What would make you cancel your Model 3 Reservation?

[McRat]

... Chevy Bolt is laughable from my perspective. I mean it would be a nice $20k car don't get me wrong..

I'm not sure there are any cars you are thinking of.

First, understand that EVs in traffic are much quicker than ICE cars with the same performance metrics. That being said...

List the $20k 4 door automatic hatchbacks that will always, instantly, without powerbraking the crap out of them or manually shifting it, have similar performance to the EV Bolt.

Let's start with the current ICE darling in this category:

The 2017 Civic Hatchback CVT with it's 180HP turbo engine (more powerful than a late 1970's Corvette V8) when powerbraked at a dragstrip is still significantly slower than the Bolt EV even though the Civic has a better power to weight ratio. But when it comes to instant passing power in the mountains, the ICE loses tragically, enough to get you killed.

Both sets of data from Car and Driver testing. Note that high altitude or hot weather significantly degrades ICE performance, this is sea level testing.

Honda 180HP $21,375 MSRP hatchback (stripper)
Zero to 60 mph: 6.9 sec
Rolling start, 5-60 mph: 7.3 sec
Top gear, 30-50 mph: 3.9 sec
Top gear, 50-70 mph: 4.8 sec
Standing ¼-mile: 15.4 sec @ 93 mph
Observed MPG - 27mpg (?????)

Bolt EV California price after incentives (stripper) $24,495 -
Zero to 60 mph: 6.5 sec
Rolling start, 5-60 mph: 6.6 sec
Top gear, 30-50 mph: 2.5 sec
Top gear, 50-70 mph: 3.5 sec
Standing ¼-mile: 15.0 sec @ 93 mph (hit speed limiter prior to 1/4 mile)

So choose the Civic if EV performance is not something you value.

But the idea that an EV powertrain is worthless (not having a value) is just silly, especially for an EV buyer. If you are buying an EV to Save Da Whales, IMO, you are missing the best aspect of EVs.

 

[Big-T]

Well, just got word that my 2nd co-worker canceled his reservation. That leaves me the sole reservation holder in my department that I know of. I know you can't extrapolate meaningful data from a group of only 3 people but just for the fun of it, that would mean 400,000 deposits would translate into 132,000 sales. I'm sure my example will now be picked up by some of the stock shorts and turned into analyst article somewhere.

 

[flamingoezz]

Extrapolating out a 3 person sample size is hardly worth entertaining -- but even if they lost 25% of their reservations, that would really hurt Tesla. I'd imagine that have some sort of contracts with suppliers to buy X parts for their vehicle production and they are planning on ramping to 400K or so cars a year very quickly based on reservation numbers.

Investors consider those cards sold already -- if suddenly they don't, the stock shorts would finally get what they wanted.

Well, just got word that my 2nd co-worker canceled his reservation. That leaves me the sole reservation holder in my department that I know of. I know you can't extrapolate meaningful data from a group of only 3 people but just for the fun of it, that would mean 400,000 deposits would translate into 132,000 sales. I'm sure my example will now be picked up by some of the stock shorts and turned into analyst article somewhere.

 

[Weezer Fan]

Only a catastrophe will cause me to cancel. I'm getting this car. If I don't like it, I will sell it later and get something different. (Model Y?) But, I am committed to switching from gas to electricity. And, no other car is as American as Tesla. No other manufacturer has the vision that Tesla does. And I need to be able to drive from Denver to KC in my car.

 

[MXWing]

Well, just got word that my 2nd co-worker canceled his reservation. That leaves me the sole reservation holder in my department that I know of. I know you can't extrapolate meaningful data from a group of only 3 people but just for the fun of it, that would mean 400,000 deposits would translate into 132,000 sales. I'm sure my example will now be picked up by some of the stock shorts and turned into analyst article somewhere.

What were the cancellation reasons?

66% of Model 3 reservations cancelled. LOL

 

[trayloader]

Back to topic.
For me the M3 success and purchase also correlates with the transparent and open strategy of an exisiting recycling strategy.
At this point I´m´holding on to the reservation, but this is a key strategic mission for Tesla.
3500000000 batteries that is.

