What will separate S from 3?

[AC238]

Oh I definitely think Tesla will build a smaller non-Roadster vehicle than the Model 3 in the next decade. They pretty much have to. The coupe/2-door hatchback market is sizable.

The batteries need to be cheaper/higher power density though to hit that pricepoint , which is why currently I don't believe it is feasible economically

Not sure about the US but the european crash ratings takes the size of the car into consideration, lots of small cars have 5 star ratings. And the Golf GTI have a overall 5 star rating in the US.

And the crumple zone is the main advantage when for electric cars so i think it would be easy to make a 5 star subcompact electric car.

Golf GTI has a top safety rating, this is true Vehicle details , Official VW Golf 2012 safety rating results

 

[landis]

The batteries need to be cheaper/higher power density though to hit that pricepoint , which is why currently I don't believe it is feasible economically

A decade is a long time during this disruption.
I would expect gen 4 progress once gen 3 ramp is well in hand by 2020, or in less than five years.

 

[alseTrick]

-I hadn't really thought of this until now but many were surprised the Model 3 was a sedan and not a liftback like the Model S. One wonders if this wasn't done to help protect Model S sales.
For many the sedan style smaller trunk opening of the Model 3 is the reason to either purchase the Model S or wait until the lift back is announced. Certainly a smart move on Tesla's part even though my preference is a lift back.

No. That's not why.

 

[Colsla]

No. That's not why.

Exactly. Elon explained that the reason was for visibility and headroom. Which people who took test rides said model 3 has good headroom for people as tall as 6'4" or so

 

[Laban]

Exactly. Elon explained that the reason was for visibility and headroom. Which people who took test rides said model 3 has good headroom for people as tall as 6'4" or so

True, and one of the major complaints about the Model S is the headroom in the back. So i think they made a wise decision.

And it might also be a good idea to look at the competition that aren't liftbacks:

Toyota Corolla - best selling car in the world
Volkswagen Jetta - best selling car from VW
BMW 3 sedan
Audi A4 sedan
Volvo S90 - same size/length as Model S

So there's absolutely no reason for Tesla to make the Model 3 a liftback as far as the competition goes.

 

[wdolson]

True, and one of the major complaints about the Model S is the headroom in the back. So i think they made a wise decision.

And it might also be a good idea to look at the competition that aren't liftbacks:

Toyota Corolla - best selling car in the world
Volkswagen Jetta - best selling car from VW
BMW 3 sedan
Audi A4 sedan
Volvo S90 - same size/length as Model S

So there's absolutely no reason for Tesla to make the Model 3 a liftback as far as the competition goes.

I believe Elon explained that for cost of production, it was cheaper to have a fixed back window and not make a fastback like the Model S.

To have a good coefficient of drag, the back window needs to be aggressively sloped. Any time you have a vertical or near vertical surface it will create drag behind it. Mirrors create a lot of drag too, which is why a number of car makers are pushing to replace them with cameras, but the vehicle codes in most places clearly specify mirrors rather than just be able to see behind the car.

The reason a flat surface creates drag is it creates a partial vacuum behind it that then generates a force pushing in the opposite direction of travel. This partial vacuum is why drafting behind trucks can improve range so much. The air is thinner there so less air resistance. It's not good for the truck's fuel economy though.

 

[Laban]

I believe Elon explained that for cost of production, it was cheaper to have a fixed back window and not make a fastback like the Model S.

Tesla also needs to keep the warranty costs down because of the much larger volumes/lower margins of the Model 3. And the easier to produce solution is probably less prone to errors/problems, like f.e:

water in trunk?

 

[malcolm]

I'm as guilty as anyone of making the mistake of thinking that this is all about S vs 3 when it's really 3 vs Audi; 3 vs Mercedes; 3 vs BMW etc.

What will separate S from 3? About $30,000. For the vast majority of people, that's all that will matter.

I'm starting to realise that S vs 3 is a bit like Team Edward vs Team Jacob

 

[JeffK]

I'm starting to realise that S vs 3 is a bit like Team Edward vs Team Jacob

Edward, obviously...

Those two are very different though. I think this is more akin to the development over time of the Iron Man suit. It gets smaller, better, and more efficient (also has a HUD).

 

[electracity]

True, and one of the major complaints about the Model S is the headroom in the back. So i think they made a wise decision.

And it might also be a good idea to look at the competition that aren't liftbacks:

Toyota Corolla - best selling car in the world
Volkswagen Jetta - best selling car from VW
BMW 3 sedan
Audi A4 sedan
Volvo S90 - same size/length as Model S

So there's absolutely no reason for Tesla to make the Model 3 a liftback as far as the competition goes.

That's a bit deceptive, because the liftback market went to SUV. Many people would choose a $38K liftback model 3 over the current car.

