When in 2020 to get a Model S... Check my thinking

[FutureShock]

I dunno guys... the screen-edge yellowing thing is certainly something to watch out for, but looks like Tesla’s already got a fix.

Red base Raven S order at end of January seems like the plan, unless I hear of or test-drive something better before then.

Not 110% sold on the cream interior though... white looks pretty good too. Tough call.
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[BulldogsRus]

After seeing the Cybertruck and that 17" free-standing screen it has me wondering why they wouldn't bring that over in a refresh. And as I mentioned in another post, the rumored mid-80k base Taycan isn't too far off, and IMHO that interior materials-wise should be superior. I'm hoping this spurs Tesla to refresh both the S and X.

 

[FutureShock]

After seeing the Cybertruck and that 17" free-standing screen it has me wondering why they wouldn't bring that over in a refresh.

This might be a tiny bit off-tangent, but I'm gonna be a (possible) troublemaker here.

My possibly-hated take is this... it's funny how we all decry ppl texting or playing with their smartphones while driving (and rightfully so), BUT, Tesla somehow thinks that the best, most evolved car UI is to push nearly all the functions, even some that are used fairly often, to a big, main center-dash screen that diverts your eyes from the road. AND which may hide some functions you want to use a layer or two down in the menus.

This is safe... how?

At least with the current S, a good amount of info is right there on the small screen behind the wheel, available at a quick downward glance, as it was in 'the old days' with a simple and easily-readable tach, speedo, and fuel gauge right behind the wheel.

I get what Tesla is trying to do, I just question if they're overdoing it, if you follow. Buttons and switches can certainly be ridiculously overused, unaesthetic, confusing, and clutter-y (hello German automakers), but in moderation they're great for often-used functions, especially if designed to fall readily-to-hand/don't increase the driver's workload. And, I'm not at all anxious to see the S UI get '3-ified'... even though I'm sure it will be.

To be clear, love Tesla, but I have to wonder at times how much the 3 UI was adopted in order to be 'superior' to current car UIs, and how much of it was in order to be 'different'/a selling point that dovetailed with the general 'high tech' aesthetic of their cars. Do get that doing almost everything through the screen gives them mad flexibility for the future, but even that should be secondary to the human driving experience.

My take, and my take only. The line to hurl large rocks forms to the right.
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[BulldogsRus]

This might be a tiny bit off-tangent, but I'm gonna be a (possible) troublemaker here.

My possibly-hated take is this... it's funny how we all decry ppl texting or playing with their smartphones while driving (and rightfully so), BUT, Tesla somehow thinks that the best, most evolved car UI is to push all the functions, even some that are used fairly often, to a big, main center-dash screen that diverts your eyes from the road. AND which may hide some functions you want to use a layer or two down in the menus.

This is safe... how?

At least with the current S, a good amount of info is right there on the small screen behind the wheel, available at a quick downward glance, as it was in 'the old days' with a simple and easily-readable tach, speedo, and fuel gauge right behind the wheel.

I get what Tesla is trying to do, I just question if they're overdoing it, if you follow. Buttons and switches can certainly be ridiculously overused, unaesthetic, confusing, and clutter-y (hello German automakers), but in moderation they're great for often-used functions, especially if designed to fall readily-to-hand/don't increase the driver's workload. And, I'm not at all anxious to see the S UI get '3-ified'... even though I'm sure it will be.

To be clear, love Tesla, but I have to wonder at times how much the 3 UI was adopted in order to be 'superior' to current car UIs, and how much of it was in order to be 'different'/a selling point that dovetailed with the general 'high tech' aesthetic of their cars. Do get that doing almost everything through the screen gives them mad flexibility for the future, but even that should be secondary to the human driving experience.

My take, and my take only. The line to hurl large rocks forms to the right.
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Honestly, if you've seen what Ford is doing with their dash:

I think Tesla should follow suit!

 

[tonybelding]

FutureShock, I'm in a very similar position to you. Several months ago I settled my mind on a new Model S LR — just as soon as I get my new garage built, which is just a big flat patch of graded dirt at this moment. At the rate that's going, it doesn't seem like I'll be placing my order until sometime in the new year.

I saw the big review of the Raven version that CNET Roadshow did, and it was almost all positive, except for repeatedly harping on how "dated" and "in dire need of a refresh" the car looks, which made me laugh and laugh. They obviously exist in a different world from where I live.

