What will happen within the next 6 1/2 weeks?

[DanCar]

... 4. Pothole and road debris avoidance will be very difficult using purely neural net techniques so they are exploring alternative approaches to lessen the load on the computer. ...

Elon, two years from now: Sorry guys, HW3 won't cut it for FSD. We are going to have to move to HW4.

 

[diplomat33]

Elon, two years from now: Sorry guys, HW3 won't cut it for FSD. We are going to have to move to HW4.

Probably. But we all know that computers get better over time. I am sure HW4 will be better than HW3 just as some day there will be a HW5 that is better than HW4. We will probably get some FSD with HW3 and then better FSD with HW4 and better FSD with HW5 etc...

 

[daniel]

Found this post from a Chip Stratton on the Model 3 FB page with some interesting tidbits on what Tesla is working on:

Chip Stratton
Conversation Starter · 5 hrs
I ran into a Tesla Autopilot engineer today, who provided some interesting information:
1. They are continuing to work hard on Smart Summon, and a version he has tested is performing extremely well in parking lots packed with holiday shoppers.
2. Autopilot is not as smooth on the more powerful Model 3 vehicles as on the less powerful ones and they are working on that problem.
3. Early Adopters should get city driving autopilot before year end.
4. Pothole and road debris avoidance will be very difficult using purely neural net techniques so they are exploring alternative approaches to lessen the load on the computer.
5. Reducing phantom braking is currently a very high priority.
6. Tesla gathers huge amounts of data when a vehicle is in autopilot; but little when not.

Thanks for posting this. But I wish someone who actually knows would clarify what they mean by "city driving autopilot." Will this make turns based on NAV and respond properly to traffic lights and stop signs? Or will it just be official permission to use AP in the city? (Which the car will do now though they tell you not to.) I presume it will still be Level 2: Driver is fully responsible at all times.

Elon, two years from now: Sorry guys, HW3 won't cut it for FSD. We are going to have to move to HW4.

I've been saying this since I bought my Model 3, and it's the reason I didn't pay for FSD: Not only the computer, but the sensors are not adequate for driverless operation, though they may work for city NoA with driver fully responsible. I think they may get to Level 3 (you can let your attention wander) with HW5 and additional sensors.

 

[diplomat33]

Thanks for posting this. But I wish someone who actually knows would clarify what they mean by "city driving autopilot." Will this make turns based on NAV and respond properly to traffic lights and stop signs? Or will it just be official permission to use AP in the city? (Which the car will do now though they tell you not to.) I presume it will still be Level 2: Driver is fully responsible at all times.

Short answer is that we don't know yet. And I don't think we will know until we actually get videos of "city autopilot" in action. But I think it is safe to assume that at some point, Tesla will release FSD features where the car can respond to traffic lights, make turns based on nav etc... And yes, the driver will be responsible until the software reaches the point where Tesla is confident that it is safe for the driver not to be responsible anymore.

 

[DanCar]

Probably. But we all know that computers get better over time. I am sure HW4 will be better than HW3 just as some day there will be a HW5 that is better than HW4. We will probably get some FSD with HW3 and then better FSD with HW4 and better FSD with HW5 etc...

We should stop lying to ourselves and call it what it is, change FSD to PSD. Partial self driving.
Elon said HW4 will be 3 times better than HW3.

 

[electronblue]

Elon, two years from now: Sorry guys, HW3 won't cut it for FSD. We are going to have to move to HW4.

Probably. But we all know that computers get better over time. I am sure HW4 will be better than HW3 just as some day there will be a HW5 that is better than HW4. We will probably get some FSD with HW3 and then better FSD with HW4 and better FSD with HW5 etc...

Can’t be. Elon said 2016 Model S/X AP2 is already Level 5 capable hardware and on Autonomy Investor Day he said HW3 is the processor upgrade needed for Level 5 no geofence feature complete by end of 2019.

If it is Level 5, it must be FSD.

Unless you are saying Elon lied?

 

[diplomat33]

Can’t be. Elon said 2016 Model S/X AP2 is already Level 5 capable hardware and on Autonomy Investor Day he said HW3 is the processor upgrade needed for Level 5 no geofence feature complete by end of 2019.

If it is Level 5, it must be FSD.

Unless you are saying Elon lied?

I am not having that discussion AGAIN. I think we both know where the other stands on this issue.

 

[nepenthe]

Can’t be. Elon said 2016 Model S/X AP2 is already Level 5 capable hardware and on Autonomy Investor Day he said HW3 is the processor upgrade needed for Level 5 no geofence feature complete by end of 2019.

If it is Level 5, it must be FSD.

Unless you are saying Elon lied?

