What would happen to the current S after the 3 is fully out in 2018?

[EnjoyingLife]

I've been reading this forum for a while. It seems to me there is always someone that would say not to buy the current 2017 S 75D New Inventory/Custom Order. Instead, wait until Tesla has successfully sustained the whatever number production per week next year and then the S will be way cheaper.

I understand buying any car new, we take on the initial depreciation hit - that's pretty standard and given. What I'm not understanding is, why would the 3 make all previously owned S cheaper than usual? Is it because there would be more Tesla out on the roads regardless of 3/S/X or S/E/X? Ha couldn't help it. Is it because less demand for the S due to people won't spend $20,000+ more for a higher end car that is slightly better in everyway? Or is it simply because cheaper model drive down the brand name? Kind of like how AMEX used to be THE card to carry and 10-15 years ago, they rolled out a blue card or whatever card and AMEX became just another credit card like Visa.

 

[kev1n]

if you're not familiar with the tech world, something new and better will always be coming out. its a matter of whether you want the product now or satisfied with what is available at the time versus waiting for the tech to get better.

think of smartphones for example. each year a new one comes out and it will be better than the previous one for the similar cost.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I've been reading this forum for a while. It seems to me there is always someone that would say not to buy the current 2017 S 75D New Inventory/Custom Order. Instead, wait until Tesla has successfully sustained the whatever number production per week next year and then the S will be way cheaper.

I understand buying any car new, we take on the initial depreciation hit - that's pretty standard and given. What I'm not understanding is, why would the 3 make all previously owned S cheaper than usual? Is it because there would be more Tesla out on the roads regardless of 3/S/X or S/E/X? Ha couldn't help it. Is it because less demand for the S due to people won't spend $20,000+ more for a higher end car that is slightly better in everyway? Or is it simply because cheaper model drive down the brand name? Kind of like how AMEX used to be THE card to carry and 10-15 years ago, they rolled out a blue card or whatever card and AMEX became just another credit card like Visa.

The 3 means another affordable long-range BEV, so:
- it reduces the reasons to buy up to a new S.
- it reduces the reasons to buy up to a used S.

It doesn't mean that no-one will want the S, it just takes some people out of the market.

 

[Troy]

Is it because less demand for the S due to people won't spend $20,000+ more for a higher end car that is slightly better in every way?

Here are the reasons why the Model 3 Long Range is better than the 75 or 85 kWh Model S versions.

• The Model 3 LR has 20% more range than the Model S 75
• The Model 3 LR is 20% more efficient than the Model S 75
  
• The Model 3 LR has 78.3 kWh usable battery capacity (source: page 6 footer) vs 72.6 kWh in the Model S 75 (source) and 77.5 kWh in the Model S 85 (source).
• The Model 3 LR battery degradation is 20% slower than the Model S 75 because it requires fewer charge cycles for the same mileage.
• The Model 3 has 1.5" more headroom in the front and 2.4" more in the rear seats than the Model S. Model 3: Front= 40.3”, Rear = 37.7”(source), Model S: Front= 38.8", Rear= 35.3" (source)
• The Model 3 has the newer battery technology
• The Model 3 has a driver facing camera
• The Model 3 center console has more storage space
• The Model 3 has door pockets
• The Model 3 is more aerodynamic (0.23 vs 0.24)
• The Model 3 has a more modern design
  
• The Model 3 LR costs 20% less to charge than the Model S 75 because it gets more mileage per kWh
  
• The Model 3 insurance will cost less than the Model S
• The Model 3 LR is cheaper to buy than the Model S 75
• The Model 3 roof rack can be attached regardless whether you have the glass or metal roof. (source)
  
• The Model 3 is future proof but the Model S is not because Tesla will redesign the Model S to make it easier to manufacture which means current Model S cars will be locked to the current battery pack options. You won't be able to upgrade the battery.
  
