What's After The Model 3?

[GoTslaGo]

It makes sense to use the same model 3 platform and make some variants. Thinking convertible, hatchback, etc.

The last thing I wanna see (facetiously) two years after launch is 1 million of the exact same car driving around everywhere. Can you imagine the confusion in the parking lot. We'll want some variety.

It'll be just like the Model T's again! Except back then the only color you could get was black.

 

[pr0teu5]

It may have generated high margins in it's first iteration (although I doubt it) when it was based on another vehicle. Designing and building a low volume ultra-niche vehicle from CAD design through die and stamping and assembly line--- the math would be much tougher.

I have to say that I disagree with your statement pretty emphatically. What I don't think this line of thinking accounts for is the fact many of the most expensive components in this boutique super car will still be mass produced and can take advantage of the economies of scale. Batteries are batteries and motors are motors, and Tesla will be producing both on a massive scale. Indeed the batteries and motors can and probably will be shared with less expensive models. The only things that won't benefit are body panels etc, which shouldn't account for that much.

So imagine a Model that uses more or less the same batteries as a Model S, the same motors - though perhaps 4 rather than 2, but with a base price anywhere from $150k - $180k. In my estimation a profit margin of 40% or so would not be unreasonable, which is obviously pretty high.

 

[James Anders]

I suppose the next iteration of the Model S and X will have the new interior and controls philosophy of the Model 3.

Like a landscape oriented display and minimalist IP.

 

[eye.surgeon]

I have to say that I disagree with your statement pretty emphatically. What I don't think this line of thinking accounts for is the fact many of the most expensive components in this boutique super car will still be mass produced and can take advantage of the economies of scale. Batteries are batteries and motors are motors, and Tesla will be producing both on a massive scale. Indeed the batteries and motors can and probably will be shared with less expensive models. The only things that won't benefit are body panels etc, which shouldn't account for that much.

So imagine a Model that uses more or less the same batteries as a Model S, the same motors - though perhaps 4 rather than 2, but with a base price anywhere from $150k - $180k. In my estimation a profit margin of 40% or so would not be unreasonable, which is obviously pretty high.

If you don't think that entirely new die stampings, a new frame, and an entirely new manufacturing line with robots isn't going to be tremendously expensive, you don't understand the industry. that's a lot of investment to serve a very small segment of the marketplace and that's the reason why Tesla used a Lotus in the first place. The volumes didn't support making their own.

I have to say that I disagree with your statement pretty emphatically. What I don't think this line of thinking accounts for is the fact many of the most expensive components in this boutique super car will still be mass produced and can take advantage of the economies of scale. Batteries are batteries and motors are motors, and Tesla will be producing both on a massive scale. Indeed the batteries and motors can and probably will be shared with less expensive models. The only things that won't benefit are body panels etc, which shouldn't account for that much.

So imagine a Model that uses more or less the same batteries as a Model S, the same motors - though perhaps 4 rather than 2, but with a base price anywhere from $150k - $180k. In my estimation a profit margin of 40% or so would not be unreasonable, which is obviously pretty high.

You're underestimating the cost of designing and building a completely new car, even with drivetrain commonalities. The original roadster was done to prove the viability of EVs, not because the world needs a replacement for ICE supercars. Time will tell. I wouldn't be sad if I was wrong

 

[pr0teu5]

If you don't think that entirely new die stampings, a new frame, and an entirely new manufacturing line with robots isn't going to be tremendously expensive, you don't understand the industry. that's a lot of investment to serve a very small segment of the marketplace and that's the reason why Tesla used a Lotus in the first place. The volumes didn't support making their own.

There are a few things wrong with this I think. Though Tesla did initially use the Lotus chassis for the low Roadster Elon said on many occasions that so many external parts had to be changed that it would have been cheaper to completely design and manufacture the car from scratch. So even with the low volumes they had they were able to make a modestly profitable vehicle at $110k. I find it hard to believe then that they would not be able to make a farily significant profit on a vehicle that can very reasonably command nearly twice that asking price.

In addition, I think the argument that the stamping, robots, and production, on such a low volume vehicle make high margins impossible is a bit contradictory. I obviously understand that these thing will cost more relatively than a higher output car, but if the volumes are so small then the lines need far fewer people and machines to operate. Indeed even the stampings could probably be made on the same lines as the S/X if the volumes of the car they ship are low enough.

