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When can we read a book?
- Thread starter lunitiks
- Start date
robby
Member
How heavy is the book and at what angle can you rest it on the steering wheel?
My guess is demo late next year, software update 2020. It seems Tesla has spent a lot of time getting their infrastructure and development environment in order, once that is done iterations should be much faster. Still it is a very difficult task and it is important to get it done right.
In the current version of Model S/X? probably never because threes' no driver monitoring cam.
But these people certainly thought so.
and then you have this
But these people certainly thought so.
and then you have this
Various views expressed in this thread suggest that FSD is years and years away.
Elon has promised a coast to coast FSD demo drive within the next 7 months.
So those who believe FSD is a long, long way away must think that either:
I think it's fair, based on the guy's reputation and achievements, to eliminate option 1. above. He's not an idiot; quite the opposite.
- Elon Musk is some kind of idiot who is entirely ignorant of difficult FSD scenarios that quickly occur to you and me
- Elon Musk is somehow trying to play a cynical game. He knows that FSD is years away but it somehow serves his purpose to say it's far closer
- Or some other theory - suggestions welcome
Regarding 2 - it's not clear to me exactly what game he might be trying to play. Until some reasonable "game-playing" theory emerges, I'm forced to also discount 2.
(by game-playing theory, I'm talking about an explanation of exactly what short term goals Elon is seeking to achieve by making knowingly false optimistic claims about FSD and how the value of these goals exceeds the longer term price he will pay when they prove false)
We may come back to 3. depending on what responses I get to this ramble...
Therefore if Elon says "it's coming sooner than you think" and repeatedly promises to demonstrate it before the end of 2017, I'm inclined to take that at face value.
By the way, comparing FSD with current autopilot is a chalk vs.cheese exercise. Current autopilot is designed for highways only, and is using a combination active cruise and highway lane keeping vision which are both quite old technologies now; I was driving cars 8 years ago with both of these facilities. Having said that, I like autopilot a lot. I have used it over thousands of miles in my AP2 Model S.
FSD, in comparison, will use technology that was not available to anyone 8 years ago. AI became better than people at vision only about 5 years ago, and the even bigger achievements in deep learning that are making headlines at the moment (e.g. DeepMind/AlphaGo) only became possible far more recently than that. We're on an AI roll at the moment, and Elon Musk is an insider in that process. His claims are made based on stuff that he knows, that we don't, and stuff he has seen, that we haven't. And I repeat, he's not stupid.
There. Said it now
jimmy_d
Deep Learning Dork
I get motion sickness so easily that for me the answer is probably never. I can't read a book as a passenger on a straight flat road. Which really sucks because I love to read and I'm on the road a lot. Sigh. Though it does give me plenty of time to observe the surroundings. BTW I counted 325 Teslas over the last two days of driving - just in case you were wondering. (52% were 3's - a new record)
But my own problems aside, I almost feel like I could read a book now - AP works great in the places that I use it the most (California major interstates between cities - the "Tesla zone" if you will). And recently I've been thinking about this topic quite a bit: just how far are we from having AP be able to claim L3 performance on some set of whitelisted roads? From my use it feels like one more significant bump up in predictability could do it. So I've been thinking that whatever updates Karpathy tells us we can see with HW3 - well that should be enough.
But then there's the whole question of labeling, corporate strategy, PR and so forth. Obviously you want the tech to be as safe as possible. You want it to save the drunk guy, and save the distracted mom, and save the fellow who's having a medical emergency, and save the college student who falls asleep. You even want it to save that asshole who dogging the fast lane and ignoring everyone else while having an argument on his cell phone. You want the system to actually *be* as good as possible no matter what you *say* about it. At what point does it make sense to actually tell people that they can slack off?
The upside might be bragging rights and maybe some sales but it comes with the risk that people will be reckless. And if your system is actually good and you are already ahead in the public perception - if the competition is over-the-horizon behind you maybe you don't care about bragging rights. Then there's the risk that if you use vague technical labels that are defined by someone else, like "L3", then you risk pointless and microscopic fault finding from mainstream media haters.
I wonder if maybe it's not worth claiming L3 (or L4) until it enables you to have some concrete feature that requires zero-attention-from-the-driver as a prerequisite. A feature like Tesla Network, or "summon from the next town over", or "drop me at the airport and then go home".
