What's your estimate for the price of a loaded Model 3...

[182RG]

Model X RN Numbers | Tesla Motors

"I believe they have made the Sequence numbers OBE by setting the Performance model and other high profit model reservations first. I am sure they are maximizing their deliveries of high profit vehicles first. This is what the investors expect of a well run company."

 

[gregincal]

A somebody who has been on these boards a long time, here is how it goes:

Model S release: They better ship in reservation order or it will be a PR disaster! I'm so pissed off at Tesla that they aren't shipping in reservation order. People eventually get their cars and forget being pissed off. There are a few negative articles people ignore. The company moves on.

Model X release: They better ship in reservation order or it will be a PR disaster! I'm so pissed off at Tesla that they aren't shipping in reservation order. People eventually get their cars and forget being pissed off. There are a few negative articles people ignore. The company moves on.

Model 3 release: They better ship in reservation order or it will be a PR disaster! (to be continued)

 

[Mkorpal]

Obviously this is derailing the thread (shocking). I have no illusions that priority shuffling will happen, it's well known at this point. But Tesla clearly states on my reservation page that I will be invited to configure based on the date I reserved. Those who are invited to configure at the same time who check off more boxes will get their car 1st. Those who live closer to California will get their car 1st. But that configuration date will still matter in the delivery schedule.

 

[JeffK]

As long as it's lower cost and better than the decked out competing BMW M3, Audi A4, Jaguar XE etc.

 

[adiggs]

I checked the top option in the poll. And I won't be surprised if the maxed out Model 3 is over 100k, nor will I be surprised if it's more like the 80-90k option. Tesla is incentivized to offer really expensive, really high margin options, on Model 3 like the Ludicrous upgrade. Will it still be $10k? Maybe not - but maybe yes.

For those observing that at some price, they might as well get a Model S, that may be true for you. But there is a segment of buyers that would rather spend $120k on a smaller high performance car, than $140k on a high performance larger sedan. This is, in fact, a giveaway that a market is starting to form, with a variety of overlapping price points, and overlapping features/functionality. Some people will want the bigger car with fewer options - others will want the smaller car with more options, all at the same price point. And it's in Tesla's best interest to serve as wide of a price range and feature range as they can easily do.


My prediction - the maxed out Model 3 will be Tesla's highest performance car when it ships. It will be less expensive than a maxed out Model S or X, but it might not be much cheaper. Heck - it might be a straight $35k cheaper (70k base price down to $35k base price - all the options the same from there), which would get a fully optioned Model 3 into the 110k range.

I expect it to be wickedly fast and good handling too

 

[JeffK]

That'd be really risky seeing as there are quite a few competitors in this space. Even the Focus RS comes in at 4.7 seconds at a little over $35 thousand with AWD. Each of the model S features have huge margins. Hopefully these come down to a sane rate for the car positioned for 50% of the population.

 

[Bounou]

Pure reservation slots haven't mattered to Tesla up to this point. Not with the S, or the X. Ask some early reservation holder Model X 70D customers where their cars are. The 'Reservation Agreement' that we agreed to states very clearly that sequence is up to Tesla.

If #1 at a store wants a $35K Model 3, he/she will indeed be skipped. That is known. The investment community was told that "Highly Optioned" vehicles will be prioritized first. If there are 200,000 people behind #1 who will spend $60K, they will get served first. History.

Finally, what is more of a PR disaster? Disappointing base model reservation holders, or disappointing investors and analysts by telling them that the company passed over higher margins and revenue to fulfill the promise of a few tweets? You decide.

I reserved about a week after the reveal and intend on getting at the very least 20k in options and depending on the final price might even go for the fully loaded model.

I fully expect someone that was waiting in line on the 31st who wants a base model would get it before me, I might get lucky, the guy at the Tesla store told me I am in line to get it before because my dad's a previous owner but I am not expecting it.

I'm sure someone who wants a base model might need to wait a few months but expecting them to wait 2 extra years is crazy and would be a PR nightmare.

Depending on how fast Tesla ramps up production hopefully this will be a moot point.

 

[Justmurr]

Any more than 55K and I may as well by a Model S

That's my 'high' number too...anything over that is hard to justify in the economy of my world.

I think a fully loaded Model 3 will be just under or at $70k.

 

[PDFS]

I figured at 35K I would order all the options I wanted and probably be at 55 to 65 K, and wait two years to get it without tax credit. That is why I ordered a Model S70 with next gen seats and autopilot. When the price for the options finally comes out I might be kicking myself that I did not wait.

 

[Drivin]

I think around 45k
I believe that will be the big surprise in the next official Model 3 update.
Breakthroughs in other areas - that is the reason why it will be another 18 months before production - they need to incorporate those changes into the chain.

 

[tenstringer009]

Well, per Business Insider, 'JPMorgan analysts had noted that the $35,000 price tag, although Tesla's lowest ever, could still limit demand. That's because it's likely to be more expensive after options are added.'

