph when the freeway speed limit allows it (and plenty do)
  • driving in sub-zero weather

When an 85kWh battery can't get you 300 miles, perhaps a 110kWh battery will. When an 85kWh battery can't even get you 200 miles... perhaps a 100kWh battery will.
 
Very good question. Interesting game. I suspect that the only winning move is not to play.

Of the obvious options, none are good:
  • Pre-announce it. That will kill the sales pipeline.
  • Have a regular release cycle. That will introduce peaks and troughs to the factory, which would be a nightmare.
  • Don't innovate. Not an option.
  • Announce with zero notice. Suffer the complaints.

The only option left, imho, is to play the game by intentionally delaying shipments and/or inflating the early price, while offering (expensive) upgrades to existing customers. So, the new 110kWh pack is available at +US$20k on the 85kWh pack, and if you want it your order may be delayed 3 more months. If you want to upgrade 85kWh->110kWh, sure, but it'll be US$30k trade-in price. By the way, we've got a certified trade in program which operates with the following formula...

The problem with inflating the price, of course, is that when you later lower it then you get the same complaints - but that can be somewhat offset by paying back the difference to those who bought at the inflated price in the past N months.

How about a nice game of chess?
Loved that movie!
 
+1 @martinaustin
I'll also add that, for many supercharger routes, ~300 mile range would allow going to every other supercharger vs. every one. That could save ~4 hours on a ~2,000 mile trip.

If you skip one, you'll just have to spend twice as long at the next one....unless you're skipping it in order to get to an overnight charger. A mile used is a mile that needs recovery.