What will happen within the next 6 1/2 weeks?

[Dr. J]

Tesla's volatility is off the charts

While Tesla's implied volatility is quite high relative to the S&P 500....

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) - Implied Volatility (Mean) (30-Day)
"Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) had 30-Day Implied Volatility (Mean) of 0.4738 for 2019-12-27."
vs.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) - Implied Volatility (Mean) (30-Day)
"SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) had 30-Day Implied Volatility (Mean) of 0.1027 for 2019-12-27."

Defined: "Implied Volatility (Mean): The forecasted future volatility of the security over the selected time frame, derived from the average of the put and call implied volatilities for options with the relevant expiration date."

....Its 5-year beta is surprisingly low:

The Complete Toolbox for Investors | finbox.com

• Tesla's beta (5 year) is 0.58.
• The median company in the Consumer Discretionary sector has beta (5 year) of 0.64. Tesla's beta (5 year) is 9% less than the sector median for the most recent period.

Defined: "A ratio that measures the risk or volatility of a company's share price in comparison to the market as a whole. A beta of 1.0 means that that the company rises and falls in direct relationship to the movement of the benchmark index. A beta that is less than 1 indicates a stock that is less volatile than the overall market and a beta greater than 1 indicates that the stock is more volatile."

Maybe the difference is due to one being a forecast of the future (through options) and the other being the historical price record. Anyway, volatility while the stock price is rising is pretty easy to take. YMMV.

 

[EVNow]

The market knows that the FSD stuff is BS and has factored that into the price I guess.
However, isn't he sort of liable when he's talking like this in an investor meeting specifically concerning autonomous driving?

That is the reason for announcement where they say "forward looking statement blah blah blah …"

Forward-looking statement - Wikipedia

 

[daniel]

... I want "eyes-off" self-driving....

Yep. Me too. And if they release that while I'm still ambulatory I'll trade up my car to get it.

... Yet the same people will turn around and call all other CEOs and companies liars. ...

Really? I admit I only follow a very few threads, but I haven't noticed that. I certainly have not called all other CEOs and companies liars! I usually reserve that for politicians. As a matter of fact, I am hard-pressed to think of a single CEO who I've called a liar. I've called some companies evil. E.g., Facebook. But I've never even called Zuckerberg a liar. Just a horrible person.

 

[SouthSeas]

The assumption in this argument is that when Elon said 3x better he meant 3 times more processing power. One could instead assume he literally meant three times better, and therefore all features are 3 times better and or there are 3 times as many features.

Yeah, it's not like Musk is a technical sort of guy. I expect he doesn't even know what transistor is.

 

[run-the-joules]

*looks at first post, looks at today's date, laughs*


6 months after this post they finally gave us the stop lights and signs feature. Over a year later, still months and months at best before normal people get "automatic driving on city streets"

 

[Alset Srotom]

The only thing we've gotten since OP is a $3k price increase for no logical reason.

 

[Watts_Up]

What will happen within the next 6 1/2 weeks?

... I will look at my phone, every 5 minutes or so, to check for the coming FSD V11 version download !!!
​

And when I will get it installed, I might never used it...
as I am so scare already when the current FSD don't hesitate to pass on a narrow lane between cars and buses !!!

 

[dckiwi]

*looks at first post, looks at today's date, laughs*


6 months after this post they finally gave us the stop lights and signs feature. Over a year later, still months and months at best before normal people get "automatic driving on city streets"

Sigh, very true. But hey, give us some credit, the answer with the most votes was:

“None - on Jan 1 'later this year' will simply become end of 2020!“

 

[daniel]

... I will look at my phone, every 5 minutes or so, to check for the coming FSD V11 version download !!!
​

And when I will get it installed, I might never used it...
as I am so scare already when the current FSD don't hesitate to pass on a narrow lane between cars and buses !!!

That's why it's still Level 2. I would be ecstatic if it came out and was Level 3. I'd probably trade in my Model 3 for a new one just so as not to have to wait for my hardware to be upgraded. But I don't think Level 3 is coming any time soon. At Level 2 I have no interest in autosteer in the city. In the past I've used it cautiously on city streets, but now I only use it on the highway, where it's the bee's knees.

 

[drtimhill]

That's why it's still Level 2. I would be ecstatic if it came out and was Level 3. I'd probably trade in my Model 3 for a new one just so as not to have to wait for my hardware to be upgraded. But I don't think Level 3 is coming any time soon. At Level 2 I have no interest in autosteer in the city. In the past I've used it cautiously on city streets, but now I only use it on the highway, where it's the bee's knees.

But current AP is not designed or intended for city streets, except the very limited traffic signal preview (which is best treated as a toy).

 

[DrDabbles]

My favorite thing to do in these forgotten threads is to see how people responded to skepticism with such ferocious faith, and anger that anybody would dare question Elon and his timelines. It's especially fun when you see those people go from faithful follower at any cost to realist over the course of a single year.

Edit:

I totally forgot there were people waiting for hardware upgrades still. That was another fun thread someone should dig up! I think somebody might even owe me money.

 

[run-the-joules]

My favorite thing to do in these forgotten threads is to see how people responded to skepticism with such ferocious faith, and anger that anybody would dare question Elon and his timelines. It's especially fun when you see those people go from faithful follower at any cost to realist over the course of a single year.

Edit:

I totally forgot there were people waiting for hardware upgrades still. That was another fun thread someone should dig up! I think somebody might even owe me money.