They’re saying, based of their extremely limited armchair maths and neural net experience, the currently under utilized HW3, will not be powerful enough, mostly because HW4 will be even more powerful. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Seriously, we’re only just seeing software divergence on HW3, literally scratching the surface, yet the hardware and sensors “obviously aren’t capable enough”? It’s like saying, my horoscope today says we need Lidar and my crystal ball has confirmed that.

 

[DanCar]

... Unless you are saying Elon lied?

Most successful entrepreneurs overly simplistic beliefs about how easy things can be accomplished. When they look back on accomplishments they also indicate they never would have started really knowing how complicated it is.
Elon is way ahead of the driverless game in my opinion. I'm grateful for that. Yes he is way overly optimistic. Some would choose to call him a liar, I will choose to say thanks.

 

[DrDabbles]

Found this post from a Chip Stratton on the Model 3 FB page with some interesting tidbits on what Tesla is working on:

Chip Stratton
Conversation Starter · 5 hrs
I ran into a Tesla Autopilot engineer today, who provided some interesting information:
1. They are continuing to work hard on Smart Summon, and a version he has tested is performing extremely well in parking lots packed with holiday shoppers.
2. Autopilot is not as smooth on the more powerful Model 3 vehicles as on the less powerful ones and they are working on that problem.
3. Early Adopters should get city driving autopilot before year end.
4. Pothole and road debris avoidance will be very difficult using purely neural net techniques so they are exploring alternative approaches to lessen the load on the computer.
5. Reducing phantom braking is currently a very high priority.
6. Tesla gathers huge amounts of data when a vehicle is in autopilot; but little when not.

5. This needs to be the top priority. Phantom braking is a problem on highways, it's straight up dangerous on surface streets.
6. I think we've seen evidence that the software is not gathering huge amounts of data, but rather than Tesla can begin a campaign to collect data, which they don't seem to be doing constantly.
4. It seems to me, in my unprofessional, armchair opinion, that objects with volume will need to be detected and considered not driveable space. For pot holes, the inverse would need to be true, which I presume would be much harder. All of this becomes problematic in the real world and at speed. Likely the best way to handle potholes will be to pass them multiple times, perhaps detect hitting them, and then sending that data to the fleet as a semi-permanent obstacle.
3. I've seen tweets saying something similar, but so far none of the normal characters are revealing anything. So. If this exists, then it's only being tested by employees right now. I think we saw evidence of that during the FSD fire sale when Elon invited employees to receive a discount and hardware if they purchased FSD option. I'm still skeptical, and I'm wary of any feature that's released given the performance we're still seeing with systems like smart summon.
1. We're still waiting for the "smooth as butter" update that was supposed to be out months ago now. This is a hard problem. They need to stop making promises, take their time, and release features as they're ready. Stop rushing, stop burning staff out, let's get this right not right now.
2. My last update made AP less smooth on my HW2.5 than it appears to be for people with HW2. This statement seems to be backwards, unless Tesla sees something in the data coming from the AP computer, and they're applying fixes to the control commands. If they're choosing to do that, BTW, then I want them to roll back on their "we don't tune controls manually" and add a hysteresis to TACC as well as knocking off the damn swerving.

 

[nepenthe]

5. This needs to be the top priority. Phantom braking is a problem on highways, it's straight up dangerous on surface streets.
6. I think we've seen evidence that the software is not gathering huge amounts of data, but rather than Tesla can begin a campaign to collect data, which they don't seem to be doing constantly.

N=1 here, but I definitely see my car uploading large amounts of data periodically. Looking back over just this December so far, I see one day where 3.46GB was uploaded and another day a week later where 1.76GB was uploaded.

 

[electronblue]

Can’t be. Elon said 2016 Model S/X AP2 is already Level 5 capable hardware and on Autonomy Investor Day he said HW3 is the processor upgrade needed for Level 5 no geofence feature complete by end of 2019.

If it is Level 5, it must be FSD.

Unless you are saying Elon lied?

I am not having that discussion AGAIN. I think we both know where the other stands on this issue.

I was making a point for the benefit of the readers. I did not expect a response from you necessarily.

Many Tesla newcomers gloss over this history either due to ignorance or due to it being an inconvenient reality that is easier ignored than explained or woven into whatever is the current pro-Tesla narrative.

Therefore it is useful to remind readers why many old-timers with AP2 feel like Tesla failed to deliver what they sold us and we’d rather they stick to delivering what they promised than some bait and switch. There are good reasons why we feel that way.

Tesla announced FSD differentiating features by summer 2017 (not delivered), they announced AP2 as Level 5 capable hardware in 2016 and coast to coast drive for AP2 in 2017 (did not happen), they announced we would summon cars from Los Angeles to New York and sleep in our cars, in 2019 they again announced Level 5 no geofence feature complete by end of 2019.

