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What will happen if Tesla announces a 110kWh pack for the S

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How many will be mad that they just took delivery of an 85kWh car?
How many will want to sell their 85kWh car and upgrade asap?

Complete guesswork on my part, but from watching the "Tesla for Sale" section after the D announcement and other parts of this forum, I'm going to throw out these guesses:

a) Mad: some, miffed: all.

b) P85+ owners: 99%, P85 owners: 90%, S85 owners: 50%
 
If you skip one, you'll just have to spend twice as long at the next one....unless you're skipping it in order to get to an overnight charger. A mile used is a mile that needs recovery.


OK, I'm risk averse, so would generally want to charge up to 90+ JUST IN CASE, so spend lots of charging time in the bad end of the taper curve. Running down lower (as you would by skipping a charger) takes you into the sweet end of the curve. Cumulative charge time for doing every other charger would not be 1:1. Plus, you'd save the time of getting off highway and to:fro charger, plus any slight reroutes you might be doing to hit all your charge points. Plus save any inefficiencies (car was done charging, but waited to start off while I a. finished an email, b. finished a phone cal, c. went to the washroom, d. waited for the lunch check).
 
If you skip one, you'll just have to spend twice as long at the next one....unless you're skipping it in order to get to an overnight charger. A mile used is a mile that needs recovery.

Not true. Wrong, in fact.

If you're supercharging the battery from a lower state-of-charge, it goes faster. Well known by current Supercharger users, and described here under "HOW IT WORKS" - Supercharger | Tesla Motors

Therefore charging a battery from 20% up to full takes less time than two separate superchargings where the battery starts at 60% full. Giving you incentive to drive to a more distant Supercharger (if you can).

FYI I personally always charge up to full when using Superchargers, because, I am always about to get on the road and use the car! :)
 
Not true. Wrong, in fact.

If you're supercharging the battery from a lower state-of-charge, it goes faster. Well known by current Supercharger users, and described here under "HOW IT WORKS" - Supercharger | Tesla Motors

Therefore charging a battery from 20% up to full takes less time than two separate superchargings where the battery starts at 60% full. Giving you incentive to drive to a more distant Supercharger (if you can).

FYI I personally always charge up to full when using Superchargers, because, I am always about to get on the road and use the car! :)

You can always charge up to full at a Supercharger if you like, but many (most?) don't.

If you plan to hit all superchargers, rather than every other one, you likely wouldn't go 60% to "full", rather more like just up to maybe 80%, eliminating the taper.

However, if you do skip stations and charge to full each time, you always get the taper delay.
 
If Tesla wish to smooth out the model-year demand curve with ad-hoc unannounced improvements, they really should acknowledge the impact this has on customers' buying decisions. The hoo-haa over the D is superficially childish. But if it was me, and I had just taken delivery of a vehicle costing as much as my house, that I had saved for and looked forward to for years, then to find that had I waited a week or two my car would be markedly different ... yes, I'd be a tad annoyed. With an open model-year system, its quite clear at what point in the product cycle you are buying ... in this respect, the traditional way of selling cars is much more open and fair.

In my view, if pre-announced improvements or regular model-years are to be excluded by Tesla, and instead buyers must learn that unannounced model changes could happen at any time, then Tesla should put a buy-back guarantee in place. It would take the rough form of
"If Tesla release a no-cost or added cost hardware improvement within 4 months of purchase, Tesla will a) in the case of a no-cost improvement, fit the upgrade for free to your existing car, or if not suitable for retro-fitting, we will exchange your car for a new model at no cost b) in the case of a cost-option, make this available for retro-fitting at the same price as the factory option, or if not suitable for retro-fitting, we will buy back your car for 100% of the sale price on the condition that you purchase a replacement with the option fitted.

It's only by some kind of promise like this that a customer could buy with complete confidence.
 
Complete guesswork on my part, but from watching the "Tesla for Sale" section after the D announcement and other parts of this forum, I'm going to throw out these guesses:

a) Mad: some, miffed: all.

b) P85+ owners: 99%, P85 owners: 90%, S85 owners: 50%

meh. I'm stoked they announced tha D ( but I am in your 10% ). everyone here *knew it was coming potentially this year...lots of affirmations throughout the year. maybe pushed till the X release but everyone knew they were testing AWD S'. some B-girl around here said positively they had them
I say you're 'stupid' if your pissed (not meaning to call anyone personally stupid btw) with the exception to the new interior/seats and Auto pilot crap if that's your thing

will anyone be pissed when they show a 2 door AWD coupe model S?? I was shown a picture that was 'real' from a tech....just sayin. he claimed it was coming...maybe it was the 3? looked really sick w/ just the 2dr

not miffed, makes my car even more special (but I do wish I had the narrow bezel around the speedo area)
 
Except the poor schmuck at 4 mos 1 day... A few people will always feel screwed. I've been one (A battery) and despite that I'd still rather see the innovation as rapid as possible. There's no scheme that fixes it completely and keeps tesla profitable. An accommodation on trade in for another tesla seems the best to me, and would only cost tesla profit when they sell the pre owned car.
 
