Hi all,
I've made a good amount of money with Tesla in part because of TMC, and I have a desire to share and discuss companies with big picture thinking, like-minded people. I thought it would be interesting for the community here to share their perspectives on companies we believe in and are invested in. In no means are we trying to give serious financial advice in this thread, or seek investment advice. Your own due diligence, familiarity with the industry, and gut instincts should be the major factors in your investment decisions. Commentary on your stocks are optional. I kinda used this post to centralize some of my notes, so it does get a tad bit lengthy, especially with Apple.
My Holdings:
On my radar: Potbelly's (PBPB), Trulia (TRLA), shorts on Twitter and JCP. If there was a way for me to invest in Uber or Airbnb, I'd be buying a ton of both. Talk about industry disruptors.
I've made a good amount of money with Tesla in part because of TMC, and I have a desire to share and discuss companies with big picture thinking, like-minded people. I thought it would be interesting for the community here to share their perspectives on companies we believe in and are invested in. In no means are we trying to give serious financial advice in this thread, or seek investment advice. Your own due diligence, familiarity with the industry, and gut instincts should be the major factors in your investment decisions. Commentary on your stocks are optional. I kinda used this post to centralize some of my notes, so it does get a tad bit lengthy, especially with Apple.
My Holdings:
- Tesla - Not much needs to be said here, it's my largest position by a good margin, and I'll be holding my core position for the long term. Cost basis is at $34, I trimmed 15-25% a few times since then, also picked up some LEAPS last year. I'll be holding my core position for the long term, and will be buying in pre-defined levels on all dips. Tesla still has a few years before it truly defines itself.
- Facebook - Best play on mobile ads, and I feel pretty strongly that they can keep this type of growth up for a little while; the growth is basically all thanks Facebook's ability to monetize on their mobile app. Zuckerberg wrote a few months ago that his desire to really get serious about generating more revenues was based in part because of top talent leaving his company because of the poor stock performance. Simply put, advertisers are willing to spend more to advertise on Facebook mobile than they ever were for those sidebar text ads for desktop. In my opinion, the mobile ads in the newsfeed are very well integrated and unobtrusive, and most importantly, many of the ads actually get my attention (targeted advertising). Facebook's revenue growth on mobile has been crazy over the past 5-6 quarters. Autoplay video ads are one major catalyst to hold this for; they've been experimenting with them for a while, and it seems highly likely they will launch it sitewide soon-- these are highly unobtrusive compared to other video ads you encounter online which force your attention for 10-30 seconds. Personally, these lengthy video ads really piss me off. Even if it's content I really want to read or watch, I'll close it out if they require me to watch a 30 second ad beforehand. For the Facebook autoplay video ads, they look like just any other newsfeed item, and you can scroll right past them in the newsfeed if desired, without the video playing audio or becoming fullscreen. You can tap the ad in order to enable fullscreen mode and sound. I must admit, I've actually genuinely wanted to click on some of the ads, and I have. I can't say that about too many other ads I come across online. I also have very high confidence that WhatsApp will cross the 1 billion active user mark before much longer, driven by growth internationally. I would say it has some major sticking power at least for the next 5-10 years. Their growth chart is here, and is pretty ridiculous. For people even roughly affiliated with the industry, the consensus has been that this was not a stupid move by Zuckerberg.
- Yelp - I actually haven't done much research on the stock, but I use Yelp all the time. I have a small position which I started about a month ago. Really wish I had gotten in earlier (kind of like NFLX, P, SCTY, etc).
- Apple - I feel like the mainstream perception of Apple right now is that innovation left when Jobs had to step down. And now they're the next Microsoft. I was actually an Apple bear until mid last year, as I was using Nokia's flagship Lumia 920 for 8 months prior. I think the back half of this year will generate some real investor enthusiasm for Apple. The much needed larger screen iPhone is coming this year, and it seems highly likely that their "iwatch" will be released by the end of this year.