You're underestimating the cost of designing and building a completely new car, even with drivetrain commonalities. The original roadster was done to prove the viability of EVs, not because the world needs a replacement for ICE supercars. Time will tell. I wouldn't be sad if I was wrong

I think you tend to overestimate these things by a fair amount. I think you might misunderstand the argument as well. No one is saying that a supercar will be a huge moneymaker for Tesla as a company. Hell, even if the margin was 80% or 90% or something similarly impossible they amount they would end up making in total would still be peanuts compared to the 3 and S/X due to low volume.

We all know why the Roadster was built. Is such a thing strictly necessary anymore; of course not, but then after the success of the 3/Y nothing really is. All I'm saying is that such a project would attract attention, and easily be able to make more than enough money to justify itself even at low per annum outputs.

 

[Model 3]

And they can try out new things there that would be too expensive to deploy on a high volume vehicle (until the kinks are worked out)

Exactly! This is what I think they will need the RoadsterNG for. And it is fun, and will generate profit, and is a nice "hello" car for the brand.

 

[ohmman]

Exactly! This is what I think they will need the RoadsterNG for. And it is fun, and will generate profit, and is a nice "hello" car for the brand.

..and my garage..

 

[omarsultan]

...that's the reason why Tesla used a Lotus in the first place. The volumes didn't support making their own.

Common misconception about the amount of investment in the Roadster: "...we recently counted how many parts the two cars shared and the total number was under 7% by parts count. If you were to analyze it by parts value, the number would be even smaller."

Mythbusters Part 2: The Tesla Roadster is not a Converted Lotus Elise

BTW, the reason to do another Roadster is to maintain a halo car that demonstrates Tesla's technical prowess, keeps the public's interest and pull in buyers for more accessible models.

As others have noted, Tesla has a pretty good parts bin to choose from. Imagine the Model 3 chassis, large battery pack, AWD with the rear drive unit from the Model S P, and CF body panels like the original Roadster.

 

[Grendal]

I'm with the early posters.
Model Y
Model R Roadster - This can be either a 2 seater halo supercar. Or it can be a Porsche 911 fighter with 4 seats.
I'd like to see a truck based on both the S and the 3 skateboard.

I'm really thinking that the Model Y might be delayed significantly for the same reason as the Model X. Demand for the Model 3 is overwhelming. The battery factory is limited in how many packs it can make and it really looks like the 3 will use every one of them. Tesla might need to wait for gigafactory 2 to fulfill the Model Y future orders.

 

[voyager]

Well, I have a few suggestions... Especially for a company that's serious about next-gen transportation.
Electric drive is soooo "just the 1st step". Impossible to get thru to the big honcho however...

 

[marcon]

Model R roadster/supercar

1. Might happen for market introduction of new unproven expensive technology that initially doesn't scale well, i.e. New battery chemistry of solid state.
2. Halo car.
3. Because Elon wants one.

Model T truck (unlikely name due to ford)

1. Basis for a new commercial vehicle platform, if fleet make enough.
2. Based on skateboard platform for next gen Model S.

 

[jeewee3000]

We don't really have to speculate that much. Following Elon closely throughout the years, it's obvious that he never lets his ideas go, he just adapts them to the real world (meaning his projects get postponed a lot, but he always stays true to his vision).

The next generation Tesla Roadster is coming, however it will not arrive before 2020 or later. (Musk said 2019/2020, so I added Elon-time). Most likely it will look similar to the first Roadster but with perfected performance and range with the technologies available at the time of design/production (= lower drag coefficient, better battery, drivetrain and software). The whole "after Ludicrous mode comes maximum plaid" -joke was made by Elon in reference to the next-gen Roadster.

Only since the reveal of the Model 3 has Elon spoken about the model Y, as someone posted here before me. It is coming, and it will be a model 3 variant, similar to what the Model X is to the Model S. So expect a model 3 that's a little more bulky with more room and falcon wing doors. (See the tweet by Elon where he confirms model 3 and Y, and he states that only one of them will have falcon wing doors. We know for a fact that this isn't the 3, so it's the Y).

The true question is, what's after the Model S, X, 3, Y, next-gen Roadster and the possible (but not really confirmed by Elon, only speculated about by him) pickup truck model P?

