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When in 2020 to get a Model S... Check my thinking

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FutureShock

Best Coast Denizen
Aug 30, 2017
455
480
NorCal
Honestly thought I was gonna get a Model 3 LR, and before the end of the year... then I made the mistake of test-driving a Model S. Yeah, pretty much game over for the 3, good as it is. :oops:

So now, pretty sure I want a base S. I'm resigned to the fact that I won't get the Fed tax credit, which is okay, as I'd rather get some ducks in a row on my home charging situation first anyway (long story), and the busy Holidays are coming up.

So then, when to get the S? This is how I see it, tell me if it's stinkin' thinkin' or no:

Early 2020
Advantages:
Tesla might possibly throw in a 'sweetener' to offset the loss of the Fed tax credit (and Calif tax credit as well, on cars over $60K). Could be a small price cut, free supercharging, whatev. There's also the possibility of some additional improvements, such as further small increases in range and supercharging speed (250 KWh like the Model 3 LR would be nice as the V3 superchargers get built out). Maybe another wheel option, etc. etc.
Disadvantages: Maybe Tesla gives us nothing... and "you'll like it." :( And/or a price increase.

Late 2020
Advantages:
Maybe there'll be some fairly big performance and range enhancements trickling down to the base S from the high-end 'Plaid' S that's due out then. Better driving dynamics/handling too? And finally, at long last, a major interior refresh/upgrade.
Disadvantages: Long time to be without the S. Possibly no Plaid-tech trickle-down. Possible price increase. And any interior refresh may be along the lines of turning the S interior into a '3 interior', complete with no screen behind the steering wheel and a non-dash-integrated main screen... bleah. Looks okay on the 3, but somehow doesn't fly on the S, in my book. :p


That's my take. Am I on the right track? Peace, and Happy Holidays. :cool:
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I think there is another option. Make the purchase of a more reasonable priced model 3 now. Enjoy owning a Tesla. This will give time to determine what they will do in the future on the Model S. I also feel that the Plad may make for an amazing car and besides. waiting on the S only makes it better. Look at the raven options now. Note the new thinner seats. I'm in your boat wanting for the S. I had the 75 RWD two years ago, but sold to buy the wife's model X. Now the wait is based stock pricing the next 3 to 5 years
 
FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) is always an issue when buying a new Tesla. They have a policy of continous improvement. This means that no matter when you make your buy, something better will always be just around the corner.

People try to time their purchases to get the best deal, but the truth is that only Tesla knows for sure the timing of the next new thing.
 
Faced the same dilemma for our old X. Went ahead and sold the X and upgraded to a Raven X for similar reasons:
1. Did not want to wait a year and see further depreciation on the old X.
2. No backup car to drive even if I sold the X and waited.
3. Raven range seems "good enough" now for most trips. New S/X will likely have better range/charging but if they really increase the battery pack size, afraid the cost will be more than I want to spend. More so if you're interested in a P model and they remove the P dual motor option and only offer a P tri-motor.
4. End of third quarter sale + demo unit helped with the decision.
 
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A really big upgrade was recently quietly introduced for the S/X. The internally coded Raven package increased efficiency and range significantly. Putting the more efficient Model 3 motor in the front had many advantages. Helped with range while the legacy rear motor gave it great performance and off the line kick.

The new adaptive suspension is remarkable. Gives both a smoother/quieter ride at cruise plus a much better handling package in sport.

A newer version (6) of the 100 kWh battery allows faster Supercharging, better cooling and more efficiency.
New wheels are available and the interior got a mild refresh and previously optional interior LED lighting became standard.
The HEPA filter became standard as well.

New ceramic bearing technology was made standard and now the cars roll more effortlessly.

The biggest kicker was over a $20,000 reduction in price. For the performance version the previously $20,000 Ludicrious option is now standard.

The Raven package made the S/X quieter, smoother, quicker, more efficient/greater range, less expensive...all at the same time.

For those waiting for the next great refresh...this was it.

Since then only a slightly thinner and more comfortable front seat has been released.

The Plaid package is in the works, but imagine that it will be an expensive upgrade. Offering an additional rear motor, wider rear with wide body rear fenders and greater performance. These items will not "trickle" down into the standard car due to the great extra costs. (maybe the wide body fenders)
 
I love the MS the way it is. For me it’s by far the best car I have ever owned or driven. Waiting seemed more of a risk, free supercharging goes away, they make the interior more like model 3, price increases. Look at the competition. Almost 2x the cost for a Taycan with 145 to 170 miles less range.

I really don’t care what changes are coming. The performance model is wicked fast, a joy to drive, and looks great both inside and out. Even long range is plenty quick.
 
