What Will My 2014 Model S Be Worth in 2 Years?

[USARocks]

I'm in the process of purchasing a used 2014 Model S from an auto dealer.

Specs are:
2014 Model S 60 -- build date June, 2014 -- $69,900
16,000 miles
60 kWh battery - included
Special paint color -- $750
Panoramic roof -- $2,500
19" wheels -- included
Leather seats -- $1,500
Parking Sensors -- $500
Obeche Wood Matte Decor Accents -- $650
Tech Package -- $3,750
Standard Suspension -- Included
Supercharging -- $2,000
Black Brake Calipers -- Included
Single Charger -- Included
Destination/Doc Fees -- $1,170
TOTAL ORIGINAL MSRP -- 82,720
(before you ask -- no autopilot as it is too early)

The car still has 26 months and 34,000 miles on the original bumper to bumper warranty
plus the longer battery/drive train warranty.

I am purchasing the car for $59,000 which I feel is a fairly good price as the car is in excellent
condition.

My wife has already found someone who says they will give us $64,000 for the car. Tempting
to make $5,000.

I'm trying to figure out approximately what we might be able to sell the car for if we keep it
for about two years? I realize that's a hard question to answer as there are tons of variables.
But I'm hoping some of you who are experts when it comes to Tesla history and pricing might
be able to share your thoughts. My guess is that we will drive it 12-14,000 miles a year, so
in April of 2018, it might have a total mileage of 44,000 miles.

We are planning to purchase two model 3's and I was one of the first ten who put down a deposit
in Las Vegas, so I'm hoping we will be in the first 3 months or so once they start shipping them
in (hopefully) early 2018. I've been told by several Tesla people that our name will move up the
priority list for the Model 3 by owning a Model S, even if it is used.

I only wish there was a way to still purchase the additional 4 year/50k extended warranty, in
which case we'd probably keep the car longer.

I'm curious what readers on the forum think of the price we paid for the car, and thoughts
on what your crystal ball says we should be able to sell the car in about two years.

Thanks very much!!

 

[tonglaji]

someone who says they will give us $64,000 for the car

This someone must be out of his mind. I would take a base S70 any day over this car for about the same price. And I will have auto pilot plus a bigger battery.

And I think you are paying too much, too. But that depends on how much you value the options like glass roof, etc.

 

[CHG-ON]

Seems like a good price today and it's a good build time. The battery will hurt resale big time in two years. I bet that by then, their smallest battery will a 90 at the very least. And it doesn't have autopilot. That could be a killer right there.

It's really hard because Tesla has changed the car resale paradigm. I fear that their cars will depreciate in the future more like tech products do because they are making so many revisions so quickly that the cars are obsolete almost immediately, like tech products. Yes, they still have value. But it is awfully hard to calculate it, compared to fossil cars, which many essentially are the same model for 2-3-4 years, aside from some minor tweaks. One thing that could help resale is that they are so easily upgraded over the air. I was amazingly lucky in that I just happened to get autopilot because they added into the production stream. I literally made it by 3 days! I'd be really bummed now if I didn't have it. It is truly amazing. Truly.

Your buying used, at what looks on the surface to be a good price, will help you a lot. But honestly, expect that car to be yesterday's news in two years. It is partially there now because of no AP. However, make sure to consider the huge savings in gas that you will have. Even at your 12-14K/yr, it will add up. It costs me approx 4.50 to drive 250mi if if I have to pay for all my charging at home, which I usually do. But my road trips are free when using superchargers. It used to cost me 40-65, depending upon gas prices. Yes, they are low now. They will go up.

If I were to buy a used one now, I would get pretty much everything you have but with an 85 pack and AP. I think the range and the AP are huge differentiators compared to what you are looking at. How much are they worth. Please see above!

Good luck!

 

[Edmond]

The lack of dual motor is at least as important as the pack.

 

[SageBrush]

I am not a Model 'S' expert so take with a grain of salt ..

60 kWh pack sounds like ~ base model two years ago. Then features added.

In two years some of the features will be included in the base, the starting pack size will likely be larger, and in general the base model will be cheaper. Your 4 year old car will be compared to a new car price and then (my WAG) ~ 60% taken off.

 

[daxz]

My guess of year 4 value is $42K to $36K.
$42K = (0.86^year) * basePrice +(0.7^year) * optionsPrice

basePrice = $71,100, Options = $11,620
Year(2) ~= $58,280
.86 = 14% depreciation per year - this makes it work what you are willing to pay now
.7 = 30% depreciation on options -- as other have stated without newest tech options it may be as high as 50% depreciation

But these all these numbers above don't take into account the federal tax credit someone took. BasePrice = $71,100 - $7,500
it should be:
Year(2) ~= 56,400 -- price it should be now (with lower mileage 59K is not out of line)
Year(4) ~= 39,400

With a 50% options depreciation rate and tax credit it should be:
Year(2) = $52K + some for lower mileage
Year(4) = $36K

Depreciation Infographic: How Fast Does My New Car Lose Value?

 

[RogerHScott]

The good news for Model S owners (who, for whatever inscrutable reason, might consider selling their cars while
they're still running ) is that the supply of Model 3s, relative to demand, will be so scarce for so long that the
existence of Model 3 is unlikely to depress used Model S prices for quite some time. No one who decides they'd
like to own a Tesla in 2018 or even 2019 will be able to go out and buy a Model 3 (for near-term delivery), so if they
want a sub-$50k Tesla their only choice will be a used Model S -- if they can even find one of those!