Apparently there's a chance that all the options will be free, or maybe the Model 3 will be even less expensive once options are added...I'm going to say $15k for a fully loaded version

 

[wallet.dat]

Fully optioned out for me would simply be PXXDL. That's it. I don't want any underbody rust protection or anti-static upholstery coating.

 

[Ltespd]

I checked the top option in the poll. And I won't be surprised if the maxed out Model 3 is over 100k, nor will I be surprised if it's more like the 80-90k option. Tesla is incentivized to offer really expensive, really high margin options, on Model 3 like the Ludicrous upgrade. Will it still be $10k? Maybe not - but maybe yes.

For those observing that at some price, they might as well get a Model S, that may be true for you. But there is a segment of buyers that would rather spend $120k on a smaller high performance car, than $140k on a high performance larger sedan. This is, in fact, a giveaway that a market is starting to form, with a variety of overlapping price points, and overlapping features/functionality. Some people will want the bigger car with fewer options - others will want the smaller car with more options, all at the same price point. And it's in Tesla's best interest to serve as wide of a price range and feature range as they can easily do.


My prediction - the maxed out Model 3 will be Tesla's highest performance car when it ships. It will be less expensive than a maxed out Model S or X, but it might not be much cheaper. Heck - it might be a straight $35k cheaper (70k base price down to $35k base price - all the options the same from there), which would get a fully optioned Model 3 into the 110k range.

I expect it to be wickedly fast and good handling too

No way the Tesla 3 maxxed out will be 100k. It's competition is the BMW M3 or Audi S4. The S4 tops out at 64k. The BMW M3 tops out at 80k. Tesla's goal is to surpass the competition. They can't do that if they're priced 15-20k higher than the competition.

 

[voip-ninja]

Fully optioned out for me would simply be PXXDL. That's it. I don't want any underbody rust protection or anti-static upholstery coating.

I rather doubt that Tesla is yet in the business of selling those kind of profit adders.

 

[tsla007]

*dreamingly* Jokingly-150k- why?? all options and dual battery packs for 500m range. We wish.
Seriously, 65k. Otherwise you hit model S prices.
I'm thinking for production purposes you will more than likely be forced into a package deal.
Entry level: smallest battery pack single motor no options. Still a great car 35k
Entry mid level: dual motor upgrade with SC included in price 42k
Mid level: dual motor/sc/ap/pano maybe cold weather package included mid level battery 50k
Mid high: dual motor/sc/ap/pano/upgraded wheels/performance/largest battery pack (Pmodel) 58.5k
High: Loaded or L model all options ludic mode. (pl model might just be called l model) 65k
this way the production lines can haul butt and get them out the door with 5 price points.
There might be extras like tow hitch and some others but that would be optional that have no affect on car built-just added on after the fact. This is just an example list and not meant to be complete in any way.

 

[jonnyg]

No way the Tesla 3 maxxed out will be 100k. It's competition is the BMW M3 or Audi S4. The S4 tops out at 64k. The BMW M3 tops out at 80k. Tesla's goal is to surpass the competition. They can't do that if they're priced 15-20k higher than the competition.

Here's an M3 with an MSRP of 102k:

Cars.com

 

[sports4eva115]

Now that Tesla turned the ramp up dial to 11, I think it's clear that they're going to focus on ease of manufacturing, at least for version 1.0. Because of that, there's probably not going to be TOO many options, and even if there are options there'll probably be only a couple choices per category.
For ex, things like smart air suspension or pano roof will definitely be nice gadgets to have, but probably not what the average household is looking for in a vehicle. The most critical upgrades that it needs are the battery, awd, and autopilot, to target range anxiety and autonomous driving.
I would've said only ludicrous upgrade would be the unnecessary option (Tesla doesn't make slow cars!), but with all the HEPA filter work they published and China being #2 on the Model 3 reservation list, that'll probably be included too.
Probably only 20K max in upgrades, so ~55K max total.

 

[Canuck]

The poll ends at $90k? That's too low.

 

[Siciliano]

Realistically, the fully loaded model 3 won't cost more than double the base price, which is $35k...so I'm thinking $70k will be the high end price, $65k conservative estimate.

If you're lucky enough to get the full fed tax credit, you're looking at approximately $57,500 - $62,500, before taxes/tags/etc. When all is said and done, with taxes and everything, driven off the lot it'll be between $62,500 to $68,000 total.

I'm "sort of" willing to spend whatever it takes to get a the fully loaded version, but if it's more than $70k I will be very reluctant.

 

[Ludus]

It kinda depends on what's meant by a loaded version.

I think ludicrous mode and crazy 0-60 numbers are very profitable for Tesla and Elon already tweeted that 3 will have L mode. They'll likely make a halo version that's faster than any Model S or X because it's a lighter car. It will be too easy to pass up. That car could easily get more than $100k but $30k of that will be for little tweaks like bigger electric motors and software (i.e. Mostly profit). Non ludicrous loaded will top out by $70k-$75k.