What's the ultimate demand for the Tesla Model 3?

[daniel]

I guessed < 400K. Googled Honda Civic sales, figured, okay, this car will cost twice as much once the SR is available, but it's going to be the best of the moderately-priced BEVs on the market, and once there are enough of them to be familiar to the public, everybody's gonna want one. When I first got my Roadster people asked if it was a Lotus. Now (I gather) people are asking Lotus drivers if their car is a Tesla. Everybody's gonna want a Model 3. Tesla fanboy here. Can you tell?

 

[LCR1]

<dude, do you even ____ meme . jpg>

"Before the truck happens, quite frankly."



DFW Metros + Austin Metro + Houston Metro = approximate population 22mil of 26.5mil statewide (2013)

Texas is big but there's a whole lot of space here, too.

P.S. Without even looking for them, in the last week I've come across "Tesla towed my car a couple hundred miles to get serviced" stories here.

EDIT: I expect TX's fubar rent seeking laws are likely a major rub. Although I don't know how sales have been here so far to support a much larger network, anyway?



?

Not even close, those three metros account for MAYBE 16 million out of a population of 28 million. Those three metro areas account for 24,000 miles of land in a state of 269,000 square miles.


And that's great that tesla will tow a car a few hundred miles, what is that family supposed to do while their car is hundreds of miles away? what are the logistical costs of that? I charge $3/mile to tow, I know AAA pays out around that also for their contracts, I doubt tesla is getting better rates than AAA. You really think Tesla is going to be able to support a business model where they have to tow cars hundreds of miles or send rangers hundreds of miles for simple repairs? You think a family wants to deal with the hassle of hundreds of miles of travel when they can take their civic or focus to the dealer 10 minutes away or joe blow around the block?

 

[LCR1]

And why do you keep bringing up the chicken tax? It has nothing to do with vehicles made in north america.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Not even close, those three metros account for MAYBE 16 million out of a population of 28 million. Those three metro areas account for 24,000 miles of land in a state of 269,000 square miles.

https://www.dshs.texas.gov/chs/info/current-msa.shtm

DFW is really 3 tightly grouped metros, roughly east, west, and north.

And that's great that tesla will tow a car a few hundred miles, what is that family supposed to do while their car is hundreds of miles away?

They are provided a loaner.

....what are the logistical costs of that? I charge $3/mile to tow, I know AAA pays out around that also for their contracts, I doubt tesla is getting better rates than AAA. You really think Tesla is going to be able to support a business model where they have to tow cars hundreds of miles or send rangers hundreds of miles for simple repairs? You think a family wants to deal with the hassle of hundreds of miles of travel when they can take their civic or focus to the dealer 10 minutes away or joe blow around the block?

Longterm, no I don't think so. Thus my comment in this thread, and elsewhere, that 3rd party repair support is something Tesla needs to be working on. Ultimately for their own good. And past statements are that they indeed are (no idea where that's at). Technically they are already supporting it to an extent in MA, because of state law requirements. If you live in MA you can pay for access to some of their otherwise internal repair manuals and tech specs.

Yes, this country has a lot of empty-ish space (Texas isn't alone in that). Tesla's ownership has been relatively concentrated geographically so far, for a few reasons. Which was fine as Tesla as a tiny niche player. Remember, they still have less than 200K vehicles delivered in the US, total ever. Now they are growing into a larger niche player that'll be less tenable over time, and so it'll be shifting as the numbers to support it grow. ((The bulk of those are going to remain under warrantee for years yet, though.))

EDIT: This BTW is precisely why I expect by the time Tesla gets to production on a pick-up that they'll have a 3rd party service solution at least partially in place. What isn't clear yet is if they'll have a mix of franchised "sales centers" (which are actually just glorified delivery depots) rolled into that, too.

 

[LCR1]

So you proved my point and disproved yourself, with your own link. Those three areas total, 14,758,513 in a population of 28,000,000; nothing close to 22 like you claim.

Telsa has a hard enough time providing loaners to some areas already, there's plenty of threads on that as well. They are burning through billions of dollars a year right now and can't keep up. What's the cost going to be to Tesla if you have car issues in El Paso or any other place that needs to be transported hundreds of miles? Tesla is burning through enough money now where are they going to get the money to support all these long distance warranty claims? What is someone going to do if the scroll wheels quit working? spend $1,000 transporting a car for a $50 part?

 

[ℬête Noire]

So you proved my point and disproved yourself, with your own link. Those three areas total, 14,758,513 in a population of 28,000,000; nothing close to 22 like you claim.