Next battery improvement will come ON OR BEFORE the Model 3! (2years from now)
The reason: When the 3 arrives it WILL do 200+ miles on a charge.
And to have a $35,000 Tesla doing that will make the $100,000+ S or D FAR less appealing IF it is also stuck in the 200's... Albeit 265 to 295.
Mark my words... a 400 mile battery for the "luxury" Tesla line will arrive before the 3.
 
Next battery improvement will come ON OR BEFORE the Model 3! (2years from now)
The reason: When the 3 arrives it WILL do 200+ miles on a charge.
And to have a $35,000 Tesla doing that will make the $100,000+ S or D FAR less appealing IF it is also stuck in the 200's... Albeit 265 to 295.
Mark my words... a 400 mile battery for the "luxury" Tesla line will arrive before the 3.

If you go by what Tesla says about the % batteries get better every year 350-400 miles wont be that hard with current pack size. Just need to put in the "new age" battery at some point (gigafactory?).
 
Very good question. Interesting game. I suspect that the only winning move is not to play.

Of the obvious options, none are good:
  • Pre-announce it. That will kill the sales pipeline.
  • Have a regular release cycle. That will introduce peaks and troughs to the factory, which would be a nightmare.
  • Don't innovate. Not an option.
  • Announce with zero notice. Suffer the complaints.

The only option left, imho, is to play the game by intentionally delaying shipments and/or inflating the early price, while offering (expensive) upgrades to existing customers. So, the new 110kWh pack is available at +US$20k on the 85kWh pack, and if you want it your order may be delayed 3 more months. If you want to upgrade 85kWh->110kWh, sure, but it'll be US$30k trade-in price. By the way, we've got a certified trade in program which operates with the following formula...

The problem with inflating the price, of course, is that when you later lower it then you get the same complaints - but that can be somewhat offset by paying back the difference to those who bought at the inflated price in the past N months.

How about a nice game of chess?

* time your production retooling around a new product announcement that will temporarily kill demand

step 1 figure out the schedule for possible release times and possible tool installations
step 2 announce the new product when ready with adjustments as needed to line up with a tool install
step 3 during the drop of demand use that time to retool the factory, adjust your production lines, train additional or replacement staff, anything proactive that takes advantage of a lull in demand.
step 4 when production says go, advertise the new thing a little more, add your "and one more thing", or just reduce the price a few dollars whatever it takes to get your demand back above supply (that is assuming Tesla ever gets demand below supply even with a demand killing announcement).

- - - Updated - - -

Tesla could solve this problem by creating model years for its cars. New year, new car, just like every other manufacturer.
You don't hear owners complain, "I just bought a 2013 Honda Accord and I'm really pissed because they added a new ________ to the 2014 model."

Then you didn't hang around the Prius threads when people that bought a 2008 or 2009 complained that they should have bought a 2010 (2009 was Gen II, 2010 was Gen III).

And you didn't hang around the Leaf threads when people complained about 2011 cars that didn't have the cold weather package vs 2011 cars that did vs 2012 cars where it was included in the major trim levels.

You might notice even Nissan made a change mid model year on the cold weather package. Model years or not, all car manufacturers will regroup part way through a model year if there is a big enough reason to do so.

- - - Updated - - -

If you skip one, you'll just have to spend twice as long at the next one....unless you're skipping it in order to get to an overnight charger. A mile used is a mile that needs recovery.

If you skip one early in your trip you get faster charging at the next one, the fastest travel time is achieved driving from full charge to as near to empty as you can achieve without running out of charge.

Go read up on the cross country record, they ran as close to empty as they could from supercharger to supercharger never charging more than they had to.

So no they don't have to spend twice as long, in fact they may actually spend less time at the next one but can easily choose to extend the time if needed based on the planned route. If they do extend the stay it won't be anywhere near twice as long.
 
Haven't we discussed this to death already on the other threads?

If Tesla rolls this out as a new option (like the D) then they don't need to do anything in my opinion.

If they roll it out so that the baseline changes, then they should announce changes in advance of people starting to get upgraded vehicles so that people can choose to decline delivery or change their orders. If they want to roll something into the baseline they should probably add it as an option, require people that want to modify the order to give up their deposit and pay for the option (on top of having their delivery delayed), thus giving people a disincentive to change existing orders. Once the pipeline gets flushed of old orders from before the new option, then roll it into baseline.

There really hasn't been much in the way of complaints about price drops. I don't see anyone complaining about paying for fog lights and the Tech Package and then seeing them rolled into the Tech Package. I don't see anyone complaining about the HPWC price drop. I don't see anyone complaining about the wheel price drop happening. Everyone understands that price drops will happen.

That said, I don't really see anything good coming out of this thread. I'm sure there will be plenty of people coming along to say why the above can't be done. I have no idea what can be done, but I think the above scenario would reduce customer disappointment.

Excellent post. Tesla handled the D part of the announcement just fine. What they missed and what caused most customer irritation for those getting cars around the cut-off date was making AutoPilot standard on some cars and not on others. That is the area where, in my opinion, Tesla should improve. D roll-out was fine, A roll-out was not as fine.