 

[brshoemak]

Well, just got word that my 2nd co-worker canceled his reservation. That leaves me the sole reservation holder in my department that I know of. I know you can't extrapolate meaningful data from a group of only 3 people but just for the fun of it, that would mean 400,000 deposits would translate into 132,000 sales. I'm sure my example will now be picked up by some of the stock shorts and turned into analyst article somewhere.

There's already a 3 page article on SeekingAlpha with additional analysis and they said had yet to get a comment from the source. Expect a phone call.

OT: I'm wavering because of how fast they seem to be trying to push it out the door. Unless they have manufacturing on point, even with rolling out the first batch to employees, many issues could arise. I can't imagine waiting in queue for 1,000 cars ahead of me (so few service centers) getting recall work performed.

 

[xav-]

I'm not sure there are any cars you are thinking of.

First, understand that EVs in traffic are much quicker than ICE cars with the same performance metrics. That being said...

List the $20k 4 door automatic hatchbacks that will always, instantly, without powerbraking the crap out of them or manually shifting it, have similar performance to the EV Bolt.

Let's start with the current ICE darling in this category:

The 2017 Civic Hatchback CVT with it's 180HP turbo engine (more powerful than a late 1970's Corvette V8) when powerbraked at a dragstrip is still significantly slower than the Bolt EV even though the Civic has a better power to weight ratio. But when it comes to instant passing power in the mountains, the ICE loses tragically, enough to get you killed.

Both sets of data from Car and Driver testing. Note that high altitude or hot weather significantly degrades ICE performance, this is sea level testing.

Honda 180HP $21,375 MSRP hatchback (stripper)
Zero to 60 mph: 6.9 sec
Rolling start, 5-60 mph: 7.3 sec
Top gear, 30-50 mph: 3.9 sec
Top gear, 50-70 mph: 4.8 sec
Standing ¼-mile: 15.4 sec @ 93 mph
Observed MPG - 27mpg (?????)

Bolt EV California price after incentives (stripper) $24,495 -
Zero to 60 mph: 6.5 sec
Rolling start, 5-60 mph: 6.6 sec
Top gear, 30-50 mph: 2.5 sec
Top gear, 50-70 mph: 3.5 sec
Standing ¼-mile: 15.0 sec @ 93 mph (hit speed limiter prior to 1/4 mile)

So choose the Civic if EV performance is not something you value.

But the idea that an EV powertrain is worthless (not having a value) is just silly, especially for an EV buyer. If you are buying an EV to Save Da Whales, IMO, you are missing the best aspect of EVs.

I doubt the people who will buy the Bolt will really care about the fact that it saves .6 second at the quarter mile over a Civic SI. The folks who care most likely will wait for the model 3.

The car doesn't look to be marketed for performance at all to me. That said cherry picking the performance benefit and skipping everything else (battery degradation in the cold, long time to charge etc) is not fair especially when there is no supercharging network

 

[McRat]

I doubt the people who will buy the Bolt will really care about the fact that it saves .6 second at the quarter mile over a Civic SI. The folks who care most likely will wait for the model 3.

The car doesn't look to be marketed for performance at all to me. That said cherry picking the performance benefit and skipping everything else (battery degradation in the cold, long time to charge etc) is not fair especially when there is no supercharging network

Low speed pass, 1.4 second advantage is 56% less time on the wrong side of the road on the mountain.
High speed pass, 1.3 second advantage is 37% less time on the wrong side of the road on the mountain, or 9 car lengths.

That's not subtle, and the new Civic is not slow for a "$20,000 car". To make it worse, the mountains degrade the ICE powered Civic's performance even further.

The Bolt's EV performance exists in the real world, I've driven one already. Unlike current low cost EVs, the punch is still very good at highway speeds, not just 0-30mph.

All batteries have issues in cold temperatures. It's because they are based on chemical reactions. The Model 3 will not be exempt.

I am waiting for a Model 3, but I'm not prepared to claim a Bolt is a $20k econobox. When you drive one you will understand.

 

[gekcut]

First, after kibitzing here for a long time I finally signed up. I used to post at the "other" forum but the cyber bullying that occurred when anyone posted an opinion that was anything but gushing was insufferable. This thread, that critically discusses an issue, is what I had been looking for.