Ummmmmm.....

6,715,200
4,423,052
2,292,148
6,219,419
1,823,894
=======
21,473,713

Mea culpa, was a little high on eyeballing the round-off but surely you can spot me that?

Note that I didn't include San Antonio (2.25mi) because I wasn't sure what they have at that location. Building+parking lot looks big enough to handle deliveries but I don't know if they are delivering there? (Or if they can, because TX laws?) They aren't currently listed as a "Service Center" in any event.

Telsa has a hard enough time providing loaners to some areas already, there's plenty of threads on that as well. They are burning through billions of dollars a year right now and can't keep up. What's the cost going to be to Tesla if you have car issues in El Paso or any other place that needs to be transported hundreds of miles? Tesla is burning through enough money now where are they going to get the money to support all these long distance warranty claims? What is someone going to do if the scroll wheels quit working? spend $1,000 transporting a car for a $50 part?

You seem to be getting further and further off-topic here.

 

[LCR1]

Ummmmmm.....

6,715,200
4,423,052
2,292,148
6,219,419
1,823,894
=======
21,473,713

Mea culpa, was a little high on eyeballing the round-off but surely you can spot me that?

Note that I didn't include San Antonio (2.25mi) because I wasn't sure what they have at that location. Building+parking lot looks big enough to handle deliveries but I don't know if they are delivering there? (Or if they can, because TX laws?) They aren't currently listed as a "Service Center" in any event.



You seem to be getting further and further off-topic here.

QFT

 

[EinSV]

Elon has estimated Model 3 demand could reach 700K per year or more and that is probably conservative. Tesla Model 3 annual demand could surpass 700,000 units, says Elon Musk

People don’t ordinarily sign up for a car two years in advance but something on the order of ~500K people have done that. I think eventually we’ll reach between 700K and 1 million/year (if not more) with an additional million-plus Model Y/year.

And yes Tesla will sell a $35K version of the Model 3 — it is core to its mission.

Almost everyone vastly underestimated how many reservations would be made for the Model 3. I think many are similarly underestimating how much demand there will be once Model 3 production is up and running.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Elon has estimated Model 3 demand could reach 700K per year and that is probably conservative.

Citation? Across all current lines (S3X)? Across the M3 platform (3 & Y)? Across all lines including Gen4?

 

[EinSV]

Citation? Across all current lines (S3X)? Across the M3 platform (3 & Y)? Across all lines including Gen4?

I realized that was missing and just added to the post above. 700K+/year estimate was just Model 3.

 

[ℬête Noire]

I realized that was missing and just added to the post above. 700K+/year estimate was just Model 3.

Topping Camry sales worldwide? Well he doesn't lack the bravery to aim high, I'll give him that.

 

[suwaneedad]

I expect that the Model 3 I acquire will be the last car I ever purchase (I am 46 and in good health for an American white male).
I say this because I expect FSD to be effective (whether perfected by Tesla or others is TBD) before my Model 3 has reached the end of its practical life (12-18 years), thereby ending the era of required auto ownership at right around the 100yr mark.
From there, I'll just summon a vehicle when I need to get somewhere, and then send it on its way when done.

That said, I can envision buying a Model Y since my wife prefers to be "up high" but THAT will be the last vehicle I ever buy.

So while I replied to the poll with <1MM, depending on the horizon and the evolution of FSD+regulators, the proper answer may well be zero!

 

[daniel]

I expect that the Model 3 I acquire will be the last car I ever purchase (I am 46 and in good health for an American white male).
I say this because I expect FSD to be effective (whether perfected by Tesla or others is TBD) before my Model 3 has reached the end of its practical life (12-18 years), thereby ending the era of required auto ownership at right around the 100yr mark.
From there, I'll just summon a vehicle when I need to get somewhere, and then send it on its way when done.

That said, I can envision buying a Model Y since my wife prefers to be "up high" but THAT will be the last vehicle I ever buy.

So while I replied to the poll with <1MM, depending on the horizon and the evolution of FSD+regulators, the proper answer may well be zero!

It would surprise me if the advent of FSD produces a ride-sharing industry significantly cheaper than Uber is now. If you don't find it economically practical to give up your car in favor of Uber today, you're probably not going to find it economically practical to give up your car when Uber and similar services are using FSD cars.

There's also the question of whether such services will provide cars for long inter-city road trips. Some might, but one never knows. I believe there will still be a market for private cars. At 46, you've got about four decades before you're too old to drive safely. I predict your Model 3 will not be your last car. Unless, of course, the zombie apocalypse happens and there aren't any more cars.

