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What's on the horizon/Refresh?

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Latest theory is that Model X and S will receive interior update to make them more like the design of the Model 3. Some call this an upgrade, others prefer the current classic interior.

Believe they will continue to bring the S and X more upscale, with additional features to justify the additional cost over the Model 3

Customers rarely know, much in advance, when an upgrade is coming. Tesla keeps this under wraps until the cars begin to roll down the assembly line.

Next big upgrade seems to be the release of the much faster CPU to make autopilot even better. While it is currently in on road testing and data accumulation, there is no way to know for sure the release date.
 
I'd expect the next S/X to include the 2170 cells and a material upgrade to range. Tesla already down-rated the Model 3 range to 310 so that it would not outshine the S 100D flagship. There's got to be a material range upside opportunity in Model S involving the 2170 cells; surely that is coming as a way to put the other luxury manufacturers on their heels as they are busily trying to fight the last EV war. The engineers at Porsche/BMW/VW will be absolutely stymied by a 400-500mi Model S. "Back to the drawing board fellas!"
 
Latest theory is that Model X and S will receive interior update to make them more like the design of the Model 3. Some call this an upgrade, others prefer the current classic interior.

Believe they will continue to bring the S and X more upscale, with additional features to justify the additional cost over the Model 3

Customers rarely know, much in advance, when an upgrade is coming. Tesla keeps this under wraps until the cars begin to roll down the assembly line.

Next big upgrade seems to be the release of the much faster CPU to make autopilot even better. While it is currently in on road testing and data accumulation, there is no way to know for sure the release date.
I really hope that’s not true, the Model 3 interior is the definition of a cheap interior.
Definitely will not be buying a new Model S if the interior resembles the model 3
 
So 1-4 are certain rumors? What is a certain rumor? ;)

My speculation is all explained in the post and thread. :) Every item is based on rumors, leaks and analysis, it doesn't come from thin air, though of course it can be wrong or representative of plans that since then have changed for example. It is certainly wholly speculative.

But basically yes, out of the list of five first four can be IMO considered pretty much a guarantee on the level listed, behind each entry is of course nuance, speculation for which I explained in my linked post and that speculation can certainly be wrong. The last entry (HUD) we had rumblings in the past, but so much time has passed since then, who knows there things stand there, so it is relatively speaking definitely the most uncertain of the bunch and thus I marked it as such.

As always, we shall see what happens. I was the one here with the unpopular opinion that Model X would get an adaptive spoiler and use Drive PX instead of MobilEye back in the day too. ;) Those got a lot of pushback too. Always in flux is the future. Schedules especially. We shall see.
My latest analysis here:

Rumor summary: Blind-spot cameras, Rain sensing, Level 3, Big battery, Interior/HUD post #202

TL;DR summary:

1st: Supercharger V3
2nd: Autopilot HW3
3rd: 2170 battery in Model S/X
4th: Model S/X interior refresh
5th: HUD (uncertain)

model_s_ccs_mockup-jpg.351151


hud-jpg.267636


Tesla-Model-SX-design-refresh-electrek-1.jpg
 
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Tesla's R&D team has a lot on their plate with development of Y, pickup, semi and Roadster 2.0, plus continuing to expand manufacturing capacity and begin building another factory in China, coupled with the intent to maintain profitability quarter-to-quarter. While there will be some S/3/X changes, profitability may be a bigger driver for the changes, to reduce vehicle costs.

Tesla still evidently believes they will start seeing FSD-like functionality in the next 12-24 months, and when they get close to FSD, there will be an opportunity to redesign the cabin interiors for more functionality for all passengers and de-emphasize the driving support in the front seats.

What seems likely:
  • V3 supercharging - which will likely require a new battery pack for S/X, using the same technology in the 3. This could reduce the battery cost, potentially increasing profit margins, lowering sales price, decreasing weight, increasing range/performance, …
  • AP3 (HW3) - significantly faster processor (which will be retrofitted for free to AP2.x vehicles with FSD purchased), and possibly incorporating sensor improvements since AP2 was introduced 2 years ago
  • Continued improvement to software capabilities - media player, navigation, AP, smartphone - which will be deployed to all current vehicles, dependent upon configuration
  • Other smaller changes/improvements - especially if it simplifies manufacturing or reduces manufacturing costs (increased profits or lower sales price)
  • Accelerated expansion of the supercharger network to support the increased sales of 3
  • Significant improvements to delivery and post-sales support through increased automation (service scheduling) and deploying more mobile service vans (which can be added more quickly and at a lower cost than expanding service centers)
While a major refresh of S/X is possible - and wouldn't be unprecedented for Tesla to surprise us with that, it seems more likely we'll see smaller improvements to S/X this year while Tesla continues to adjust to the impact of increased sales & customers, adding more models/factory, and maintains profitability.
 
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