Yeah I didn't realize people didn't get the upgrades yet either. Yikes.

 

[daniel]

But current AP is not designed or intended for city streets, except the very limited traffic signal preview (which is best treated as a toy).

I no longer have the current AP. My EAP is not designed for city streets at all. You can engage it on city streets and I've used it there. In my old residential neighborhood in Spokane it worked fine, though you had to disengage at every stop sign. Here in Kihei, the city streets are more problematic.

I think I would find it more bothersome to have to confirm every stoplight than it is now simply tapping on the brake pedal to disengage and stop the car myself. When it can reliably navigate city streets at level 3, that's when I'll trade up to get the new hardware and pay for the feature. But I give it a 50-50 chance of that happening in what remains of my life.

Does Tesla's current "FSD" navigate on AP on city streets yet? I.e., does it make turns by itself? Or does it just recognize stop signs and stoplights for straight-on driving?

 

[drtimhill]

I no longer have the current AP. My EAP is not designed for city streets at all. You can engage it on city streets and I've used it there. In my old residential neighborhood in Spokane it worked fine, though you had to disengage at every stop sign. Here in Kihei, the city streets are more problematic.

I think I would find it more bothersome to have to confirm every stoplight than it is now simply tapping on the brake pedal to disengage and stop the car myself. When it can reliably navigate city streets at level 3, that's when I'll trade up to get the new hardware and pay for the feature. But I give it a 50-50 chance of that happening in what remains of my life.

Does Tesla's current "FSD" navigate on AP on city streets yet? I.e., does it make turns by itself? Or does it just recognize stop signs and stoplights for straight-on driving?

The beta FSD is driving around city streets including handling intersections, pedestrians, parked cars etc. this includes making turns to reach a destination in the nav system. Its a closed beta at present but you can watch it in action on YouTube (search on Tesla FSD beta)

 

[daniel]

The beta FSD is driving around city streets including handling intersections, pedestrians, parked cars etc. this includes making turns to reach a destination in the nav system. Its a closed beta at present but you can watch it in action on YouTube (search on Tesla FSD beta)

Thank you. So it's not generally available to the public but is in operational testing. That's good to know

Question: Is the driver required to be alert at all times and take over without prompting by the car? Or in other words, is it still Level 2? Also, are the beta testers spread all around in different kinds of places, or just a few select areas? Thanks.

Level 3 is where it would be worth it to me to trade up from EAP.

 

[DanCar]

Question: Is the driver required to be alert at all times and take over without prompting by the car?

yes

Or in other words, is it still Level 2?

Seems odd to call it level 2. In some ways it is worse than level 2, can do the wrong thing at the worst time. In some ways it is better.

Also, are the beta testers spread all around in different kinds of places, or just a few select areas?

About 50 testers and a few more are added over time, such as each weak. Just United States. Elon said that everyone in the Early Access Program (EAP) will probably get it after a few more revisions.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1342909163903455233

Level 3 is where it would be worth it to me to trade up from EAP.

Yes many people share that sentiment, but many are eager to play the level 2 video game. I'm very tempted, but a bad idea, since I'm prone to attention lapses. My body loves moving to a lower power state when it deems it isn't doing anything important.

 

[Mardak]

are the beta testers spread all around in different kinds of places, or just a few select areas?

Here's a map from end of December:

https://twitter.com/jeadly/status/1344462484007223299

So FSD beta has been driving around in about half of the states including Hawaii. The videos from this channel are around Oahu: https://www.youtube.com/c/TeslaHawaiiClub

 

[Dan D.]

yes
Seems odd to call it level 2. In some ways it is worse than level 2, can do the wrong thing at the worst time. In some ways it is better.

That's still Level 2. Just poorly implemented. Or "buggy" / "feature incomplete" / "beta" if you prefer.

 

[daniel]

yes
Seems odd to call it level 2. In some ways it is worse than level 2, can do the wrong thing at the worst time. In some ways it is better.
About 50 testers and a few more are added over time, such as each weak. Just United States. Elon said that everyone in the Early Access Program (EAP) will probably get it after a few more revisions.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1342909163903455233
Yes many people share that sentiment, but many are eager to play the level 2 video game. I'm very tempted, but a bad idea, since I'm prone to attention lapses. My body loves moving to a lower power state when it deems it isn't doing anything important.

Thanks for all of that!

Using EAP on the highway (where you can anticipate much more easily than you can in the city) is much more relaxing for me than driving myself. I remain alert and most importantly, when I'm not micro-steering to keep in my lane (because the car is doing it for me) and I'm not constantly adjusting my speed for the traffic (because the car is doing that for me also) I can give more of my concentration to watching for the unexpected. IMO this makes me a safer driver. AP in the city seems like it would be very different due to the more chaotic surroundings. Thus the need (or my wish) for it to be Level 3.

I'm encouraged that Tesla has come this far. I think they have a very long way to go, but I don't see them giving up. Elon will keep making and breaking promises, and one day they'll get there.

 

[drtimhill]

Thank you. So it's not generally available to the public but is in operational testing. That's good to know

Question: Is the driver required to be alert at all times and take over without prompting by the car? Or in other words, is it still Level 2? Also, are the beta testers spread all around in different kinds of places, or just a few select areas? Thanks.

Level 3 is where it would be worth it to me to trade up from EAP.

Its L2 but overall seems impressive even for L2. The beta testers are all over the US though a lot in CA for obvious reasons. But sone in Michigan and New York sinits getting pretty broad test conditions.