A couple more point about waiting for a new model. Existing MS has the kinks worked out and may have fewer issues than newly designed model. The other risk is they start messing with the suspension. The Raven suspension is about perfect. If they make the suspension more like the Model 3 that would be a deal breaker for me.
 
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A really big upgrade was recently quietly introduced for the S/X. The internally coded Raven package increased efficiency and range significantly. Putting the more efficient Model 3 motor in the front had many advantages. Helped with range while the legacy rear motor gave it great performance and off the line kick.

The new adaptive suspension is remarkable. Gives both a smoother/quieter ride at cruise plus a much better handling package in sport.

A newer version (6) of the 100 kWh battery allows faster Supercharging, better cooling and more efficiency.
New wheels are available and the interior got a mild refresh and previously optional interior LED lighting became standard.

The HEPA filter became standard as well.

New ceramic bearing technology was made standard and now the cars roll more effortlessly.

The biggest kicker was over a $20,000 reduction in price. For the performance version the previously $20,000 Ludicrous option is now standard.

The Raven package made the S/X quieter, smoother, quicker, more efficient/greater range, less expensive...all at the same time.

For those waiting for the next great refresh...this was it.

Since then only a slightly thinner and more comfortable front seat has been released.

The Plaid package is in the works, but imagine that it will be an expensive upgrade. Offering an additional rear motor, wider rear with wide body rear fenders and greater performance. These items will not "trickle" down into the standard car due to the great extra costs. (maybe the wide body fenders)
Thanks Paul, for the very informative post. I was aware of the Raven upgrade, but didn't know about some of the improvements you listed, such as the bearings, lighting, HEPA, etc. So thanks for that.

One small quibble: It's not that recent. Tesla released it back in April.

But I think you're definitely reinforcing the part of my mind that's saying, "Hey man, the Raven S is pretty freakin' awesome. What more do you want?" :cool:

On the Plaid, just saw the pics of the wider rear fenders (aka 'the big booty S' :D ). Not sure I love the look.

Far as Plaid trickle-down goes, yeah, I think you're right, a lot of it won't trickle down to the base S due to cost. But some of it could, such as the bigger/much wider tires and some corresponding handling improvements... assuming the base S will have the same form factor as the Plaid S when it releases ('cuz if it does, not having huge tires to fill out the big booty would look pretty odd).

If that happens, you'd have to think there *could* be some sort of upgrade to the battery pack as well, since those huge wheels and tires will cut range a noticeable amount. But, this is all moot if I don't like the way the Plaid looks, and/or am not willing to wait nearly a year for it anyway. :(

Going Raven would also dodge the bullet of any upcoming '3-ification' of the S interior.

So, it's looking more and more like Raven S FTW.

.
 
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Going Raven would also dodge the bullet of any upcoming '3-ification' of the S interior.

This is one of, if not THE primary reason I ordered a Raven Model S last month. I cannot stand the Model 3 interior and if they were to change the S interior to be more like the Model 3 interior I probably would not have purchased a Model S.

I really hope they leave the things in the Model S interior that make it unique - at least the 17" Portrait Screen integrated into the dash and the Instrument Cluster.

Go for the Raven Model S - you will NOT be disappointed.
 
This is one of, if not THE primary reason I ordered a Raven Model S last month. I cannot stand the Model 3 interior and if they were to change the S interior to be more like the Model 3 interior I probably would not have purchased a Model S.

I really hope they leave the things in the Model S interior that make it unique - at least the 17" Portrait Screen integrated into the dash and the Instrument Cluster.

Go for the Raven Model S - you will NOT be disappointed.

Agreed... As a car guy myself, I prefer the Model S dashboard instead. The 3's interior is cool looking, but if, say, the 2021 MS would have gone that route, I wouldn't have gotten it.
 
I noticed they just increased the price of Model 3 yesterday.

There is probably just as much probability of a price increase as a price decrease.

Tesla is spending tons of money to develop the New Coupe, PLAID configuration, Cybertruck, New factory in China, New factory in Germany, Roll out of the Model Y and FSD. Imagine they are going to need all the cash they can scrape together.

If they become significantly profitable, borrowing cost will also most likely go down.

Current demand is through the roof. Raising prices at this time would certainly make financial sense.
 
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Honestly thought I was gonna get a Model 3 LR, and before the end of the year... then I made the mistake of test-driving a Model S. Yeah, pretty much game over for the 3, good as it is. :oops:

So now, pretty sure I want a base S. I'm resigned to the fact that I won't get the Fed tax credit, which is okay, as I'd rather get some ducks in a row on my home charging situation first anyway (long story), and the busy Holidays are coming up.