• The Model 3 LR is not about to be discontinued however the Model S 75 is. Tesla has already confirmed this. Buying a car that is about to be discontinued is not appealing to many buyers. The Model 3 75D is also likely to be discontinued when sales drop to almost zero soon.
  
• The Model 3 has the more automated production line. Listen here to Elon confirming this. That means fewer parts are hand assembled compared to the Model S which means fewer manufacturing errors.
• Model 3 LR resale value is not going to tank soon but the 75 kWh Model S is.

In addition, because you are asking about a Model 3 vs a CPO Model S:

• The Model 3 has AP2.5 hardware (source) but a CPO Model S you can buy now will have AP2.0 hardware at best.

 

[EnjoyingLife]

if you're not familiar with the tech world, something new and better will always be coming out. its a matter of whether you want the product now or satisfied with what is available at the time versus waiting for the tech to get better.

think of smartphones for example. each year a new one comes out and it will be better than the previous one for the similar cost.

I do agree...however, it would be the same as this year vs last year without the model 3.

Here are the reasons why the Model 3 Long Range is better than the 75 or 85 kWh Model S versions.

• The Model 3 LR has 20% more range than the Model S 75
• The Model 3 LR is 20% more efficient than the Model S 75
  
• The Model 3 LR has 78.3 kWh usable battery capacity (source: page 6 footer) vs 72.6 kWh in the Model S 75 (source) and 77.5 kWh in the Model S 85 (source).
• The Model 3 LR battery degradation is 20% slower than the Model S 75 because it requires fewer charge cycles for the same mileage.
• The Model 3 has 1.5" more headroom in the front and 2.4" more in the rear seats than the Model S. Model 3: Front= 40.3”, Rear = 37.7”(source), Model S: Front= 38.8", Rear= 35.3" (source)
• The Model 3 has the newer battery technology
• The Model 3 has a driver facing camera
• The Model 3 center console has more storage space
• The Model 3 has door pockets
• The Model 3 is more aerodynamic (0.23 vs 0.24)
• The Model 3 has a more modern design
  
• The Model 3 LR costs 20% less to charge than the Model S 75 because it gets more mileage per kWh
  
• The Model 3 insurance will cost less than the Model S
• The Model 3 LR is cheaper to buy than the Model S 75
• The Model 3 roof rack can be attached regardless whether you have the glass or metal roof. (source)
  
• The Model 3 is future proof but the Model S is not because Tesla will redesign the Model S to make it easier to manufacture which means current Model S cars will be locked to the current battery pack options. You won't be able to upgrade the battery.
  
• The Model 3 LR is not about to be discontinued however the Model S 75 is. Tesla has already confirmed this. Buying a car that is about to be discontinued is not appealing to many buyers. The Model 3 75D is also likely to be discontinued when sales drop to almost zero soon.
  
• The Model 3 has the more automated production line. Listen here to Elon confirming this. That means fewer parts are hand assembled compared to the Model S which means fewer manufacturing errors.
• Model 3 LR resale value is not going to tank soon but the 75 kWh Model S is.

In addition, because you are asking about a Model 3 vs a CPO Model S:

• The Model 3 has AP2.5 hardware (source) but a CPO Model S you can buy now will have AP2.0 hardware at best.

First, thanks for your informative post! This is exactly what I was looking for as I was just guessing... BTW, I was talking about current new order or inventory not a CPO BUT I do get your point as they are all AP2.0.

My inventory 75D is coming, so there is no turning back now lol. I tend to hold on to my cars really long. We are talking about 15 years. While my initial reaction after reading your comments was oh crap! But then if I'm planning to keep it for 10 years (assuming everything still works then), resale value shouldn't be my concern. Though if it's like today's phone vs a cell phone 10 years ago, I would be f'd!

 

[kev1n]

I do agree...however, it would be the same as this year vs last year without the model 3.

First, thanks for your informative post! This is exactly what I was looking for as I was just guessing... BTW, I was talking about current new order or inventory not a CPO BUT I do get your point as they are all AP2.0.