 

[sorka]

Seems like a good price today and it's a good build time.

Geez, and in the other thread today from the guys selling hist prestine 2014 P85 with 37K miles on it is being told by everyone it's only worth $55K.

Honestly $60K is WAY too much for any used S60. A brand new 2016 S70 (rwd) can be bought in California for $61.5K after the tax incentives and rebates. Adding the pano roof and premium package (equivalent to the tech pacakge before auto pilot) and it's only $66K.....and you still get crash avoidance and parking sensors.

For less than $10K more you can have a brand new faster version with more range and more bells and whistles. It's a no brainer.

 

[Electroman]

That price is a bit too high for a 60

 

[davidc18]

Think you are crazy for paying that much. Get an inventory 70 instead.

 

[csshih]

I am purchasing the car for $59,000 which I feel is a fairly good price as the car is in excellent
condition.

Oh absolutely not. That's insane.

I'll provide you two real life quotes.

First one: Sept 2014 Model S60 with AP, 13K miles, Tesla resale price 55.4K (INCLUDING EXTENDED WARRANTY)
Model S $69,900
Grey Metallic Paint $750
Obeche Wood Gloss Décor $650
Tech Package $3,750
Parking Sensors $500
Tan Nappa Leather Seats $1,500
Destination and regulatory documentation fee $1,170
Total $78,220

19% but with 4 years of extended warranty through Tesla.

Second one: Sept 2014 Model S85 with AP, 23K Miles, 70K through private party
Model S $69,900
85 kWh Battery $10,000
Blue Paint $750
All Glass Panoramic Roof $2,500
Premium Interior Lighting $1,000
Grey Performance Leather Seats $2,500
Parking Sensors $500
Fog Lamps $500
21" Silver Wheels $4,500
Obeche Wood Matt Decor Accents $650
Tech Package $3,750
Ultra High Fidelity Sound Package $2,500
Smart Air Suspension $2,250
Rear Facing Seats $2,500
Parcel Shelf INCLUDED
Supercharging INCLUDED
Black Brake Calipers INCLUDED
Twin Chargers $1,500
Yacht Floor $500
Subzero Weather Package $750
Destination and Regulatory Doc Fee $1,170
Total $107,720

Approx price reduction after 10K rebates.. 29%

My wife has already found someone who says they will give us $64,000 for the car. Tempting
to make $5,000.

Truly make sure they will actually pay that much. I don't think they know what they're buying. Perhaps they're expecting a P90DL for that price.

59,000/(82,720-7,500) = 0.784..so roughly a 22% discount (because you don't get a 2.5K rebate through the state).
The problem is:
Not getting AP, which in terms of resale is worth about $5,000-10,000, IMHO, from when I was obsessively following Model Ss on the resale market. Tesla doesn't have formal model years, but yours not having AP basically puts it into the 2012-2014 category.

Resale in 2 years is going to royally suck, especially with the model 3 potentially coming out.. it will be a cheaper and more technologically advanced car.

Not getting the whole 4 year warranty (the huge discount on the 70K car basically reflects that)


I personally would not pay over $50K for that vehicle. YMMV. Opinions are just that

 

[tonglaji]

the guys selling hist prestine 2014 P85 with 37K miles

That was a 2012 model, and the warranty is almost gone.

 

[JPUConn]

Walk from this car. It is a bad deal.

Call Moe at Tesla hq and ask him what's sitting on the lot waiting for CPO to come online and you will be happy you waited.

 

[sorka]

That was a 2012 model, and the warranty is almost gone.

That may be, but I'd still pay more for the 2012 P85 with 4 years left on it's infinite mile drive unit and battery warranty, than a a 2014 S60 with 6 years on 88K miles warranty. 0-60 of 5.9 vs 0-60 of 4.0 and a lot more range. Also a no brainer.

 

[MDMGSO47]

I am interested in seeing what happens to value of the first Model S when they near their battery warranty expiration

 

[sorka]

I am interested in seeing what happens to value of the first Model S when they near their battery warranty expiration

That will of course depend on the failure rate of the crop of DU that's in that particular car and how far down in cost new batteries have come.

Hopefully Tesla will have replacements in 6 years from cells made in the GF made at scale that will bring the $22K current pack price down to less than $10K.

 

[zer0cool]

Shitty deal. Go buy a 2013 85 in the 50's, much better than any 60.

 

[TaoJones]

What's a 3-year old Model S worth? About 48% according to the Guaranteed Resale Value calculation, less any mileage hit. Add as much as 7% if sold privately.

Call it half. This doesn't have to be hard.

 

[Zaphod]

Not to burst your bubble, but I agree with the consensus of others and you already paid too much. I think if you can honestly sell it for 64K, do it now. I think fair value on that car is mid to low 50s right now. After 2 years probably looking at mid to low 30s. But really all depends on how reliability and out of warranty costs pan out over time.

 

[valkeriefire]

I agree with the other comments. $59k is way too much for 60kw. Low 50s is more likely. The mileage on it isn't low either. I've been shopping a lot for Teslas and you can get a nice 85kw one for high 50s if you look around.