What Would It Take for Tesla to Reach Apples' Market Cap in 2025?

[flankspeed8]

Yes, that's public knowledge. What's your point? It's also public knowledge he spends very little time there. Paraphrased, he has said, "I show up now and again when I'm supposed to."

There is no competition between the two companies. They will work as a team, each providing a piece of the puzzle, and move forward to the common goal.

So if they are working together, they will share the profit?

My point is that there seems to be nothing highly proprietary about a setup like this. What would stop Solar City or any other PV provider from designing and selling a similar system thus diluting the potential revenue. Musk has interest in both companies, what would stop SCTY from selling a similar product. The hype here is that this is something only Tesla can and will build when admittedly, the first systems are using non-GF batteries. Tesla will not have a monopoly on this. Make sense?

 

[Krugerrand]

So if they are working together, they will share the profit?

Both companies will profit, yes.

My point is that there seems to be nothing highly proprietary about a setup like this.

Really? Nothing proprietary? Wow. No R&D at all was involved in producing Tesla's batteries, pack, cooling and management system that allows for fast charging etc., etc...? That's why all the other OEMs are just pumping out the 250+/- battery range EVs.

What would stop Solar City or any other PV provider from designing and selling a similar system thus diluting the potential revenue.

Ahahahaha! How much does it cost right now for a home owner to buy an energy storage system? Who has the lowest battery costs? Who is about to lower those costs by 30%+ with a Gigafactory? What's stopping other PV providers, um...several years of R&D and a few billion dollars is all.

Musk has interest in both companies, what would stop SCTY from selling a similar product.

I just told you. Solar City is run by family members that have a common vision. While I'm sure dysfunction resides within the family, like most, these members will not be competitors but rather partners.

The hype here is that this is something only Tesla can and will build when admittedly, the first systems are using non-GF batteries. Tesla will not have a monopoly on this. Make sense?

No, the hype is not that this is something only Tesla can and will build. The *truth* is that Tesla is way freaking ahead of anyone else on the planet with their battery technology and costs.

 

[jhm]

Oh, yes! There's a definite pattern and the direction can change. I think he's given up trying to *encourage* the OEMs to build EVs; I think he's now planning to *force* them to build EVs or die. There might be one other option: *join*, but I think that's on a very limited time offer.

Yeah, the time of encouragement is over. The next step is to take marketshare. If that does force them, the final step is take over, as in buying up factories for pennies on the dollar.

 

[SteveG3]

So if they are working together, they will share the profit?

My point is that there seems to be nothing highly proprietary about a setup like this. What would stop Solar City or any other PV provider from designing and selling a similar system thus diluting the potential revenue. Musk has interest in both companies, what would stop SCTY from selling a similar product. The hype here is that this is something only Tesla can and will build when admittedly, the first systems are using non-GF batteries. Tesla will not have a monopoly on this. Make sense?

Flankspeed it would seem we are likely to get a look into the relationship of Tesla and Solar City within a few months when Tesla unveils there commercial and residential product.

As to what's stopping others from jumping in. At some point it will happen, but there are sizable barriers to entry and its a large market with room for multiple players anyway.

Off the top of my head barriers to entry: Tesla doesn't merely ask Panasonic what's their latest and greatest, Tesla does cell
development. In addition, remember the GF is meant to have lithium ion battery production equal in volume to all other plants on the planet combined last year. This both means without financing and building a GF of their own, no one else has the kind of supply Tesla has or as low a cost given Tesla's logistic and economy of scale advantages with their massive plant. Throw in Elon's standing with potential partners and customers and agressive forward thinking and acting and Tesla is in a very strong position.

 

[flankspeed8]

Both companies will profit, yes.



Really? Nothing proprietary? Wow. No R&D at all was involved in producing Tesla's batteries, pack, cooling and management system that allows for fast charging etc., etc...? That's why all the other OEMs are just pumping out the 250+/- battery range EVs.



Ahahahaha! How much does it cost right now for a home owner to buy an energy storage system? Who has the lowest battery costs? Who is about to lower those costs by 30%+ with a Gigafactory? What's stopping other PV providers, um...several years of R&D and a few billion dollars is all.



I just told you. Solar City is run by family members that have a common vision. While I'm sure dysfunction resides within the family, like most, these members will not be competitors but rather partners.



No, the hype is not that this is something only Tesla can and will build. The *truth* is that Tesla is way freaking ahead of anyone else on the planet with their battery technology and costs.

