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Upon mature recollection it has dawned on me that there is another statistical factor which may skew the results, namely that "the average driver" =/= the average Tesla driver

Whereas I modestly awarded myself a rating of x4 better than the average driver, the average Tesla driver can afford an expensive car, thus is likely to be older and more careful with it than a 20 year-old rake who will surely scutch the living daylights out of whatever jalopy he has, so will have to be counted as at least x2 better than the average driver.

In that case, if following my maximal survival strategery, the average Tesla driver should daily remind themselves using AP is currently x4 more risky to life and limb than not bothering.
 
Upon mature recollection it has dawned on me that there is another statistical factor which may skew the results, namely that "the average driver" =/= the average Tesla driver

Whereas I modestly awarded myself a rating of x4 better than the average driver, the average Tesla driver can afford an expensive car, thus is likely to be older and more careful with it than a 20 year-old rake who will surely scutch the living daylights out of whatever jalopy he has, so will have to be counted as at least x2 better than the average driver.

In that case, if following my maximal survival strategery, the average Tesla driver should daily remind themselves using AP is currently x4 more risky to life and limb than not bothering.

On the other hand we all only have a few years experiences of using the AP. We are essentially teenager drivers in that sense. Drivers of those 2016 accidents were on learning permit if you will. If you take this into consideration things will go a whole lot better.
 
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Yes but insurance companies are run by flint-faced actuaries whose job it is to soberly digest the numbers and minimise losses to stay in business, irregardless of the PR needs of a certain ruthless egomaniac.

It could be that their analysis of the AP risk roughly agrees with mine, i.e. that in the current incarnation it is somewhat less safe than the average driver, added to the fact that Teslas are inordinately expensive to repair, which makes them bump up the premium or refuse coverage altogether.

Or they are simply another cog in the vast global conspiracy to do a good martyr down for no apparent reason [ confirmation bias meet persecution complex ] contrary to their own economic interest.

It's a real head-scratcher!

That's probably just the fear of unknown. Here in California where there are a lot of Tesla my rate is not much different than my previous cars, Porsche and Prius. It's an expensive car to repair but it's also a safe car. Fixing the fender is still whole lot cheaper than fixing a limb.

I'm sure the insurance industry wants car to be a little safer but I don't think they want cars to be safe to the point that there are very few or even no accident and wipes out their business model. No one is that stupid. That almost brought up my grip on big pharma's but it's just too OT for here.
 
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Where did this 10% usage figure come from? It sounds unlikely low. My Autopilot usage is probably about 90% of mileage.

Two months ago Tesla announced 10B fleet miles. Last month they announced 1B autopilot miles.

But yeah, my AP usage is over 95% and I was surprised. Lex Fridman’s group at MIT was guessing 20%, which is what I expected also. They had to redo all their charts last month when Tesla announced the 1B mile number. Either the take rate is lower than expected or a lot of people who own it don’t use it much.
 
More accurately stated, statistics can be manipulated by the deceptive to convey a false impression to the credulous/ignorant, whereas overstressed CEOs with everything to loose can and do order this to happen.

Also, sadly, it is entirely unsafe to assume "every AP caused fatality is reported in the media" or indeed by the company: in fact Tesla for around 2 years suppressed information on the first AP fatality in China [Jan.2016] by pretending they could not [remotely] determine if the car had been in Autopilot, although it is clear from its perfectly-centred trajectory to doom in the dashcam footage immediately recovered from the wreckage, as you can see for yourself linked in my comment above. It was only long after the hullabaloo over the Florida decapitation [May 2016] had died down [pun unintended] that this China incident became more widely known and Tesla finally admitted the accident had happened under Autopilot [ Tesla confirms 'Autopilot' engaged in fatal crash in China ]. Which retroactively rendered Musk's rearguard claim at the time of Brown's demise [ A Tragic Loss ], that his was "the first known fatality in just over 130 million miles where Autopilot was activated. Among all vehicles in the US, there is a fatality every 94 million miles.” as patently false and IMHO purposefully deceptive, as it was designed to lead the public and investigating authorities to rationalise "Oh well, this system is at least as safe as the average human driver, which, despite this one-off mess-up, is actually an amazing achievement!"

