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When do you think Autopilot 2 will be released?

Discussion in 'Tesla Motors' started by voltronhb, Aug 31, 2016.

?

When do you think Autopilot 2 will be released?

  1. September 2016

    4.5%
  2. October 2016

    20.5%
  3. November 2016

    20.5%
  4. December 2016

    11.4%
  5. Q1 2017

    22.7%
  6. Q2 2017 or after

    20.5%
  1. voltronhb

    voltronhb Member

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    I'm sure we all have predictions of when AP2 will be released. When do you think it will be released and what is your thought process?

    My thoughts are a release will be in October. For Q3, Tesla wanted to stimulate demand by having the 2 year lease, discounts and releasing the 60. The lease special also helped them reduce their new car inventory, which isn't growing much - they don't want to be stuck with old AP1 inventory. For Q4, I expect Tesla to continue to ramp up their Model S and X production. How will they generate demand? They will start reducing their sales cycle and increasing their international footprint. Production will add more cars to their inventory (quicker sales cycle). I don't think this strategy alone is good enough. Unless a new feature is released, Tesla will need to provide more incentives to sell their product.

    By releasing AP2 in Q4, Tesla will be able to generate sufficient demand until the Model 3 release. AP2 will provide enough hardware to have a foundation for continuous software improvements over the next 2-3 years. Also, Elon's recent quote seems to share his confidence (despite the Mobileye breakup), he's still on schedule to release some great products soon... “What we’ve got will blow people’s minds, it blows my mind …it’ll come sooner than people think”

    I have a model S delivering in September so I hope a retrofit is available. :)
     
  2. DriverOne

    DriverOne Member

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    Are you asking about hardware or software? I can envisage the hardware shipping this year, and the software next year.
     
  3. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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  4. voltronhb

    voltronhb Member

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    I'm asking about hardware. :)
     
  5. ShadowR55

    ShadowR55 Member

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  6. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Active Member

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    Don't get your hopes up based on Elon's tweeting today. He's talking about improving the existing radar firmware. That will be nice, and Elon will probably say this update would have saved the life of the guy who plowed into the tractor trailer. BUT, it isn't new hardware.

    New hardware means not only new sensors (the easy and cheap part), but also a new computer/chip set (expensive and time consuming), AND in this case, also new software since they are moving away from using Mobileye's chip set. This is a major undertaking and it won't happen quickly...
     
  7. Dynastar

    Dynastar Member

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    Given how long v7 lasted I think it's safe to assume that v8 is being written to run on old and new AP hardware. There's already been a report that the code to enable AP 1.0-level functionality on AP 2.0 hardware is done.
     
  8. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Active Member

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    Interesting - link?
     
  9. number12

    number12 Member

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    Today around 4PM pacific time
     
  10. Bruin1996

    Bruin1996 Member

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    My totally random guess is either Q1 or Q2 2017 in the S and X followed by AP2 in all Model 3's in late 2017. I am hoping they will be able to do a retrofit in my S but I am doubtful. I am willing to pay up to 15K for a hardware retrofit.
     
  11. LastGas

    LastGas Member

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    Not the best outcmoe for someone whose car finished manufacturing August 31.
     
  12. Bruin1996

    Bruin1996 Member

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    That would be awesome but I think today it is just 8.0 release notes for AP 1.0.
     
  13. number12

    number12 Member

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    Have you picked up car?
     
  14. Vitold

    Vitold Member

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    #14 Vitold, Aug 31, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2016
    Current system is not outdated and it works quite well, plus, Musk thinks it can be made better with software.

    Tesla will keep improving software of the current AP until Model 3 AP is ready. Any hardware changes to current system (except additional cameras) would be obsolete once Model 3 arrives and therefore will probably not happen.

    I would expect Model 3 suite of sensors (and new console) on Model S/X no earlier than 2H 2017. We may see dual front camera earlier but that's pretty much it.

    Alternatively, Tesla could equip current cars with Model 3 sensor suite to make them upgrade-able once system is ready. Nonetheless, I don't expect AP2.0 to be operational until next year.
     
  15. number12

    number12 Member

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    So hold off on $100k cars so $35k car can be perfect and not make $100k cars obselete?
     
  16. Vitold

    Vitold Member

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    #16 Vitold, Aug 31, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2016
    No, I think the new system is not ready yet, mostly because it would require new processor (I'm not talking about Mobileye) that is not yet available.

    Tesla is a small company and needs to conserve it's resources. The less versions of AP hardware the better. Therefore, I think Tesla would hold off with any hardware revisions for as long as they can.
     
  17. LastGas

    LastGas Member

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    I'm on the indefinite "in transit" wait.
     
  18. brkaus

    brkaus Member

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    When will the next thread/poll on "when" show up?
     
  19. LastGas

    LastGas Member

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    Has Tesla actually used the phrase "Autopilot 2.0"?
     
  20. LastGas

    LastGas Member

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    Reminds me of a story of a poll among the Chinese people as to the length of the nose of the emperor (who none of them had ever seen).
     

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