There could be some advantage I missing, like maybe it would increase adoption. Only about 10% of Tesla miles are on AP. Maybe people would trust it more if Tesla made some new claims, though personally it seems more likely to me that if the system is actually trustworthy then people will use it more. It certainly hasn't been trustworthy for much of the last 3 years and that probably contributes a lot to the low usage.
Anyone else think there's practical upside (from Tesla's perspective) to telling people it's ok to watch a movie while they are driving?
But my own problems aside, I almost feel like I could read a book now - AP works great in the places that I use it the most (California major interstates between cities - the "Tesla zone" if you will). And recently I've been thinking about this topic quite a bit: just how far are we from having AP be able to claim L3 performance on some set of whitelisted roads? From my use it feels like one more significant bump up in predictability could do it. So I've been thinking that whatever updates Karpathy tells us we can see with HW3 - well that should be enough.
But then there's the whole question of labeling, corporate strategy, PR and so forth. Obviously you want the tech to be as safe as possible. You want it to save the drunk guy, and save the distracted mom, and save the fellow who's having a medical emergency, and save the college student who falls asleep. You even want it to save that asshole who dogging the fast lane and ignoring everyone else while having an argument on his cell phone. You want the system to actually *be* as good as possible no matter what you *say* about it. At what point does it make sense to actually tell people that they can slack off?
The upside might be bragging rights and maybe some sales but it comes with the risk that people will be reckless. And if your system is actually good and you are already ahead in the public perception - if the competition is over-the-horizon behind you maybe you don't care about bragging rights. Then there's the risk that if you use vague technical labels that are defined by someone else, like "L3", then you risk pointless and microscopic fault finding from mainstream media haters.
I wonder if maybe it's not worth claiming L3 (or L4) until it enables you to have some concrete feature that requires zero-attention-from-the-driver as a prerequisite. A feature like Tesla Network, or "summon from the next town over", or "drop me at the airport and then go home".
There could be some advantage I missing, like maybe it would increase adoption. Only about 10% of Tesla miles are on AP. Maybe people would trust it more if Tesla made some new claims, though personally it seems more likely to me that if the system is actually trustworthy then people will use it more. It certainly hasn't been trustworthy for much of the last 3 years and that probably contributes a lot to the low usage.
Anyone else think there's practical upside (from Tesla's perspective) to telling people it's ok to watch a movie while they are driving?
jimmy_d
Deep Learning Dork
Speaking of a concrete feature that requires zero-driver: I've been thinking about an analysis done by Brad Templeton from a couple of years ago. He was thinking about how self driving cars impact the economics of parking garages and worked out that - because you can redesign a parking garage layout and make it much denser, that you get 6x as many cars in the same space. You don't have to leave space to open the car doors and the cars can all park 'valet style' since cars that are blocking can just rearrange themselves to make way when it's time for a particular vehicle to be extracted. Cars can be sorted by size and assigned locations to optimize capacity and access.
In places like SF (where I live) parking is crazy expensive - $500 a month for a spot in my hood. Cutting that by 2x or 3x would leave plenty of profit margin for a "Tesla specific" parking garage if there were enough Teslas and if Tesla made a 'vending machine' mode that let your car drop you in front of the garage and then go pack itself into the pez dispenser without you. It could all be done on private property, and the cars could move around in the garage at 5MPH to maximize safety and minimize technical challenges. And there could be automatic charging!
It might take your car a few minutes to get out, but you can always tell it you're on the way 5 minutes before you get to the garage so that it can meet you in front. This seems like it would be awesome for city centers, office parks, airports, malls, sports stadiums. It could create a lot of value for owners and a nice little business for Tesla in partnership with parking service providers.
In places like SF (where I live) parking is crazy expensive - $500 a month for a spot in my hood. Cutting that by 2x or 3x would leave plenty of profit margin for a "Tesla specific" parking garage if there were enough Teslas and if Tesla made a 'vending machine' mode that let your car drop you in front of the garage and then go pack itself into the pez dispenser without you. It could all be done on private property, and the cars could move around in the garage at 5MPH to maximize safety and minimize technical challenges. And there could be automatic charging!
It might take your car a few minutes to get out, but you can always tell it you're on the way 5 minutes before you get to the garage so that it can meet you in front. This seems like it would be awesome for city centers, office parks, airports, malls, sports stadiums. It could create a lot of value for owners and a nice little business for Tesla in partnership with parking service providers.
Honest Q, Is there any who actually takes anything Jimmy says seriously? Its nothing but PR for tesla.
