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What would you think about a small Generation 4 Tesla EV for $20,000 in about 2020?

Discussion in 'Future Cars' started by Benz, Jul 1, 2013.

  1. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    After the Generation 3, what will be next?

    What would you think about a small Generation 4 Tesla EV for $20,000 in about 2020?

    About the size of the Chevrolet Spark EV?

    But built with the much better Tesla technology.

    That would really sell in huge numbers.
     
  2. ElSupreme

    ElSupreme Model S 03182

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    It may happen. I think it would hinge on how much Tesla sells outside of the USA. If that portion of their sales is >30% then I could see it. If they primarily stay in the USA then I doubt it. Micro-cars are becoming more popular over here, but I don't see Tesla going there before hitting Trucks, or small sports cars in the USA.
     
  3. efusco

    efusco Moderator - Model S & X forums

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    Esp. if range was good enough that my kids could use it as a college commuter vehicle, I think it would be great for them.
     
  4. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    Tesla will sell more EV's outside the US. At some point in time (before 2020) the US sales of Tesla EV's will be only a third (or even less than that) of their total worldwide sales. Micro-cars are popular everywhere, just look at the sales figures. for example, the VW Up is a sales hit. And there will be trucks and sports cars as well, but why not build them simultaneously, as Tesla will be opening more car plants because of the success that it will generate with it's technology. And money is not going to be a problem for Tesla Motors.
     
  5. Rifleman

    Rifleman Now owns 2 Model S's!!!

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    I dont think a microcar is a good 4th gen, but perhaps a compact would be (this is assuming that gen 3 will be a midsize) The compact car segment is much more popular in the US than the microcar. Also, the spark ev is allready under 20k after tax credits, and by 2020 I would think that battery tech would have progressed enough to put it over 200 miles range at that price point. Tesla is good at offering the cars that nobody else is building, and doing it better than anyone else thought possible. The micro car ev segment is already filling up.
     
  6. Vger

    Vger Active Member

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    They already have a toe in that water with the Smart EV. If Daimler was smart, they would be more actively promoting "power by Tesla." With the current TSLA buzz, it might sell faster. Yes, it is only an urban microcar, but perhaps it will give us some clues to demand.
     
  7. ElSupreme

    ElSupreme Model S 03182

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    The current Generation Smart EV is not "Powered by Tesla". So promoting that wouldn't turn out that well for anyone.
     
  8. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    The platform of the Generation 3 Tesla EV will be smaller than the platform of the Tesla Model S/X (Generation 2 Tesla EV).

    As long as the platform of the Generation 4 Tesla EV is smaller than the platform of the Generation 3 Tesla EV, that will do just fine. Because the most important thing would be to go to an even cheaper price point than the price point of the Generation 3 Tesla EV. And this is to let Tesla Motors gain a much larger annual market share. As the number of people who can afford only a $20,000 car is higher than the number of people who can afford a $35,000 as well, you see.
     
  9. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Member

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    The smart ED (electric drive) is much too expensive in my opinion. Here in Germany it costs 19 k€ if you lease the battery(65 € per month), or 24k€ with the battery.

    20,000 US $ would be more like it, considering the small range it has.

    Room for improvement there.
     
  10. anticitizen13.7

    anticitizen13.7 Enemy of the Status Quo

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    I'd love to see Tesla build something the size of a Honda Fit in the future. Small, fast, and nimble would appeal to a lot of people.
     
  11. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    I'm not sure. While I'm fairly certain Tesla can make a compelling subcompact I have to ask the question - why? It would break their stated goal of making luxury/premium cars. That segment has lots of competition. It also allows Tesla to stand out as the EV maker of superior compelling cars since everyone else is doing the cheapest EV possible. The upside of leaving the competition the subcompact/compact segment is that they have a segment to focus their energies on and leave Tesla alone to continue to grow and thrive.

    While I wouldn't mind a super inexpensive Tesla, I just can't see a reason for Tesla to go there.

    Do what you do best and don't spread yourself too thin.
     
  12. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    Biggest problem is micro-cars are just not very popular in the US (Tesla's biggest market for the forseeable future).
     
  13. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

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    Agree, just like BMW, Audi and MB. Tesla should Leave the low end to others
     
  14. lloyds

    lloyds Member

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    I'm a buyer if its range extends over 125 miles per charge.
     
  15. TonyWilliams

    TonyWilliams Active Member

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    No thanks to a cheap, tiny Tesla.
     
  16. ElSupreme

    ElSupreme Model S 03182

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    I have a strong feeling that Electric cars will have a paradigm shift on automobile purchases.

    First there are operating savings over an ICE. This allows the purchase price to climb.
    EVs should have a much longer lifetime. This should expand the used market, which lowers pressure for lower priced new cars.

    Sure I think EVs will get cheaper, but over a longer period of time as batteries get lighter and cheaper. I think todays LEAF, Spark, and Focus EV, will be the lowest points in the EV market for quite a while. With the obvious exceptions of niche auto companies like Smart.

    As EVs become fully adopted I expect a corresponding rise in average vehicle purchase price. And three to five years trailing I expect demand for low cost new cars to ease (further raising average new car purchase price), as mechanically reliable EVs start hitting the used market. And 10 years trailing that the average lifespan of vehicles increasing 5 years or so.

    Granted this phase shift is going to take 20+ years. I am not expecting a sharp break in auto sales, unless we have a very serious oil crisis.

    I personally have no problem with Tesla going 'down market'.
     
  17. Alpha

    Alpha Member

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    I wouldn't mind the 500E with double the range. In fact I was considering getting one as it is. Too bad I can't actually buy one cause they only sell them in CA ($#!+ty compliance car.) Also the CEO of Chrysler really turned me off when he publicly bashed EVs as the wrong solution. Guess Tesla will just have to eat more of their lunch.
     
  18. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    Where has Tesla ever said that's their goal? Elon has said they wouldn't make a bad car, but that's not the same as only making luxury cars. Only making luxury cars is actually at odds with Elon's goal of shifting society to electric cars.

    That said, I think around $30,000 is as low as is ever going to be necessary. When you take lifetime fuel costs into consideration (~100k miles) that puts it on par with a $15,000 ICE.
     
  19. Alpha

    Alpha Member

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    Agree, in fact they have stated the opposite in many cases. (Pick up trucks for example)
    In fact Tesla's master plan is to get everyone in an EV!
     
  20. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    Tesla's stated mission is to make compelling cars. You can do that in every segment and command higher prices than your competitors.
     

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