They can’t suddenly go back and say ”well, FSD requires HW4” (unless that is something they retrofit us)... they must deliver for AP2 sleeping from Los Angeles to New York, while your car drives, really. Either that or this was the biggest hoax in automotive history.

 

[electronblue]

Most successful entrepreneurs overly simplistic beliefs about how easy things can be accomplished. When they look back on accomplishments they also indicate they never would have started really knowing how complicated it is.
Elon is way ahead of the driverless game in my opinion. I'm grateful for that. Yes he is way overly optimistic. Some would choose to call him a liar, I will choose to say thanks.

It would be one thing if it was merely to seek investment. This was a consumer product sold.

 

[diplomat33]

They can’t suddenly go back and say ”well, FSD requires HW4” (unless that is something they retrofit us)... they must deliver for AP2 sleeping from Los Angeles to New York, while your car drives, really. Either that or this was the biggest hoax in automotive history.

And maybe Tesla will upgrade all AP2 cars to AP3 and deliver "sleep in your car while it self-drives" FSD in which case everybody goes home happy and it was not a hoax. The fact is that we don't even know yet if Tesla will need AP4 to achieve true FSD since we are still in the early stages of AP3 functionality.

 

[DrDabbles]

N=1 here, but I definitely see my car uploading large amounts of data periodically. Looking back over just this December so far, I see one day where 3.46GB was uploaded and another day a week later where 1.76GB was uploaded.

Now lets average that out over 7 days and it's ~500MB, then ~250MB per day. That's not approaching what I'd call massive. Even if there were 400k cars, that's only ~195TB of data per day?

 

[nepenthe]

Now lets average that out over 7 days and it's ~500MB, then ~250MB per day. That's not approaching what I'd call massive. Even if there were 400k cars, that's only ~195TB of data per day?

Done logically, which is probably a safe assumption, would mean there's a high probability the data is being sampled only when it is relevant to a pending or higher priority challenge to solve. Like coming across the infrequent animals native to my locale. Or that one spot where AP always disengages, etc..
Regardless, I would certainly call even 10-50TB of data per day as massive...

 

[DanCar]

... They can’t suddenly go back and say ”well, FSD requires HW4” (unless that is something they retrofit us)... they must deliver for AP2 sleeping from Los Angeles to New York, while your car drives, really. Either that or this was the biggest hoax in automotive history.

Yes, they can say PSD requires HW4, and they will, and they will retrofit. Who knows when the nightmare they created will end. Might end with a pay out rather then delivering the dream.

 

[daniel]

... But I think it is safe to assume that at some point, Tesla will release FSD features where the car can respond to traffic lights, make turns based on nav etc...

We agree on this. I think we differ on when we expect it to happen.

Can’t be. Elon said 2016 Model S/X AP2 is already Level 5 capable hardware and on Autonomy Investor Day he said HW3 is the processor upgrade needed for Level 5 no geofence feature complete by end of 2019.

If it is Level 5, it must be FSD.

Unless you are saying Elon lied?

It's not really a lie if the person speaking believes it. Then it's just a mistake. But of course, if you fail to meet a contractual obligation, then you owe compensation.

Here's the thing about Elon Musk, and I've said this before: He is a dreamer and an extreme optimist. He believes pretty much anything is possible. And we are better off for it: If Musk were not such an optimist we wouldn't have Tesla Motors. We wouldn't be driving these fabulous cars. We'd still be driving filthy stinkers. And if we wanted battery back-up for our homes, we'd have to jury-rig a ton of car batteries in our basement. Musk's optimism is the reason I'm driving an electric car that does zero to sixty in somewhere around five seconds, and drives itself (with my constant supervision) on the highway and some city streets. Musk's optimism is the reason that pretty soon America will finally be able to transport astronauts to and from the ISS and not have to rely on Russia for transport. Musk's optimism is something to be grateful for.

But the board should stop him from making promises that his engineers and programmers cannot keep.

 

[electronblue]

Yes, they can say PSD requires HW4, and they will, and they will retrofit. Who knows when the nightmare they created will end. Might end with a pay out rather then delivering the dream.

If they retrofit it, that is of course one thing, and that would be a mitigating factor.

But Elon is on record as announcing Level 5 no geofence feature complete for HW3 by end of this year and robotaxis next year on HW3. That must mean the hardware can do FSD.

Unless he was not truthful of course.

 

[diplomat33]

If they retrofit it, that is of course one thing, and that would be a mitigating factor.

But Elon is on record as announcing Level 5 no geofence feature complete for HW3 by end of this year and robotaxis next year on HW3. That must mean the hardware can do FSD.

Unless he was not truthful of course.

You are still thinking in such extreme binary terms, either the hardware delivers L5 or the whole thing was a hoax and a lie. No middle ground.