My inventory 75D is coming, so there is no turning back now lol. I tend to hold on to my cars really long. We are talking about 15 years. While my initial reaction after reading your comments was oh crap! But then if I'm planning to keep it for 10 years (assuming everything still works then), resale value shouldn't be my concern. Though if it's like today's phone vs a cell phone 10 years ago, I would be f'd!

not exactly,

i think the 75 getting performance increase is huge.
along with all the other bits they added in as standard now such as air suspension, power lift gate, etc for the same price.

yes there isnt any "new tech" but more bang for the buck

 

[icefree]

Just to add some balance points here:

• The Model S has over twice the cargo capacity of the Model 3 (31.6 cu ft vs 15 cu ft)
• The Model S has more shoulder space than the Model 3 (Front 57.7", Rear 55.0" vs 56.3” front row, 54.0” second row)
• The Model S has more hip room than the Model 3 (Front 55.0", Rear 54.7" vs 53.4” front row, 52.4” second row)
• The Model S has Smart air suspension with GPS memory for automatically raising and lowering ride height
• Model S top speed is 155mph vs Model 3 140mph
• Model S has HEPA filter available
• Model S has power liftgate
• Model S has self presenting door handles
• Model S has instrument cluster display
  
• Model S can carry up to 7 people (with rear seats)
• The Model S has (much!) higher acceleration available
• The Model S has more available range
• You won't be lost in a swarm of 400,000+ Model 3 cars in a year (don't get me wrong, I'll likely have one also )
  
• The Model S is simply a more beautiful car! (Ok, I know this is subjective, but 'cmon, seriously)

 

[RyanDe680]

For me it comes down to space on the inside. I have two boys - with any kids comes 20+lbs of crap to take with, so the interior room of the S and the extra cargo space are what made my decision easier.

That and I don't want to lose the instrument cluster display yet. I'm too used to that.

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

• Model S comes with free supercharging for now
• Model S is likely safer
• Model S likely has a more planted decent ride.
• Model S has two screens, yes that matters.
• Model S has a decent frunk.
• Model S is not THAT much more expensive than 3 once you factor in rebates (which you won't get on 3)
• You can get in a Model S today, 2 years from today who knows where you'll be.
• Dual motor
• More things ..

 

[EnjoyingLife]

Lots of good points here folks! Also, when I think back to why I committed to the car I bought, even though I have and still have the 3 reservation from day 1, was because of the AWD. My reservation for AWD for the 3 isn't available until Q4 of next year. I think that's why I bought the 75D 2 weeks ago. Well, that and got sold on the $10,000+ discount by the OA. Now I know why it was discounted heavily - older drive unit.

I also wonder would it be like Prius all over again maybe after next year with the Model 3. Remember when the prius first came up with the hybrid. Everyone was so excited and those owners felt like they were better than the rest of us (or at least that how I felt)? Then fast forward to now, we see them everywhere.

Note: In case it wasn't clear, I am not implying that Tesla owners feel they are better than everyone else. Actually, from the random Tesla owners I talk to, they have been pretty excited and welcoming.

 

[Destiny1701]

MS is a beauty. Proportionally stunning.

It also brought us insane, ludicrous mode, ludicrous + , and the fastest vehicle on the planet (2.28 sec P100D) and shattered all auto and consumer report reviews for years. All model S's now run 0-60 in 2.3 - 4.2 sec which is truly the supercar to high performance realm, not a regular sedan. I also see model S as the introductory game changer in the auto industry. The performance of a Ferrari with 4 doors, 5-7 passengers and cargo space. What a feat of engineering! Oh ...and almost forgot...it's electric. Whaaat? No gas?

The volume of internal room is excellent and quite similar to an SUV in terms of cargo capacity. The handling is superb, the integrated screens are aesthetically pleasing and also safer with 2 screens as those who own an MS would know if they experienced the occasional screen freeze and reset), the leg room in the front and rear are stellar and the pano roof, auto rear trunk, auto handles, alcatera dash, auto suspension are all wonderful features.