I am sitting on two reservations (6 and 7 at an East Coast dealer). I turned three friends on to the Model 3 and they also reserved. At the moment I am leaning towards one purchase and one cancellation. Two of my friends are leaning towards cancellation and one is fairly sure he will purchase.

The one I may cancel is for me, the other is for a family member. I will decided based on a number of factors that are important to me.The lack of a HUD, the exterior styling, and the spartan interior and ugly screen don't bother me much but trunk opening size is important. I do not need dual motors so its delayed introduction is not an issue. I was disappointed that a pay for lifetime supercharging option has not been announced and that does contribute to the cancel side of the ledger. Ergonomics will be an important consideration. Since we will use the car extensive for leisure travel across the USA, how widespread the superchargers and service centers are when it's time to order will be important. We don't want to find ourselves hundreds of miles from a service center if we breakdown. An option for 300 mile range would be a big plus. Finally I would like to drive it in Mexico, however speed bumps there can be small mountains so ground clearance and angle of attack and retreat are important. I am encouraged Tesla is now selling in Mexico so they may have addressed that issue.

The health of Tesla Motors will also play a role as the warranty is useless if the company is not there to honor it. The cost of insurance and repairs are also factors I'll be looking at.

My family member has fewer concerns with only ergonomics and the ability to mount a roof rack as potential deal breakers.

 

[NoMoGas]

My death. I have 2 reserved in CA.... existing owner

 

[alevek]

An Audi e-Tron Sportback...

 

[Jayc]

I would cancel right away if within the next two years, another manufacturer comes up with an alternative EV ready for production that is better than Model 3 in performance, range, exterior/interior design, reliability and charging infrastructure for roughly same price range.

If would CONSIDER cancelling if one or two of those parameters are bettered but the rest are on par or slightly inferior compared to Model 3.

At the moment however, the likelihood of either of those scenarios happening is close to NIL.

 

[arnis]

I would consider cancelling if BMW came out with 3-series EV before 2020, that has 50-70kWh battery pack, RWD/AWD, has a moonroof with a shade and offers the same warranty/service as it offers for all ICE versions of 3-series (100 000km all inclusive service and 200 000km all inclusive warranty). And is cooperating with SC network (I'm ready to pay for use).

 

[internalaudit]

An Audi e-Tron Sportback...

with or without the griller? j/k

=====

Actually, the Germans are getting in on this BEV bandwagon and hopefully their BEVs will not be similar to their ICE vehicles with repairs costing a fortune after the warranty period. Hopefully the German car makers weaknesses were in the engine and transmission designs.

 

[gowthamn]

I hope the interior is comparable to the C class. And that road noise is reduced.

 

[Jayc]

with or without the griller? j/k

=====
Hopefully the German car makers weaknesses were in the engine and transmission designs.

A colleague with an Audi A5 quattro frequently complains of build issues, dash switching off while driving and abs indicators flashing randomly - so weaknesses are everywhere, not just engine and transmissions.

 

[dsvick]

I did cancel it. Because I got my Model S and I don't think I'll ever want the 3 after this car.

(actually i still have the reservation but it will be for my brother now)

You know that you can't transfer them to other people?

Yea obviously its still under my name

Tesla says you can transfer reservations "with prior permission". I'd certainly give them a call and see if they'd let you. Given that you're only cancelling because you bought a Model S instead and the alternative is cancelling I wouldn't be surprised if they let you.

 

[dsvick]

Well, just got word that my 2nd co-worker canceled his reservation. That leaves me the sole reservation holder in my department that I know of. I know you can't extrapolate meaningful data from a group of only 3 people but just for the fun of it, that would mean 400,000 deposits would translate into 132,000 sales. I'm sure my example will now be picked up by some of the stock shorts and turned into analyst article somewhere.

My brother, who didn't have a reservation, placed one a couple of months ago after I told him about mine. So, using my even smaller sample size, they've probably doubled their reservation count since the reveal.

 

[internalaudit]

A colleague with an Audi A5 quattro frequently complains of build issues, dash switching off while driving and abs indicators flashing randomly - so weaknesses are everywhere, not just engine and transmissions.

If that's the case, the Germans have not gotten rid of their electric gremlins. Maybe a Tesla M3 will be much more reliable than those then.

I'll probably go with the Dual Motors now that a job I applied for was cancelled that would have required me to drive about 90 miles round trip each day.