Since then the only change has been the new seats, which I don't quite know what to make of, since I hadn't heard any complaints about the old ones. It does worry me a little about whether Tesla are going to spring some unwanted surprise at the last minute.

It should be understood that the S will eventually get new battery technology, but I am not sweating over missing out on that. The performance specs are already great for my purposes.

I've also waffled quite a bit over colors. Right now I'm thinking white-on-white, and then have the exterior wrapped in some vivid color like Atomic Teal or Green Envy. I don't want to return to the Supercharger and have any difficulty remembering which car is mine.

 

[SoCalMike]

I think the current Raven Model S is a good choice and I don’t anticipate any major changes besides a 3rd motor for Plaid (Probably at least $25k more), possibly new batteries and possibly 5G cellular connectivity in the next year. I also don’t see the price of the Raven going down in the near future. I love the current design but I’m curious to see how a display might look positioned horizontally in a slightly refreshed dash design just to accommodate a built-in horizontal display (Not sticking up like the Model 3 though).

 

[bob_p]

No matter when you purchase a Tesla (S/3/X/Y), you are guaranteed to start feeling "feature envy" as Tesla continues to introduce improvements. Unlike the other manufacturers, Tesla introduces changes as soon as they are ready, not waiting for a new "model year".

Next year, we should see battery range/performance and supercharging improvements. We'll likely see some interior/exterior changes, especially if that helps to reduced the manufacturing costs.

It's inevitable that Tesla will eventually replace the S/X interior with something like the 3 - eliminating the dashboard display and going with a large landscape display in the center. This reduces manufacturing complexity and cost - plus with Tesla's emphasis on FSD, there will be less need for a driver dashboard display (and no need to invest in HUD).

If you wait until late next year, you'll get some features that aren't available today. But if you wait another year, you'll get even more.

We went through this when deciding on when to order a vehicle to replace our 2012 S P85 - and as each iteration of new features were released, we'd go through a brief period of feature envy and considered ordering a new S. But we held off until Tesla released the configuration we were looking for - AP2 with over 300 miles of range (100D). While the other features were useful, they weren't as important as having a vehicle with the potential for FSD and enough range to reduce charging stops on our most frequent trips.

 

[FutureShock]

Interesting development... Tesla just released a $2,000 ‘Acceleration Boost’ OTA upgrade for the Model 3 Long Range AWD. It improves the 0-60 time to 3.9 seconds (from the previous 4.4 secs).

If something like that is coming for the base Model S (and I’m not saying it is for certain), then there’d be even less reason to wait for any potential trickledown Plaid improvements to the base S circa late 2020.
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[TrevTremaine]

Fortunately for me, I've got another 15 months on lease until I have to make a decision.

Things that I like about my current car that I don't think you'll be able to get currently: sunroof, carbon fiber trim. I've also tinted all my windows including the windshield that makes a huge difference in the heat of the summer (unfortunately, the guy that did the work won't do windshields any more because of someone else who did extensive damage because of water getting into the computer beneath the dash).

Things I am looking forward to because mine doesn't have it: Raven suspension, MCU2 (or better) - I really want the full dashcam and Sentry Mode, motor improvements, battery improvements.

Things I am concerned about: the potential that the IP goes away with the next refresh. If they push that with the change to the center screen I cannot see how the entire screen will be "reachable".

Things I wish they would add in: vented seats, a HUD (especially if they're removing the IP), 360 view overhead view for parking, a forward facing wide angle camera right on the front and a more centrally mounted rear camera on the rear. A wagon option (wishful thinking).

Things I don't give a fig about: games, video channels.

 

[FutureShock]

It's inevitable that Tesla will eventually replace the S/X interior with something like the 3 - eliminating the dashboard display and going with a large landscape display in the center.

This reduces manufacturing complexity and cost - plus with Tesla's emphasis on FSD, there will be less need for a driver dashboard display (and no need to invest in HUD)..

Indeed. Which is why the current Raven S May be the ultimate evolution of the Model S for those of us who basically don’t like the 3 UI/interior... even leaving aside the issue of how far away true FSD really is.

(and I suspect there’s a lot of us in that camp, despite Elon’s protestations to the contrary )

But I 100% agree that ‘3-ification’ is coming, which is all the more reason to get a Raven before then.
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[TrevTremaine]

Honestly, if you've seen what Ford is doing with their dash:
View attachment 488797

I think Tesla should follow suit!