Sorry but I can't say the M3 front looks as well crafted proportionally as the MS and the rear seems to be a bit short. Yes It's going to be a great mass production EV with the guts of the Tesla brand but it does not hold up to the MS in overall appearance.

.....free supercharging...not just hardware free...

The S will hold its own in terms of its value to a select group of the population who value these points and more.

Will I still own an M3? Absolutely it's a Tesla!

 

[Troy]

Hi, @EnjoyingLife. I didn't know you had already bought a Model S. Congratulations on your new purchase. The Model S has some advantages too like free Supercharging and more cargo space as others have pointed out. By the way, you could keep your Model 3 reservation and see how things evolve over time in terms of whether you want to switch to a Model 3 or not. Your AWD delivery estimate should change to July 2018 - Sept 2018 because of owner priority. Federal tax credits should be $3,750 for deliveries in Q3 and Q4 2018.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

think of smartphones for example. each year a new one comes out and it will be better than the previous one for the similar cost.

Tesla changes their product many times each quarter, so the comparison to smartphone world does not quite stick, where each major brand usually takes a year between major changes.

In this case, Model 3 release is sort of an annual change though, one whose effects of Model S/X are not yet fully known.

My recommendation is wait on your Model S/X order until it gets all things Model 3 has such as a revised interior, surity it will get the interior camera (we do not know yet when that happens, though Model 3's AP HW 2.5 computer is at least now being included for new orders), and the new 2170 battery that is very likely to include improvements not publicized yet.

Who knows what other imminent product changes for Model S/X are waiting to be noticed in the Model 3. After all, no matter what Tesla tries to assure us, Model 3 is Tesla's next-gen and Model S/X are missing several things Model 3 is now getting...

My suggestion is to wait until Model 3 customer deliveries start in around October 2017 at the very least, and preferably until Q1/2018 or whenever the 2170 batteries come, before ordering Model S/X - if you have no pressing reason to order sooner.

If we want to use the smartphone metaphor, Model 3 is a bit like stuff leaking from the factory of the next iPhone. Model 3 is sort of a leak of the imminent future of Model S/X very likely IMO.

 

[whitex]

Saying Model 3 will depreciate a Model S is like saying iPhone 5C depreciated iPhone 5S. Or like saying a BMW M3 depreciates the M5. Will there be some percentage to folks who prefer to buy a Model 3 because of price, sure, but the overall demand will be different. Apple used to own 80% of the smartphone market. Today is has 12%. Did they lose 85% of their revenue, of course not. The smartphone market got bigger, so they have a smaller piece of a much larger pie. Model S will be the same - it will capture a smaller piece of a larger market. Model 3 will expand the market very significantly (consider the simple fact that Tesla is planning to manufacture 500K of them per year, which is 10x last year's production of Model S). Model 3 will grow the EV market (as will competitor products) by increasing awareness, growing support infrastructure, etc.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Saying Model 3 will depreciate a Model S is like saying iPhone 5C depreciated iPhone 5S. Or like saying a BMW M3 depreciates the M5. Will there be some percentage to folks who prefer to buy a Model 3 because of price, sure, but the overall demand will be different. Apple used to own 80% of the smartphone market. Today is has 12%. Did they lose 85% of their revenue, of course not. The smartphone market got bigger, so they have a smaller piece of a much larger pie. Model S will be the same - it will capture a smaller piece of a larger market. Model 3 will expand the market very significantly (consider the simple fact that Tesla is planning to manufacture 500K of them per year, which is 10x last year's production of Model S). By growing the market, the infrastructure (chargers) will get built out as well, further fueling the demand for S as well as the 3.

I thought this thread was about buying and owning a Model S (in the age of Model 3), and how Model S purchasing might be affected, not Tesla's market share?

 

[whitex]

I thought this thread was about buying and owning a Model S (in the age of Model 3), and how Model S purchasing might be affected, not Tesla's market share?