I didn't realize that cells for home storage were going to require such an elaborate active cooling system the same as those in the MS. I thought I saw someone who cannibalized a used Tesla pack that they just stripped out the individual cell packs. Grid storage while in its infancy is not anything new. Chevy Volt packs made by LG have been used as apparently are BMW i3. It was a simple question, why would other companies not get into this in a substantial way. And as has been widely published the initial cells will be non-GF that I am guessing could be bought from Panasonic. Grid storage is not going to require the minimal footprint that is critical for a moving vehicle. I was just saying that it seems like from a business standpoint, grid storage is more organic to a solar company and Elon just so happens to have an interest in one. So in the interest that it will be a JV, this means profit sharing which is germane to the original subject of this thread. Was not meant to offend anyones sensibilities.

 

[Krugerrand]

I didn't realize that cells for home storage were going to require such an elaborate active cooling system the same as those in the MS. I thought I saw someone who cannibalized a used Tesla pack that they just stripped out the individual cell packs. Grid storage while in its infancy is not anything new. Chevy Volt packs made by LG have been used as apparently are BMW i3. It was a simple question, why would other companies not get into this in a substantial way. And as has been widely published the initial cells will be non-GF that I am guessing could be bought from Panasonic. Grid storage is not going to require the minimal footprint that is critical for a moving vehicle. I was just saying that it seems like from a business standpoint, grid storage is more organic to a solar company and Elon just so happens to have an interest in one. So in the interest that it will be a JV, this means profit sharing which is germane to the original subject of this thread. Was not meant to offend anyones sensibilities.

I have no idea what Tesla has designed. We'll see it soon. What I do know is that it will be 'elegant', the most affordable, the most compact, the most advanced, might have the best warranty and a whole host of other things that are only limited by Tesla's imagination. It'll be in a league of its own. Like with EVs, Tesla will have leap frogged any and all current energy storage units on the market, leaving everyone else in the dust.

GF battery cells are also 'Panasonic' cells. Panasonic is a partner in GF. They (the cells) are not 'different' at this point. Cell chemistry is expected to change as is the cylinder size at some point. The first GF cells will be more expensive than the GF cells at GF full production. Economy of scales will kick in as time goes by and I suspect that means one of three things; a) batteries are sold cheaper as time goes by, or b) Tesla realizes more profit as time goes by, or c) a combination of a & b.

One of our cell and battery specialist may be able to explain the chasm between Tesla and the rest, so you might understand the significance of what's about to happen in this 'second' multi-trillion dollar market that Tesla is about to enter.

 

[jhm]

I have no idea what Tesla has designed. We'll see it soon. What I do know is that it will be 'elegant', the most affordable, the most compact, the most advanced, might have the best warranty and a whole host of other things that are only limited by Tesla's imagination. It'll be in a league of its own. Like with EVs, Tesla will have leap frogged any and all current energy storage units on the market, leaving everyone else in the dust.

GF battery cells are also 'Panasonic' cells. Panasonic is a partner in GF. They (the cells) are not 'different' at this point. Cell chemistry is expected to change as is the cylinder size at some point. The first GF cells will be more expensive than the GF cells at GF full production. Economy of scales will kick in as time goes by and I suspect that means one of three things; a) batteries are sold cheaper as time goes by, or b) Tesla realizes more profit as time goes by, or c) a combination of a & b.

What puzzles me is that Tesla has already designed a 10 kWh DemandLogic product. So what did they learn from that initial effort? And how will this new product advance beyond that? I know they had a lot of problems with utilities dragging their feet on approving DL devices for use. The utilities had a lot of concern about these devices being able to sell power back to the utility (as if that makes any meaningful difference in the first place). Even so, there may be advantages to building a more streamlined device that does not feed back to the utility. Perhaps such a device would not require any reluctant utility approval at all. So a device that only takes DC in and DC out would be cheaper to make and avoid utility interference. Such a device could use the inverter that goes along with the solar panels to provide AC power to the home, and the device could also deliver high speed DC charging to an EV. One wrinkle in this is how to continue to charge the car from an AC source when the device battery is tapped out. If the device can be charged from an AC source, this would solve the charging problem, but expose the utility problem of selling power back to the utility that was originally bought from the utility. It's a laughable complaint by the utilities, but such is the nature of regulatory games. So something streamlined that simply stores solar power for use in home and car could be just the ticket at this point.

Also for use with charging cars I suspect they may need to go with 20 kWh or more rather than 10. Homes use 30 kWh on a typical day and cars 10 - 30 kWh per day depending on number of EVs and driving needs. So 10 kWh does not go far for a home with two EVs. If the product is modular, then 10 kWh modules could be sensible.

If the device can be used as a full service charger for a car, then it could eliminate the need to get a wall charger. So one could save $750 on the HPWC and go with the storage device.