Most buyers want flexibility behind the front seats more than headroom for cowboys wearing cowboy hats. Although perhaps Musk is focusing on the balding cowboy market segment.

 

[jerry33]

Most buyers want flexibility behind the front seats more than headroom for cowboys wearing cowboy hats. Although perhaps Musk is focusing on the balding cowboy market segment.

The balding segment is the segment most likely to wear hats

 

[Laban]

That's a bit deceptive, because the liftback market went to SUV. Many people would choose a $38K liftback model 3 over the current car.

True, but that's there the Y comes in.

Most buyers want flexibility behind the front seats more than headroom for cowboys wearing cowboy hats.

And you base that on ?

There was a poll in the swedish tesla forum (teslaclubsweden.se) and 55% preferred the sedan with more headroom, 13% wanted a liftback and 32% wanted a station wagon. Station wagons are popular in Sweden But the total is close to a 50/50 split which matches what Tesla is expecting for the S/X.

 

[electracity]

There was a poll in the swedish tesla forum (teslaclubsweden.se) and 55% preferred the sedan with more headroom, 13% wanted a liftback and 32% wanted a station wagon. Station wagons are popular in Sweden But the total is close to a 50/50 split which matches what Tesla is expecting for the S/X.

For your poll to be meaningful you would need to quantify "more headroom". There were more design choices than taking the current shape and making it a lift back. How about this poll question: "Would you prefer a liftback with rear headroom for a 6'2" person?"

My displeasure with Tesla making too many design choices centered on trying to grow business in China. The model X devolved from an SUV into a Chinese town car.

 

[eisbock]

I've previously stated my hypothesis that even if the 3 could outperform the S, they'd software limit the performance to prevent the Osborne effect from the higher end models, with a higher profit margin.

That's not what the Osborne Effect is. That comes from an announcement of a future product so amazing that it stops sales of the current product while people wait for the new product. You're thinking of cannibalization.

The 3 is so radically-designed and almost no information has been revealed in an attempt to limit the Osborne Effect, and it seems to be working. Once the 3 hits production, we'll see if cannibalization is a concern. It might not even matter at that point if Tesla maintains reasonable profit margins and sells a lot of cars.

 

[JeffK]

we'll see if cannibalization is a concern

I highly doubt they will be too concerned with cannibalizing sales from a 50,000 unit per year model with a much higher volume model which targets a much wider audience. An audience that will be even more likely to choose premium options with high margins because they're more likely to have the cash.

One step backwards, eight steps forward you still come out ahead even with lower margins. For seating more than five you still have no other options besides the S and X at the moment as far as performance EVs are concerned.

I believe cannibalization will be a non-issue for Tesla and not something to be worried about by Tesla or investors.

 

[electracity]

Both the model 3 and the model X are obviously designed for car service (Uber/black car). This strategy allows Tesla to commit absolutely to significant production volumes without worrying about quaterly sales.

Being certain of building 1000 MX a week indefinitely makes production planning easy. While the MX gets really pricey imported to China, there is substantial demand for smaller cars with drivers. BMW even makes a China only 3 series with an extended frame for more rear leg room for the owner in the back seat.

Hopefully someday Tesla will make cars for westerners with dogs.

 

[kort677]

Both the model 3

I have trouble buying into this view based on the few hundred thousand deposits taken in. I think that while some of those cars could be destined for livery service the majority of orders are from people who want the tesla "experience" with out the high price tag of a model s or x

 

[electracity]

I have trouble buying into this view based on the few hundred thousand deposits taken in. I think that while some of those cars could be destined for livery service the majority of orders are from people who want the tesla "experience" with out the high price tag of a model s or x

My post was about the design choice of the model 3. They did not know the deposit level when designing the model 3. I'm not saying that pre-orders are not from real customers. Traditional car makers sometimes do fleet sales to guarantee minimum production. At times, this is even required in a union contract to ensure adequate hours.

"Car service" also means China, where owners are often in the second row. The model 3's second row emphasis suits China. Musk is likely looking for a Chinese partner to fund a factory in the country.

I try to find ways that Musk not be crazy for some of his design choices.

 

[Laban]

For your poll to be meaningful you would need to quantify "more headroom". There were more design choices than taking the current shape and making it a lift back. How about this poll question: "Would you prefer a liftback with rear headroom for a 6'2" person?"

Sure, they could have chosen a different design. Lets compare the BMW 328i sedan with the 328i Grand Tourismo (liftback). The GT costs $2650 more then the sedan, it's 3.4 inches higher and probably also has a higher Cd. I would guess a total of $5k on top of the $35k since it would need a larger battery..

This would have been a really bad idea imo. They wouldn't have been able to meet the target price and the market obviously doesn't require it (370k preorders). And the upcoming Model Y will take care of the customers that wants that type of car. So why do it ?

 

[Big-T]

What separates an S from a 3? I'd say about $40,000!