From the D roll-out, we also get one suggestion to the 110 kW battery concept and any other very significant option changes - pre-announce it way in advance, just like they did with AWD. Those people who really wanted an AWD Tesla, knew it was coming for sure, even before the D. Those who really wanted it, could wait. If 110 kW is in the pipeline, let people know early in advance so they can wait if it matters a lot. If you do this right, it won't Osbourne an interesting product any more than pre-announcing AWD for Model S killed any real number of Model S sales. There is a balance to be struck that minimizes Osbourning (and leaking out secrets) and maximizes customer satisfaction potential.

So, two things in my opinion:

1) When you are about to introduce something really significant, try to let people know enough about it in advance to see if they want to wait for it. Find a balance that minimizes both Osbourning and disgruntled customers. Pre-announcing AWD Tesla is a fairly successful example in my opinion. It was early and vague enough not to Osbourne Model S sales, but enough so that if you really wanted AWD, you could wait for it and many did.

2) When rolling out major new features or major standard features, do your utmost to those potentially affected by near cut-off deliveries. Offer (at least on request) info/discounts/refusal options/order change options, some extra perks or something. The customer is at their most vulnerable near the delivery, so try to make things good for these people as well as possible. Product planning may not always allow optimal solutions in the product manufacturing itself, but customer service can do a lot of things that can help.

As for applied to the 110 kW battery:

1) If 110 kW battery is coming, why not do a quick blog about the development of said battery. Say it will eventually (or probably, if you can't be sure) come to Model S and X. Those who really must have it, can wait and have the info and the option to do so. Those who don't want to wait, won't really wait because of such vague info - especially if you don't go out and blurb it will be standard or something like that. :)

2) Don't make 110 kW battery standard on some 85 kW cars and not on others on some arbitrary date. But if you must eventually make it standard, at least offer info/discounts/refusal options/order change options to buyers near the affected date. Better yet, make it a cost-option first and standard only sufficiently later, as breser suggested, so that it stings less. Those who paid for the option near making it standard, could be discounted so that those taking delivery on or after the change date will get a full discount for the option and others who paid for it previously could get some perk too for some period of time.

Time heals. Thus in my opinion offer, consider and use time as a transition tool when making product changes that might some displease customers. Of course this won't please all, but there is a balance to be struck that will please as many as possible. The customer is at their most vulnerable during their order wait and near the delivery date. Fix these and you will have fixed most, in my view. The customer with a six months old car can't be helped (except in rare cases where retrofits can be offered, always good of course when possible), but luckily you won't have to - those waiting for delivery or just getting delivery are the one's to fix. The guy with the six month car already got their great delivery experience. Besides, even that guy with a six month old car benefited from knowing generally what stuff was in the pipeline - say, he knew AWD or 110 kW was coming, but chose not to wait for it. It is easier to live with a decision made in good knowledge than without information.
 
I can't, for the life of me, image that a 110 kw battery couldn't be installed into an existing car. Doing otherwise would seem to be outright silly.

Unless it requires more room or something, and thus significant changes to the underbody (or to chargers etc.)? Retrofitting is also always more expensive than ordering from factory - especially when you have to first pay for the factory parts (e.g. 85 kW battery in this case) and then for the retrofit parts also (e.g. hypothetical 110 kW battery in this case).

But I agree that offering a retrofit option, even an expensive one, does alleviate the problems of some buyers and current owners. At least one has the option, then, perhaps to save money and get the upgrade later - to keep the car feeling fresh etc. Or never go for it, but always be happy with the knowledge that the option is there.
 
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I can't, for the life of me, image that a 110 kw battery couldn't be installed into an existing car. Doing otherwise would seem to be outright silly.

Yes, but understanding that there might be additional parts that also require upgrading to make them compatible with the larger capacity battery, and assuming some of the points made by @AnxietyRanger regarding form factor. As a result the upgrade cost would be significantly more than the hypothetical $10k bump from an 85kwh to a 110kwh pack during manufacturing, even with a core refund for the existing pack. Is anyone willing to pay $25k for the upgrade (WAG) or $1,000 per kWh? Perhaps when my range had degraded so much that I'd consider a new battery any way ...
 
Unless it requires more room or something, and thus significant changes to the underbody (or to chargers etc.)? Retrofitting is also always more expensive than ordering from factory - especially when you have to first pay for the factory parts (e.g. 85 kW battery in this case) and then for the retrofit parts also (e.g. hypothetical 110 kW battery in this case).

But I agree that offering a retrofit option, even an expensive one, does alleviate the problems of some buyers and current owners. At least one has the option, then, perhaps to save money and get the upgrade later - to keep the car feeling fresh etc. Or never go for it, but always be happy with the knowledge that the option is there.

Sure... if it were physically larger. But if it were essentially the same pack, based on higher capacity cells with the same overall geometry, then it shouldn't require any modifications. It wouldn't be any different than a battery swap - which is 5 minutes or less.
 
Fitting the 110kWh pack to the car should not require any hardware changes to the car itself. (if software changes are needed... hopefully you agree they can be installed)

The battery packs have computers built into them... a.k.a. BMS. They simply report how much charge there is, and the car does range calculations etc. for reporting how far you can drive.