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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jhm, Jun 6, 2017.
Musk hinted that something else would be revealed at the Semi unveiling. What is it?
Model Y prototype maybe ... ?
If you have a specific idea for something else, please post.
Announce specific gigafactory location(s), at least one - where they will build the semi.
Perhaps, impressive charging or battery swap plans, or, first several semis will be part of Tesla's new delivery fleet ready to start hauling new Model 3s across the country by year end.
he will appear on stage from a tunnel underground, on a lift powered by solar energy
I think it's the Supercharger hinted in a patent application, the charging is handled from below the vehicle. Only for the Semi. Multiple automatic charge ports for highly efficient charging?
Agree its probably something supercharging related. Or else something autopilot related specific to the Semi.
Autonomous semis are already running between Sparks, NV and Fremont, CA.
Tesla semi is not for sale.
Instead, Tesla will offer freight transportation services.
PS. This is similar to the Tesla Network offering passenger transport
It seems to me that for a commercial truck EV to be economically viable (given that the vehicle cost will likely be significantly more than a comparable ICE semi truck) it is going to have to be able to charge quickly and that will require a much higher charging rate than the existing Supercharger network.
In addition, eventually commercial trucks will drive themselves, no human driver required (saving a lot of money for the fleet operators) but current laws don't allow that. So maybe there will be some unexpected announcement relating to how Tesla plans to address that issue.
Elon comes on stage with a semi.
I don't think it will be that, BUT, that is an interesting proposition. Imagine if they were to offer "AUTONOMOUS" freight transportation services with pickup and delivery, all without a driver. That could provide a much needed revenue stream...
Semi architecture can also double as a locomotive. (and will be used to transport parts between Reno and Fremont)
Here's why I voted for higher-density supercharging.
Elon basically ruled out higher density batteries when he talked about efficiency required for electric airplanes (still a ways off before they can produce much higher than currently at scale).
His body language implied that the other announcement might have wider applicability than merely semi's.
He didn't otherwise talk much about faster supercharging (I don't think).
He specifically addressed Model Y.
Pickup might be possible, but it seems unlikely given their inability to produce at scale yet.
Autonomous/self-owned fleet of semi's unlikely because he talked about working with fleet operators.
It's automotive related because of the context in which he brought it up.
HIgher-rate supercharging makes a lot of sense. It's essential for larger batteries and good news for the rest of the Tesla fleet. I realize there's a vast series of posts on TMC on whether higher-rate supercharging is possible on the current batteries. And, I'm by no means a battery scientist. However, I would not be surprised if they announced faster supercharging for all 100s and all Model 3's akin to the speed bump that the original 85B batteries saw versus the 85A batteries. That was almost a 33% decrease in required time to half-full.
Innovative Supercharger stations for Tesla Semi with either snake charger or battery swap.
High speed charging. A large Truck with 500kWh+ on board will need that 350KW charging solution.
Trucks fleets using electricity are a good thing but have about 10+ year for 18-wheeler proliferation.
More likely fleets will be small trucks (UPS/USPS/DHL) for known fleet routes.
Power needed to recharge one truck is the same as three superchargers and siting for truck recharging needs to be partnered with Flying-J or other trucking service company for 'pull in servicing'. Some of that stuff may need running of high-voltage lines and substation permitting and Buildout. What would probably happen first is 80-120KW recharging for overnight truck parking. followed by something faster for 24-7 runs of autonomous trucking. However, an autonomous truck doesn't need to run 24/7 - even 16 hours a day would still be more driving than a human driver legally can do without double-teaming.
Is there any possibility the trailers pulled by the semis could have batteries as well? I know it would make for a very expensive trailer but they could easily add huge battery packs that could work with the semi to greatly increase range. Also, could electric motors be added to the trailers so that they could assist the semi with moving the load?
As for the other announcement, I'm hoping it will be Model Y or Supercharger related. I think it has to be something physical that attendees will be able to ogle.
It just occurred to me that Elon could talk about faster SuperCharging for the semis, and then explain about how the new cells being produced at GF1 are a key part of this. He could then go on to say those same cells are in every M3 and every S&X built since July, and we have already begun upgrading SC stations around the world... cut to live video of an S charging at markedly faster SC rates. Speculative, of course, but the timing seems to fit.
I think it's high speed supercharging too. The 100 packs should be capable of 10-15% higher power superchargers. They have more cells to distribute the load. But I think very high speed supercharging for semis is going to be a requirement. With massive battery packs, they can take very high power.
Higher density batteries are coming along, there are several different labs working on solid state batteries and showing some promise, but those technologies haven't left the lab yet. It will be 5-10 years before those technologies are ready for mass production. Tesla may have been working on the same technology in secret and may be ahead of everyone else, but they wouldn't have built the Gigafactory the way they have to this point if a major new battery chemistry was on the horizon before 2020.
It's virtually a guarantee that the first generation of semis will have the same li-ion chemistry (or close to it) as the Model 3.
Batteries in the trailer might be an option, but it will likely only be used in very limited cases. There are a couple of very good reasons it will be rare if at all:
1) There is a vast, existing fleet of trailers designed for the current diesels on the road
2) Adding batteries to the trailer adds a lot of weight (reduced payload) and a lot of cost. A battery pack like the Model S/X has stretching along the bottom of a standard trailer is going to cost in the neighborhood of $50,000-$100,000 or more even in 2020. Higher price for less cargo capacity is a trade off few people are going to be willing to pay for to get more range.
3) With much more expensive trailers, there will be an incentive to steal them and break them down for the batteries. Unethical builders of solar and wind backup systems would probably look the other way if some bargain batteries fell into their possession.
I doubt powered trailers will be a thing either. Regulators might have a problem with trailers capable of moving on their own without the tractor. I don't think there is any other highway vehicle that can be detached and both parts are powered and can move under their own power. The regulators would want proof the trailer would shut down and not move on its own if detached from the cab on the highway.
It could be done, but would require some extra hoops to jump through. We are talking about regulatory agencies that haven't approved cameras for outside rear view mirrors yet, despite that technology being pretty much proven safe at this point. I believe Japan is the only country that has approved using cameras instead of rear view mirrors on the outside of cars.