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What would you like Elon to discuss on Tuesday?

What would you like Elon to discuss on Tuesday?

  • Current/near-term Model 3 production rate

    Votes: 39 42.9%
  • Long-term Model 3 production/demand level

    Votes: 10 11.0%
  • Subsequent Gigafactories - Count/Location/Timeline

    Votes: 37 40.7%
  • Subsequent Gigafactories - Alien Dreadnaught

    Votes: 15 16.5%
  • Powerwall/Powerpack production ramp

    Votes: 26 28.6%
  • Solar Roof production ramp

    Votes: 23 25.3%
  • Tesla Energy profitability

    Votes: 29 31.9%
  • Supplier relationships/risks post delayed ramp

    Votes: 7 7.7%
  • Federal tax credit phaseout timing

    Votes: 16 17.6%
  • Model Y

    Votes: 17 18.7%
  • Semi

    Votes: 10 11.0%
  • Other: Please discuss below

    Votes: 4 4.4%

  • Total voters
    91
  • Poll closed .

ValueAnalyst

Closed
Aug 25, 2016
5,371
11,124
World
I went back and forth on making this one a wish or prediction list, so please feel free to discuss both below the poll.

The maximum number of selections is limited to three in order to align high interest with realistic time limit.
 
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JRP3

Hyperactive Member
Aug 20, 2007
20,294
46,797
Central New York
Definitely like to hear their projections on the future of Alien Dreadnought since the recent switch back to increased humans on the line. Do they still see a clear path to high speed production and what timeline? Also voted for TE profits and SR production. As a fourth I'd be very interested in the Tesla Semi production timeline and how the Semi test runs between the factories have been going. Elon tweeted about the first run leaving the GF but I don't think he ever followed up with their arrival at Fremont. Some bears of course are sure this means they never made it :rolleyes:
 

ValueAnalyst

Closed
Aug 25, 2016
5,371
11,124
World
I hope many Tesla Energy questions make it to the list on Tuesday. Lots to discuss on ramp/profitability and lessons learned in Australia and Puerto Rico that will shape longer term strategy. Tesla Energy is deeply under-appreciated and misunderstood by market participants.
 
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aubreymcfato

Supporting Member
Sep 16, 2016
1,145
8,951
Italy
I agree.
TE is good on many levels: nobody is talking about it, it's really disruptive (see South Australia), it's very good for the environment (better storage demands more solar/wind generation), thus is good on PR (meaning public relations: but also Puerto Rico is good for PR).
I think it would change the message a bit on a true, hugely underestimated disrtuptive and world-changing green technology.
A lot of people see in Tesla just fancy cars for rich-spoiled guys, and as you've seen this has piled up on Tesla in the recent weeks.
 

EinSV

Active Member
Feb 6, 2016
4,330
21,540
NorCal
Adding to the comments above, I would love to hear an update on Tesla's long term plan and projections for the storage business, ideally including a rough idea of target margins and revenues or GWh.
 

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
62,629
Ithaca, NY, USA
The gossip indicates that the backlog of orders on Powerwall and Powerpack is *even larger* than the backlog on Model 3. Calculations from leaks indicate that Tesla can make about 328 MWh worth of cells per year for Puerto Rico right now, but the demand from Puerto Rico *alone* is larger than that.

So I want to know what the major bottlenecks are on Powerwall/Powerpack ramp-up and what is being done to address them.
 

dhanson865

Active Member
Feb 16, 2013
4,596
7,185
Knoxville, Tennessee
I didn't pick other in the poll, but part of me wants to ask

other: When will "short range" Model 3 pack see delivery start?

and then I see talk of battery production not keeping up with demand on the Tesla Energy side. I know it's a different chemistry/pack. Then I realize they'll be pumping out packs for cars soon enough at a rate that will outstrip Fremont's ability to build cars and I wonder why I bothered to ask when the short range pack will come out.

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain...
 
  • Funny
Reactions: EinSV

Brando

Active Member
Sep 27, 2016
2,916
2,035
Bainbridge Island, WA
strongly suggest people learn to read SEC documents - a little practise, look up some terms, you can do it.

http://ir.tesla.com/sec.cfm?view=all

You'll be pleasantly surprised how many details you will learn.
- strongly suggest reading the complete report from below link.
Tesla - Current Report

for example from 2018 Q1 report

ADVANCING SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

While Model 3 is clearly in the spotlight both externally and internally, 2018 should be a very important year for our energy storage business. We continue to aim for a three-fold increase in MWh deployed for our energy storage products this year.