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Actually, I don't think any local laws outside of NY require hands on the wheel or say you can't read. I could be wrong as my information is about 2 or 3 years old.
The issue falls into negligence or reckless driving statutes which would necessarily have to consider that its not negligent or reckless to read a book and use a L3 system. Its a misconception that, in the US at least, that L3 would require laws authorizing it. L4+ might, but even that is debatable and many states have already passed legislation explicitly allowing it (though, as I said, only one state, NY, explicitly prohibits it (through mandating that drivers have both hands on the driver wheel).
Frankly I do not think you appreciate the difficulty of car responsible driving there.
There is so much a car responsible for the drive (Level 3+) has to be able to handle. Much more than just lane keep — reliability of which is suspect on Teslas at this time anyway.
Everything is simple with the driver as the crutch. Make the car responsible for the drive and everything is so hard especially without a Lidar that would at least pretty much be false negative free.
NeverFollow
Active Member
@Randy7fx @croman I would like to ask you both, what part of my assesment was wrong about Jimmy's post?
He said that AP right now is basically L3 and that he feels "he can read a book". A lane keeping and adaptive cruise control system may i remind you. Then he said that Tesla might not claim L3 because they are so ahead or that it will bring media scrutiny so if they never claim it, its the reason why. Then he says the only upside to L3 is bragging right. Creating another cop-out. Then he goes to create another cop-out to say that L3/L4 might be pointless unless it does specific Tesla hyped features like "summon".
This is textbook PR.
But i would look to know what exactly you both disagreed with.
He said that AP right now is basically L3 and that he feels "he can read a book". A lane keeping and adaptive cruise control system may i remind you. Then he said that Tesla might not claim L3 because they are so ahead or that it will bring media scrutiny so if they never claim it, its the reason why. Then he says the only upside to L3 is bragging right. Creating another cop-out. Then he goes to create another cop-out to say that L3/L4 might be pointless unless it does specific Tesla hyped features like "summon".
This is textbook PR.
But i would look to know what exactly you both disagreed with.
This seems pretty trivial IMO. AGVs follow marked paths around factories. Any OEM with a vision-based DAS could implement a visual signage system that a car could follow (ideally in geofenced locations only). Park assist & super smart summon+ could do the rest.
Even humans need such a system in some parking lots!
A better question would be when can we see an official video from Tesla demonstrating that v9 software with latest hardware passes the FSD test?
Where FSD = Firetruck Super-Destruction and the test consists of having the Tesla cruising in AP @150kmh close behind a vehicle which then steps aside to reveal a stopped car in the same lane 200m ahead.
Fail = pile-driving into the obstruction with undiminished speed, as has been the sad Tesla tradition heretofore
Pass = recognising the danger from about 150m and coming to a controlled and safe stop behind the simulated traffic jam
i.e. something like this but at higher speed and with latest soft/hardware:
This car is on Autopilot. What happens next?
Once Tesla reliably clears this hurdle, I would finally feel comfortable with giving the key to friends or family.
And this is something that has to work flawlessly in all conditions before any discussion of actual FSD can even begin ... kinda like a geriatric learning to get out of bed without breaking a hip before attempting to run an actual marathon.
Where FSD = Firetruck Super-Destruction and the test consists of having the Tesla cruising in AP @150kmh close behind a vehicle which then steps aside to reveal a stopped car in the same lane 200m ahead.
Fail = pile-driving into the obstruction with undiminished speed, as has been the sad Tesla tradition heretofore
Pass = recognising the danger from about 150m and coming to a controlled and safe stop behind the simulated traffic jam
i.e. something like this but at higher speed and with latest soft/hardware:
This car is on Autopilot. What happens next?
Once Tesla reliably clears this hurdle, I would finally feel comfortable with giving the key to friends or family.
And this is something that has to work flawlessly in all conditions before any discussion of actual FSD can even begin ... kinda like a geriatric learning to get out of bed without breaking a hip before attempting to run an actual marathon.
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True in the firetruck sense of FSD.
But in the Tesla sense, FSD does not seem to equate Level 3 or 4 or 5, even though AP2 was touted as Level 5 capable. It seems to mean driver-responsible automated driving... ie a driver’s aid that can handle potentially the full range of driving scenarios, but still using the driver as the crutch for any unexpected issues or events. This seems to be the coast-to-coast demo too, not car-responsible driving.
How that translates to the Tesla Network, details of which to be released ”next year”, harder to say.
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