Market share is completely different than share price -> Market share - Wikipedia

An example rounding numbers would be:

• Last year Tesla sold 50K Model S per year, 25K Model X and 0 Model 3's.
• In a couple of years (assuming competitors won't eat away at Tesla's marker share) they could be selling 500K Model 3's, 100K Model S's and 50K Model X. You can say, wow, 77% of people prefer to buy a Model 3 over S or X, and you'd be correct, however that doesn't mean the demand for Model S has gone down, it's actually doubled.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Market share is completely different than share price -> Market share - Wikipedia

An example rounding numbers would be:

• Last year Tesla sold 50K Model S per year, 25K Model X and 0 Model 3's.
• In a couple of years (assuming competitors won't eat away at Tesla's marker share) they could be selling 500K Model 3's, 100K Model S's and 50K Model X. You can say, wow, 77% of people prefer to buy a Model 3 over S or X, and you'd be correct, however that doesn't mean the demand for Model S has gone down, it's actually doubled.

I thought this thread was about buying and owning a Model S (in the age of Model 3), and how Model S purchasing might be affected, not Tesla's market share or share price?

I guess this is just one of those results of car buyers and owners mingling in the same space with investors. People see topics very differently.

 

[whitex]

I thought this thread was about buying and owning a Model S (in the age of Model 3), and how Model S purchasing might be affected, not Tesla's market share or share price?

I guess this is just one of those results of car buyers and owners mingling in the same space with investors. People see topics very differently.

Ok, let me see if I can address your query as directly as possible - release of Model 3 will actually increase the total number of Model S purchases. Another way, more people will buy Model S once Model 3 is out there. Third way, I own 2 Model S's today. I expect Model 3 to create a whole lot more interested customers for my used Model S in 2 years than there would be if Model 3 never came out. I also expect the Model 3 to run out the federal rebate at a lot faster rate, which means my used S's get an addition surge in value. Is that direct on point now?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Ok, let me see if I can address your query as directly as possible - release of Model 3 will actually increase the total number of Model S purchases. Another way, more people will buy Model S once Model 3 is out there. Third way, I own 2 Model S's today. I expect Model 3 to create a whole lot more interested customers for my used Model S in 2 years than there would be if Model 3 never came out. I also expect the Model 3 to run out the federal rebate at a lot faster rate, which means my used S's get an addition surge in value. Is that direct on point now?

I do understand the idea of monetary depreciation of the car being a part of this thread, that is one part of the OPs question. I was just puzzled by the foray into Tesla the company.

 

[KarenRei]

• Model S comes with free supercharging for now
• Model S is likely safer
• Model S likely has a more planted decent ride.
• Model S has two screens, yes that matters.
• Model S has a decent frunk.
• Model S is not THAT much more expensive than 3 once you factor in rebates (which you won't get on 3)
• You can get in a Model S today, 2 years from today who knows where you'll be.
• Dual motor
• More things ..

Let me add even more.

• Model S gets unlimited data free for several years
• Model S has an unlimited-mileage warranty, vs. 120k on the M3.
• Model S has its drive unit included in the 8 year / unlimited mileage battery warranty. M3 appears not to.
• The Model S models you describe get ~200-215 miles range in the first 30 minutes supercharging from empty, while M3 LR gets 170 (and SR gets 130).
• Model S AC charging is also faster, if the power supply is sufficient.
• Model S, having been in production longer, is likely to have fewer fit & finish problems / manufacturing defects than early M3s.

On the M3's side, I'd add:

• Being smaller means easier parking
• Being lighter generally means better handling when cornering.
• Some people would prefer the more minimalist aesthetic (I do).

Really, while they clearly have a common heritage, they do have significant differences, and it's going to be up to each person which fits their needs best. You know, if you drive 30k miles per year, even if you'd rather buy a M3, the MS may even be the cheaper option financially because of those unlimited mileage warranties. Ignoring its higher end features, extra space, higher performance, faster charging from high power sources, etc.

Get what suits you best