So then, when to get the S? This is how I see it, tell me if it's stinkin' thinkin' or no:

Early 2020
Advantages:
Tesla might possibly throw in a 'sweetener' to offset the loss of the Fed tax credit (and Calif tax credit as well, on cars over $60K). Could be a small price cut, free supercharging, whatev. There's also the possibility of some additional improvements, such as further small increases in range and supercharging speed (250 KWh like the Model 3 LR would be nice as the V3 superchargers get built out). Maybe another wheel option, etc. etc.
Disadvantages: Maybe Tesla gives us nothing... and "you'll like it." :( And/or a price increase.

Late 2020
Advantages:
Maybe there'll be some fairly big performance and range enhancements trickling down to the base S from the high-end 'Plaid' S that's due out then. Better driving dynamics/handling too? And finally, at long last, a major interior refresh/upgrade.
Disadvantages: Long time to be without the S. Possibly no Plaid-tech trickle-down. Possible price increase. And any interior refresh may be along the lines of turning the S interior into a '3 interior', complete with no screen behind the steering wheel and a non-dash-integrated main screen... bleah. Looks okay on the 3, but somehow doesn't fly on the S, in my book. :p


That's my take. Am I on the right track? Peace, and Happy Holidays. :cool:
.
Honestly thought I was gonna get a Model 3 LR, and before the end of the year... then I made the mistake of test-driving a Model S. Yeah, pretty much game over for the 3, good as it is. :oops:

So now, pretty sure I want a base S. I'm resigned to the fact that I won't get the Fed tax credit, which is okay, as I'd rather get some ducks in a row on my home charging situation first anyway (long story), and the busy Holidays are coming up.

So then, when to get the S? This is how I see it, tell me if it's stinkin' thinkin' or no:

Early 2020
Advantages:
Tesla might possibly throw in a 'sweetener' to offset the loss of the Fed tax credit (and Calif tax credit as well, on cars over $60K). Could be a small price cut, free supercharging, whatev. There's also the possibility of some additional improvements, such as further small increases in range and supercharging speed (250 KWh like the Model 3 LR would be nice as the V3 superchargers get built out). Maybe another wheel option, etc. etc.
Disadvantages: Maybe Tesla gives us nothing... and "you'll like it." :( And/or a price increase.

Late 2020
Advantages:
Maybe there'll be some fairly big performance and range enhancements trickling down to the base S from the high-end 'Plaid' S that's due out then. Better driving dynamics/handling too? And finally, at long last, a major interior refresh/upgrade.
Disadvantages: Long time to be without the S. Possibly no Plaid-tech trickle-down. Possible price increase. And any interior refresh may be along the lines of turning the S interior into a '3 interior', complete with no screen behind the steering wheel and a non-dash-integrated main screen... bleah. Looks okay on the 3, but somehow doesn't fly on the S, in my book. :p


That's my take. Am I on the right track? Peace, and Happy Holidays. :cool:
.
Well my friend, I’m kind of in the same boat. Although I used to own 2017 Model S 75D and I still own Model 3 LR RW (my better half loves it).
It was nothing wrong with Model S 75D, but I underestimated the range I need. My mistake of course. When you subtract 10% from 100% fully charged (90% is recommended ) and keep at least 10% before reach a charging point and then another 10% for the road, wind and hills and almost 8% degradation, - all of a sudden range became the issue. For long distance of course, local errands are perfectly fine.
So, anything closer to 400 ( or 500 - cybertruck comes to mind) in my radar now.
Happy holidays!
Cheers!
 
I think you're over-thinking this. The current S&X have all the major Raven upgrades, don't sweat any unknown ones in the pipeline. The cars are great as is.

Just buy the car when it is most convenient for you to be getting a new car. The tax incentive is down to only $1750 anyway.

Yeah, definitely leaning towards the base Raven S.

My schedule is such that I’d probably order one sometime around end of January. That also gives Elon about seven weeks to surprise me with a sweetener... or a price increase. o_O

I’m thinkin’ red exterior, cream/tan interior.

Is that just ‘old man style’ and I’m not seein’ it, or does it say something more like ‘classic Ferrari’? Hmm. :cool:
.
 
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Yeah, definitely leaning towards the base Raven S.

My schedule is such that I’d probably order one sometime around end of January. That also gives Elon about seven weeks to surprise me with a sweetener... or a price increase. o_O

I’m thinkin’ red exterior, cream/tan interior.

Is that just ‘old man style’ and I’m not seein’ it, or does it say something more like ‘classic Ferrari’? Hmm. :cool:
.

That's a classic combination for sure. I've never seen a Tesla interior or exterior that looked bad, they are all nice. It's just a matter of what appeals to you! But you're talking to someone who talked his wife into a Pearl White Model 3 with dark upholstery and then, 4 months later when it was time to order mine, I got one that was identical! So, yeah, 2 White with dark seats, both with Aero wheels. Both fantastic cars, one is RWD and the other is Performance but you can't tell them apart unless you press the pedal to the floor!