Ford should have named it a Mus-STANK.

 

[FutureShock]

Ford should have named it a Mus-STANK.

Or maybe a Mus-STAKE?
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[evfeh]

I realize why Tesla does the all software and screen strategy. It is cheaper to implement functionality via software than to have separate modules with physical controls.

 

[FutureShock]

Just read an article where high-end automaker Bentley says they’ll jump into the EV market once solid-state batteries become available.

Neato... but that’s like 5-10 years away, lol.

And of course, conventional lithium-ion won’t be standing still in the meantime... aka continual improvements in energy density, cost, safety, longevity, etc. Thus it could even be that, by the time solid-state arrives, the advantages over conventional li-ion won’t be much, if anything.

The takeaway is, unless there’s a very significant improvement that’s going to come available real SOON, waiting and waiting for big breakthroughs is a fool’s errand.

Applies to my purchase, and applies to Bentley’s (lack of an) EV program as well.
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[GiantlyGentle]

I enjoy driving. The first time I took a 3 for a TD, I asked the rep why not add a HUD. He replied, "With FSD, you won't need one." He owns a 3.

 

[FutureShock]

I enjoy driving. The first time I took a 3 for a TD, I asked the rep why not add a HUD. He replied, "With FSD, you won't need one." He owns a 3.

But what if full FSD is a decade away?
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[urilevi8]

Honestly thought I was gonna get a Model 3 LR, and before the end of the year... then I made the mistake of test-driving a Model S. Yeah, pretty much game over for the 3, good as it is.

So now, pretty sure I want a base S. I'm resigned to the fact that I won't get the Fed tax credit, which is okay, as I'd rather get some ducks in a row on my home charging situation first anyway (long story), and the busy Holidays are coming up.

So then, when to get the S? This is how I see it, tell me if it's stinkin' thinkin' or no:

Early 2020
Advantages: Tesla might possibly throw in a 'sweetener' to offset the loss of the Fed tax credit (and Calif tax credit as well, on cars over $60K). Could be a small price cut, free supercharging, whatev. There's also the possibility of some additional improvements, such as further small increases in range and supercharging speed (250 KWh like the Model 3 LR would be nice as the V3 superchargers get built out). Maybe another wheel option, etc. etc.
Disadvantages: Maybe Tesla gives us nothing... and "you'll like it." And/or a price increase.

Late 2020
Advantages: Maybe there'll be some fairly big performance and range enhancements trickling down to the base S from the high-end 'Plaid' S that's due out then. Better driving dynamics/handling too? And finally, at long last, a major interior refresh/upgrade.
Disadvantages: Long time to be without the S. Possibly no Plaid-tech trickle-down. Possible price increase. And any interior refresh may be along the lines of turning the S interior into a '3 interior', complete with no screen behind the steering wheel and a non-dash-integrated main screen... bleah. Looks okay on the 3, but somehow doesn't fly on the S, in my book.


That's my take. Am I on the right track? Peace, and Happy Holidays.
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I thought about it, and I bought 2020 Tesla model S with long range and standard colors, and it got delivered before federal tax expiration. I know, not the big thing, but still It won’t hurt. I will use this money for ceramic coating. Feel very happy now!

 

[FutureShock]

Whoa, check it out... delivery times for the MS (and most other models) have suddenly shot up to 8-11 weeks!

What gives, man?

Or is it just a case of, “No matter WHEN you order this quarter, you’re gonna get it late March, i.e. right before quarter-end. And you’ll LIKE it!”
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[Galinette]

Well, I ordered my S late December 2017, and got it end of March. This is a quite usual delay.

I also think the S/X dash and subtly integrated MCU screen are far superior than that iPad on a stand thrown in the middle of the 3... except maybe for cost and ease of replacement. I hope they never 3ify the model S.

Maybe a well integrated MCU screen associated to a HUD, in an uncluttered 3-like dash and vents, would be the ultimate solution. But it seems there’s no hope Tesla ever adds a HUD.

 

[tonybelding]

But it seems there’s no hope Tesla ever adds a HUD.

Well, somebody just needs to make an aftermarket one! Hmm… I wonder how much info it's possible to pull off the CAN bus in a Model S?