- The 'iWatch' would not only be a 'companion' device to the iphone, but will also focus heavily on health sensors and biometrics, to be able to track metrics such as heart rate, blood pressure, glucose levels, sleep quality, movement, etc. Apple met with the FDA back in December to discuss 'mobile medical applications', and they have something dubbed 'Healthbook' which will track personal health metrics in iOS8. It's also rumored that it could have some home automation features, such as the ability to control your home's heating/cooling, lights, audio, video. It should have a durable sapphire glass screen, and come in multiple sizes. The NYT's reported last month that it could use solar power and wireless charging.
- During Apple's last conference call in late January, Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray asked Cooke straight up whether there will be any new product categories released by the end of 2014, in which Cooke responded "Yes, absolutely. No change". The conference call before that, Cooke stated he sees significant opportunities in current product categories and new ones, and said they'd be rolled out "across 2014".
- Apple bought back $14 billion worth of shares in the two week period following their most recent earnings report, when their shares dropped by 10%.
- Apple increased their R&D in 2013 by 32%.
- Apple outspent Google in acquisitions in 2013.
- Earlier this year it was reported that Apple has been building up a mobile payments division. Cooke said just over a month ago that mobile payments was an area that investors wouldn't be foolish to expect that Apple move in to. My guess is either this or next year they'll unveil their mobile payment processing solution. They'll be partnering with big box retailers and allow customers to potentially pay without needing their wallet, with very minimal or no human interaction during checkout. Biometric security, according to Cooke, is a big reason they can do this. Apple stores are already doing this with iBeacon. Keep in mind Apple has ~600 million accounts, most of which are linked to a credit card. Amazon, the behemoth in e-commerce, has 224 million accounts. Also keep in mind Apple has mysteriously removed all cryptocurrency/Bitcoin exchange/trading apps from their app store.. conflict of interest for Apple?
- An updated Apple TV is extremely likely for the early half of this year, and will likely include a revamped user interface and and a possible entry into the video game market with bluetooth controller support. Apple has also reportedly been in negotiations with Time Warner Cable and other partners to add live and recording programming content. Apple has roughly doubled its Apple TV sales from 5 million units in 2012 to 10 million in 2013. An Apple TV set (hardware made by Apple) is rumored to eventually be released by Apple, but probably not until 2015 earliest.
- AMC - This just IPO'ed in December, and I just bought in a couple days ago. Wanda Group, a Chinese conglomerate, bought them out in 2012 for $2.6 billion. At today's market cap, they've valued at ~$2.2 billion. Shortly after the purchase, AMC become profitable. AMC's theaters have been around forever as most of you know, and the new management has initiated a major turnaround effort, and I believe in it 100%. They've already recently renovated 28 theater locations with plush, electric recliners which allow you to FULLY recline back. 66% of seating is lost, but so far attendance in these renovated theaters have gone up an average of 91%. 65 theaters are currently under renovation. They've also recently opened 45 MacGuffins Bar and Lounges on site, serving beer, wine, and liquor, including movie themed drinks. 23 of these locations are under construction and will open in the next 12 months. They're also beginning to sell less of the traditional popcorn/soda, and more hot foods, healthy foods, espresso drinks, smoothies, etc. They're expanding their dine in theaters (eat dinner/have a couple drinks during the movie) from 11 to 31 within 5 years. Their CEO, Gerry Lopez, was an executive VP of Starbucks and President of its Global Consumer Products before coming to AMC in 2009. Just last week, Fast Company included AMC into their Top 10 Most Innovative Companies in Hollywood, where Lopez was quoted: "At AMC, we challenge ourselves to be the initiators and not the followers."
- ANGI (short) - will continue to short ANGI on all pops nearing $20. Their business really sucks.
- TMUS - I have a small play position in T-Mobile. I love how they've disrupted the two main wireless carriers, forcing AT&T and Verizon to change. After having a net loss in customers in Q412, new CEO John Lejere has led the company to 869,000 net customer additions in Q313, and 1.6 million net new additions in Q413. The real question is, is this a legitimate, sustainable growth story, or are they just going all out to try and get bought out. Sprint is doing all they possibly can to convince the US that it should be allowed to merge with them. Personally, I don't see a problem with #3 and #4 merging.. it will provide some real competition for the big two.
On my radar: Potbelly's (PBPB), Trulia (TRLA), shorts on Twitter and JCP. If there was a way for me to invest in Uber or Airbnb, I'd be buying a ton of both. Talk about industry disruptors.