An overhaul of all those models in order of original release is unlikely IMHO, because Elon also hinted that he doesn't want Tesla to have "Build models" (like say a BMW 5-series of 2008-2011 for example, which has a particular styling and performance). He stated no real drastic change would come to any model, he would just keep improving all cars at all times. So the best time to buy one is always "now".

Honestly I think Elon will move his attention towards SpaceX fully after all the above models have been released. By that time EV's should have become quite standard, given the competition will also flood the market with EV's. So his goals with TSLA will have been accomplished. Hopefully TSLA won't act like Apple when that time comes, and start to ride on previous success...

 

[Stealth MD]

Elon has said in the past that the next sports car will not have supercar price (as the original car did), but it will have supercar performance i.e. "Maximum plaid."

Below is a link from a few years back which illustrates Tesla's plans to do a next generation Roadster and a smaller SUV (Model Y) in parellel. Obviously, the timing is way off, but I think the plan still remains...

Tesla Plans Two More Launches: A Smaller Crossover SUV, Sports Car

 

[ohmman]

Hopefully TSLA won't act like Apple when that time comes, and start to ride on previous success...

Hey, they might introduce new tire colors every year. That's not innovating?!

(disclosure: I say this as a pretty heavy AAPL investor who thinks they still have a lot of growth potential)

 

[Model 3]

Elon has said in the past that the next sports car will not have supercar price (as the original car did), but it will have supercar performance i.e. "Maximum plaid."

Below is a link from a few years back which illustrates Tesla's plans to do a next generation Roadster and a smaller SUV (Model Y) in parellel. Obviously, the timing is way off, but I think the plan still remains...

Tesla Plans Two More Launches: A Smaller Crossover SUV, Sports Car

“In a lot of respects, it’ll be a scaled down Model S,” Musk told Wired. “Something like 20 to 25 percent smaller than the Model S.” It will also include the same hatchback design as Tesla’s current sedan.

Well, it do look a lot like a scaled down Model S, but they lost the hatchback on the way

Btw: "the next sports car will not have supercar price". Does this mean that they are thinking about something like this car?

http://test-drivez.com/image.php?pi...y/models/smart-roadster/smart-roadster-05.jpg

 

[Stealth MD]

Well, it do look a lot like a scaled down Model S, but they lost the hatchback on the way

Btw: "the next sports car will not have supercar price". Does this mean that they are thinking about something like this car?

http://test-drivez.com/image.php?pi...y/models/smart-roadster/smart-roadster-05.jpg

I hope not. I want a hardtop convertible w/4 seats lol.

 

[richkae]

Clearly the crossover version of the Model 3 is next.

After that Tesla should make ( not in order ):
1. a pickup truck
2. a more affordable electric car with 200 mile range. ( In the $15000 ballpark )
3. a commercial van for small businesses/deliveries
4. a new Model S/X with the technology improvements from the Model 3

 

[EinSV]

OK I'll play.

IMO, the next 5 Tesla vehicles are likely to be:

1. Model Y (2018-19)
2. Roadster (2019-20)
3. Full-size pickup truck (2020-21)
4. Model 2 (smaller $28-30K Audi A3/BMW 1 and 2-series competitor) (2020-21)
5. BMW 5 series/ Mercedes E-class/A6 competitor (2020-21)

Model Y is a given.

Roadster will be a halo car that has faster 0-60 time than fastest production ICE cars (including fastest Bugatti) to continue to prove the superiority of BEV over ICE. Tesla hopefully will also produce a roadster model at a lower price point eventually.

Truck will require large battery pack for towing but should be achievable given Gigafactory economics and high average sales prices for full size pickups.

"Secret Master Plan" calls for constantly pushing into lower price points as it becomes feasible. Next move to a less expensive model should be achievable 3-4 years after Model 3 launch. This will make buying or leasing a Tesla affordable for millions more customers.

Another premium model priced and sized between the Model S and Model 3 will become an obvious choice as Tesla continues to upgrade the Model S. This mid-level premium car (and possibly a CUV on the same platform) can generate profits to support the Secret Master Plan of pushing into lower priced markets.

Those are my best guesses.

 

[DQ10]

An suv on the 3 platform that could sleep 2..