In reality, however, Brown was the second AP fatality in 130 million AP miles, making its score 1:65M, compared to 1:94M for the humans, i.e. quite a bit worse than the average driver, which anyhow is a rather unambitious marker against which to measure, and again conveniently omits the consideration that off-highway accidents are more frequent, which must further skew the result against AP.

But this was not then "known" to the wider public, i.e. proven against or admitted by Tesla at that time, nor was the Chinese driver Gao Yaning strictly speaking a Tesla "customer", but rather the son of one, who had borrowed the car from his pop for a spin. So maybe with a close enough parsing of the PR a corporate shyster will get his employer Musk off the legal hook for this sleight-of-hand, should it ever come up, which it has not, but that does not make it right or decent conduct.

Furthermore, the same deceptive company habits seem to continue to this very day in other cases, such as that in Switzerland from May 10, 2018, wherein a German businessman driving home alone in the daytime slammed his Model S into a motorway construction zone barricade at high speed, flipping the car and comprehensively cremating himself in situ: Swiss prosecutors investigate fatal Tesla crash | Reuters

Precious little mention of this in the ensuing 7 months: no blog post nor even a full name for this forgotten statistic. Are we thus to presume he was *not* "a friend to Tesla", did *not* have "a loving family"? Judging from the photo it is fortuitous for Tesla's PR that no onboard data will have survived the inferno, so the mealy-mouthed excuses or shameful silence can probably never be proven against them, short of an FBI raid on the premises.

If, at it appears to me most likely, this was in fact another AP incident, that would mean 4 fatalities Musk has chalked up thus far, further damping his already untrustworthy statistics.

In short, it leaves a distinct taste of salt in the mouth!

Your statement about off highway fatalities being higher gets quoted a lot but it’s false, at least in the US it is. IIHS statistics show rural highways, the sort of place Browns accident occurred and where AP is frequently used, are the highest fatalities per mile. Surface streets (off highway) are comparable to to urban highways in the US.

Also, China’s fatality rate is much higher than the US figure you quoted.
 
Two months ago Tesla announced 10B fleet miles. Last month they announced 1B autopilot miles.

But yeah, my AP usage is over 95% and I was surprised. Lex Fridman’s group at MIT was guessing 20%, which is what I expected also. They had to redo all their charts last month when Tesla announced the 1B mile number. Either the take rate is lower than expected or a lot of people who own it don’t use it much.

There is another variable which is how many Tesla cars are equipped with AP. 50% of all cars seems to be a reasonable guess if part of the 10 billion miles came from pre-AP cars and part of it from people did not opt for AP. Those numbers do not necessarily contradict each other.
 
Your statement about off highway fatalities being higher gets quoted a lot but it’s false, at least in the US it is. IIHS statistics show rural highways, the sort of place Browns accident occurred and where AP is frequently used, are the highest fatalities per mile. Surface streets (off highway) are comparable to to urban highways in the US.

Also, China’s fatality rate is much higher than the US figure you quoted.

I already dealt with the China disparity above.

Following IIHS:
A. (Interstate & Freeway) means controlled-access motorway without crossing or opposing traffic
B. (Other major roads) would include rural highway a.k.a. dual carriageway with crossing but no opposing traffic, à la Brown, but also some roads divided only by e.g. double solid lines

B has about x4.5 the fatalities of A, but that only applies to USA as many countries e.g. in Europe do not have dual-carriageway or precious little compared to motorway proper. Only Tesla knows where people really use AP most and they are holding that info close to the chest.

By my reckoning we know of 3 AP fatalities on A so far, compared to 1 on B, so it appears I am not too far wrong.

The major point in all this, however, is that my numbers and conclusions, tossed together in a half hour, withstand scrutiny better than the PR innuendo emitted by Tesla as an alleged "Safety Report".

I tender that the crucial difference between us is that I have an honest intent to inform on the nitty-gritty reality of AP and thus avoid further unnecessary fatalities (e.g. my own), whereas Tesla's is to obfuscate it, at least until the most treacherous flaws in AP are somehow patched over, in the interests of boosting sales figures.