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What would EV % be if......

Sunlight

Member
May 7, 2014
331
777
South Africa
Certainly some sort of critical point has arrived for EVs recently (during 2018?) with regulatory changes; new models and chargers; and a general attitude shift.

Car manufacturers can no longer diss EVs as they will be bringing models to market soon(ish).

IF there was an unlimited supply of cars from numerous manufacturers today in all guises - SUV; CUV; estates; sportscars; pickups etc - to satisfy all needs (and the battery supply....), I was just wondering what the uptake would actually be now?

I have no idea as it is so hypothetical but I'd guess around 15-20% already.

Fire away!
 

Sunlight

Member
May 7, 2014
331
777
South Africa
Even if every single car sold in the entire 2018 was an EV, you would still have less than 15% EVs on the road. Average car lifespan is around 8 years, so it’s going to take awhile to phase out ICE vehicles...
No I mean new car sales %.

I realise that it will take many years to get rid of existing ICE cars - in fact I wonder how this will happen?

Say by 2035 100% of new cars are EVs and cities/countries have banned ICE cars, what happens to the zillions of redundant ICE cars? Scrap?

Or recycled as EVs with conversions?

If they just carry on being used where they can, the OEMs will have to carry on producing spares - this seems to me unsustainable.
 

ewoodrick

Well-Known Member
Apr 13, 2018
5,285
4,282
Buford, GA
Certainly some sort of critical point has arrived for EVs recently (during 2018?) with regulatory changes; new models and chargers; and a general attitude shift.

Car manufacturers can no longer diss EVs as they will be bringing models to market soon(ish).

IF there was an unlimited supply of cars from numerous manufacturers today in all guises - SUV; CUV; estates; sportscars; pickups etc - to satisfy all needs (and the battery supply....), I was just wondering what the uptake would actually be now?

I have no idea as it is so hypothetical but I'd guess around 15-20% already.

Fire away!
If there was an unlimited variety of vehicles, the only thing I can guarantee you is that none of today's vehicles would be sold, as they are all pretty bad compromises.

You do have to remember that trucks are holding the top of the market.

Would sales be 100% electric? No.
 

SSedan

Active Member
Jul 24, 2017
2,948
2,591
Greenville Wisconsin
Last I saw actual data was the average car on the road in the USA was 11.6 years but trending up.
If ICE sales are banned by 2035 globally which is NOT going to happen ICE will still be reasonably common in 2050. I live in the rust belt and 90s cars are common sights.

People are interested but most folks are not yet comfortable with the idea of even the time it takes to supercharge, or the "what if?" you go somewhere that doesn't have chargers, yes I tell them even a regular wall plug works and rattle off all the superchargers in range, but this doesn't flip a switch and change minds it does get them thinking about it more though.

Time and exposure is the only solution and we have to be HONEST with folks, a sycophant ranting about how ICE are going to kill us all by 2023 if they aren't banned yesterday isn't going to convince anyone of anything but your craziness.
 

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