In Q1, energy storage deployments grew 161% from Q4 2017 to 373 MWh, which includes the 129 MWh South Australia project that was installed last year with final commercial transfer occurring in Q1. Electric utilities and power producers around the globe are increasingly appreciating the value proposition of our Powerpack storage systems based not only on economic benefits but also on the operational benefits of faster response time and greater reliability of the electric grid. In addition, we deployed a record number of residential Powerwall systems in Q1. In spite of the significant growth of Powerwall deliveries, our backlog in Q1 continued to grow.

We also deployed 76 MW of solar energy generation systems in Q1. Cash and loan system sales made up 66% of residential deployments in the quarter, up from 31% in Q1 2017 and 9% in Q1 2016. Due to higher upfront cash sales, lower emphasis on less profitable commercial projects and consolidation of our sales channels, our solar business had slightly positive cash flow throughout 2017. We are expecting cash flow from our solar business to remain at this level in the first half of 2018 and then improve significantly thereafter.

Solar deployments have declined over the last few quarters due in large part to our strategic decision to shutter certain sales channels and market segments. These decisions had a negative impact on our deployments but created a positive impact on our cash generation. Furthermore, a significant part of our customer base is waiting for a Powerwall before getting their solar panels installed. We continue to prioritize Powerwall deliveries when they are sold together with our retrofit solar panels, and this should have a positive impact on our solar deployments in upcoming quarters.

Our Solar Roof facility in Buffalo continued to ramp in Q1. We are working to enhance the product design and manufacturing process in order to improve the customer experience while reducing manufacturing cost and achieving high levels of quality. Production of Solar Roofs should accelerate significantly in the second half of this year.

Over the past couple of quarters, we have increased efforts to sell energy generation and storage systems in Tesla stores. We are seeing clear signs of a pickup in order rates for retrofit solar installations through Tesla stores. These are now being offered in over 90 Tesla stores in the US, and we continue to expand the offering to the rest of our stores across the US.
 
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winfield100

Supporting Member
Feb 16, 2013
2,889
10,696
vivant non-traveler
Tesla Energy, Powerpack and Powerwall, deployments, regarding making the island of Puerto Rico 1 large VPP (Virtual power plant) a massive leap into the future and proof of scalability
100's of micro grids loosely coupled into 1 giant VPP for entire island
First Ta'u (demo) Kaua'i, Australia, now Puerto Rico. (ok, i have a loose definition of VPP's, but they are loosely coupled)
Tesla has ‘about 11,000’ energy storage projects underway in Puerto Rico, says Elon Musk
 
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JRP3

Hyperactive Member
Aug 20, 2007
20,294
46,797
Central New York
Because behaving like a total ass towards investors while your company is 100% dependent on the lifeline they provide and after having broken every single production/feature promise you ever gave is something to admire....

Outside of this fandom-blinded cave of enthusiasts the stock took a nosedive because to everyone without a Musk-shrine at home it looked as if he was close to losing it.....
Only people who apparently have no understanding of how the CEO of TSLA operates were upset. Those people probably shouldn't be invested in a company they don't understand.
 

ValueAnalyst

Closed
Aug 25, 2016
5,371
11,124
World
Tesla energy: great to see traction starting. Will TE be at 1 billion per quarter in 2018 or 2019? With GF ramping up, will margins get close to 20% in 2019, or longer term?
Will Tesla he led off on 200,000 in Q2?
Based on high ASP, will model 3 margins be above 25 or even 30% in Q3 or Q4?
Will you break ground in Shanghai plant in 2018? Based on model 3 margins you don’t need a cap raise, but would you do one anyhow, to grow faster?
Will AP dev speed up as model 3 picks up pace and your data gathering is improved?

@dc_h carrying your post here. All fair questions; thank you.

I have TE at $1B per quarter at 20% gross margin in 2Q19. I do think Model 3 margins will surprise to the upside, but Tesla may choose to lower ASP as weekly production ramps beyond 6,000/wk in 2019, especially with Standard coming to market later this year or early next. Some positive news on China Gigafactory in recent days, but let's see what Elon says at tomorrow's meeting on this; I suspect groundbreaking later in 2018 or early 2019. I don't think Tesla will need to raise equity capital, but maybe it could raise non-dilutive debt capital to accelerate growth, if market cap rises sufficiently and grows the equity cushion for better borrowing terms than today's near-sighted junk rating. I'm hoping for an accelerated pace of improvements to Autopilot, but regulation is an area of concern, and most investors do not expect FSD until after 2022.
 
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