 

[EinSV]

Topping Camry sales worldwide? Well he doesn't lack the bravery to aim high, I'll give him that.

It is ambitious, but ~500K reservations is nothing to sneeze at. And beating Mercedes, BMW and Audi at the high end of the market in their own backyard (plus the US) isn’t either. Tesla Model S outsells German luxury flagships in Europe Especially when you’ve only been making cars in volume for 5-6 years.

 

[LCR1]

Ummmmmm.....

6,715,200
4,423,052
2,292,148
6,219,419
1,823,894
=======
21,473,713

Mea culpa, was a little high on eyeballing the round-off but surely you can spot me that?

Note that I didn't include San Antonio (2.25mi) because I wasn't sure what they have at that location. Building+parking lot looks big enough to handle deliveries but I don't know if they are delivering there? (Or if they can, because TX laws?) They aren't currently listed as a "Service Center" in any event.



You seem to be getting further and further off-topic here.

Let me try this a nicer way. Your numbers are completely wrong, try again.

The demand for the 3 is not going to be limited by the supply of them, it will be limited by the ability to service them. In the US there aren't enough service centers, in the next year you're talking about doubling the number of cars Tesla has produced since their existence. To the countries I've been to overseas they are more prepared and densely populated; the mobile repair model would work much better in these cases.

 

[LCR1]

It is ambitious, but ~500K reservations is nothing to sneeze at. And beating Mercedes, BMW and Audi at the high end of the market in their own backyard (plus the US) isn’t either. Tesla Model S outsells German luxury flagships in Europe Especially when you’ve only been making cars in volume for 5-6 years.

People seem to forget that Tesla only makes one car. The S. Until last year, when the bolt came out, if you wanted an electric car with more than 100 miles of real range your only option was the S. I would never in my life consider buying an MB Sclass or a BMW 7 Series, NEVER. However, simply because I bought an S, I was automatically thrown into that demographic. That applies to every single person that wants to buy a long range electric vehicle no matter what they drove before or since, if they buy a Tesla they are thrown into that class of buyers. You're comparing two completely different categories.

Look at the sales of the 7 Series in Europe like your article does, the numbers have gone up. Same with the S-class from MB they have been selling more cars since the Model S came out. So how is it Tesla is stealing all of these sales from luxury cars if the two are actually selling more cars? People aren't making a mass exodus from luxury brands to Tesla luxury cars, they are coming from everywhere for Tesla electric cars.

 

[daniel]

Tesla is definitely going to have to increase its service capacity. Right now there is one Tesla ranger, and no service center, in Spokane. The ranger makes house calls and works out of a truck. As more and more Model 3 are delivered he's going to need some staff, and if Tesla is aiming to sell half a million cars a year, he's going to need a shop.

I've been told they're "working on it."

But you know what? I believe that the company that built an entire nation-wide network of super-charging stations and destination chargers will be able to build out service capacity as needed. My bigger concern is How long before there are super-charging stations on the secondary roads I take on my drive up to Canada for hiking? (Though I guess if I move to Maui that won't be an issue for me any more, since those hiking trips will mean flying to Vancouver and renting a car there.)

 

[dhrivnak]

So you proved my point and disproved yourself, with your own link. Those three areas total, 14,758,513 in a population of 28,000,000; nothing close to 22 like you claim.

Telsa has a hard enough time providing loaners to some areas already, there's plenty of threads on that as well. They are burning through billions of dollars a year right now and can't keep up. What's the cost going to be to Tesla if you have car issues in El Paso or any other place that needs to be transported hundreds of miles? Tesla is burning through enough money now where are they going to get the money to support all these long distance warranty claims? What is someone going to do if the scroll wheels quit working? spend $1,000 transporting a car for a $50 part?

I am hoping the Ranger program can work this time. I used Rangers for the first 5 years of Roadster ownership and it was FAR superior to dealing with a service center 190 miles away. I also support 3rd party options. That would be needed.

 

[daniel]

People seem to forget that Tesla only makes one car. The S. ...

Have they quit making the Model X? I hadn't heard. And they better be making the Model 3 because they've already taken my money for one, and even given me a VIN.

 

[LCR1]

Tesla is definitely going to have to increase its service capacity. Right now there is one Tesla ranger, and no service center, in Spokane. The ranger makes house calls and works out of a truck. As more and more Model 3 are delivered he's going to need some staff, and if Tesla is aiming to sell half a million cars a year, he's going to need a shop.

I've been told they're "working on it."

....

Just a thought, they've also been "working on" the I10 super charger route for 5 years now.