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When is it time to trade in Dual Motor?

Here's a great article that might help you

---------------------------------------------------------------

How long will electric vehicles last?


Since most of them have only been on the market for a short time, we don’t have the evidence we have for gas cars.

There are a few older ones out there - but they were built with tech that’s quite obsolete - so that doesn’t help us. For example, the Nissan Leaf has TERRIBLE battery problems - often requiring a complete battery swap - which ain’t cheap! But that’s because they didn’t know (or didn’t care) that you need to pay careful attention to keeping the battery from getting too cold or too hot. That lesson has now been learned - and I’m pretty sure that all new EV’s have battery heating and cooling systems.

What we DO know comes mostly from Tesla - because they were really the first of the “second-generation” EV’s.

SO WHAT DO WE KNOW?

EV’s have very few moving parts — clearly parts that don’t move tend not to get worn out. There’s a lot less vibration too - and parts that are SUPPOSED not to move - but which do because of vibration would wear out sooner.
  • TESLA test their motors to 1 million miles — and it’s actually not THAT surprising that they can do that without maintenance because most industrial motors of similar size are known to be amazingly reliable.
  • Taxi’s and rental cars —since these are the highest mileage cars - these give us a glimpse into how these newer models will last in ordinary usage. It seems that Tesla’s last for at least 600,000 miles…we don’t know the upper limit yet - but it’s definitely “up there”. Gasoline cars have typical lives of 150,000 to 200,000 miles.
  • Battery Packs don’t (typically) just “fail” — a Tesla battery pack has THOUSANDS of small batteries inside - and if some of them fail, the only effect is that your driving range drops fractionally. So as an EV gets older, we’d expect it’s range to gradually decrease. Although the range may get so short that you don’t find the car practical for your driving style, there will always be poorer people who just need to get their kids to school and get to work and back - and even if your 250 mile range car can now only cover 100 miles between charges - there will be plenty of people wanting a car that (while old and beat up) will ALWAYS start first time - even on cold/wet days.

Since battery range reduction is the biggest issue as the car ages - it’s worth trotting out this graph:

It was created by a group of Telsa owner’s clubs who asked various Tesla owners to submit their car’s mileage and available range as they aged. Because this is real-world data and independent from the car company themselves - it’s widely believed to be very reliable. Every blue dot is a report sent in by an actual car owner. The red line is the average of all cars submitted:

main-qimg-b6be371d6886b20b5654f4e300dd1031-lq


So what you see is that the range drops quickly over the first 50,000 km - going from 100% (or more!) down to 96%. This appears to be due to inherently poor cells (individual batteries out of the thousands in the pack) dying very soon. What remains is a pretty uniform rate of range loss of about 5% over the next 200,000 km.

So at 250,000 km (155,000 miles) - when gasoline cars are just starting to reach the age when they are heading to the car crusher) - you can reasonably expect that your Tesla will still have 90% of the range it had the day it was new.

* At 450,000km (280,000 miles) - when the vast majority of gas cars are dead - you should still have 85% of the original range.

Since the rate of decline appears to be a solid straight line - then at 1 million kilometers (600,000 miles the car should still have 65% of it’s original range - which is probably about the point where it’s value starts to decline sharply. But even a car like my Tesla Model 3 Standard-range Plus - which had 240 mile range when new - will still be able to go 156 miles per charge. That’s not really enough for long road trips - because the distance between superchargers is often a little more than that. But for someone who only needs a car to get to work and back - it’s PLENTY of range…and it’ll still be every bit as reliable as the day you bought it.

So 600,000 miles seems like a fair guesstimate for the point in time when the car isn’t worth much.

BATTERY TECH IS IMPROVING:

Not only are we getting better at making batteries with longer lifespans - we’re also increasing their capacity.

So a 240 mile range car that’s down to only 150 miles of range is starting to become a pain to deal with - a 350 mile range car that’s down to only 230 miles is still a great car that you can drive anywhere.

But better even than that, as Tesla and other companies get more experience with seeing their cars on the road - getting real-world data - they’re becoming more expert at giving advice.

When I got my car 3 years ago, the advice was to charge to only 80% of the max range EXCEPT for rare occasions when you need to stretch the range AND where you intend to start driving the car soon after it finishes charging.

But now, we’re being told that 90% is an OK charge amount - and that charging it to 100% occasionally is actually good for the battery.

These kinds of insights will improve the usability - even for EV’s that are several years old.

THE MILLION MILE CAR?

Since we know the motors in an EV can last for a million miles - and the battery tech is good for at least 600,000 miles - we’re probably going to start seeing million mile cars out there.

That’s literally more miles than an average person drives in their entire lives!

We’re approaching the time when you might buy your kid a car for a graduation present - and they’d be able to own and drive it for their entire lives!
 

Destiny1701

22’ M3LR ‘DrkNite’/ 22’ MYP BliueRocket
Nov 28, 2015
2,021
1,714
Canada
Hi everyone,

This year, I’ve had to drive across Ontario for business, and it looks like I’ll hit 30,000km in one year of driving.

Is there a magic number for kilometres before the Long Range becomes a money pit?

Mariano
Same. Early 2022 M3 LR and already at 30k driven around GTA.

I plan to give this to my daughter when her G2 is done in 2 yrs and she can drive this for 5-6 more yrs easily through rest of hschool and univ.

I’ve had a few teslas since early 2016 with lots of mileage driven. Latest prior to the 3 was a 2018 100D S which I put 125k on in 3 yrs. Still maintenance free even at that point! Longevity for an EV dwarfs most ice cars.
 
Last edited:
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It was created by a group of Telsa owner’s clubs who asked various Tesla owners to submit their car’s mileage and available range as they aged. Because this is real-world data and independent from the car company themselves - it’s widely believed to be very reliable. Every blue dot is a report sent in by an actual car owner.

When I got my car 3 years ago, the advice was to charge to only 80% of the max range EXCEPT for rare occasions when you need to stretch the range AND where you intend to start driving the car soon after it finishes charging.

But now, we’re being told that 90% is an OK charge amount - and that charging it to 100% occasionally is actually good for the battery.
You can't have your cake and eat it. When you check the data many users charge regularly only to 50% (or a similar low SoC). When you filter the data and show the chart by 50% vs. 90% charging you can see the higher charging does have a negative impact on the battery health. Although only a little, when I did the filtering in the past it was 90% vs. 92%. I cannot somehow filter it now in Google Sheets and the charts are broken in LibreOffice Calc.
 
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coleAK

Active Member
Oct 23, 2018
1,134
967
Alaska
Here's a great article that might help you

---------------------------------------------------------------

How long will electric vehicles last?

Since most of them have only been on the market for a short time, we don’t have the evidence we have for gas cars.

There are a few older ones out there - but they were built with tech that’s quite obsolete - so that doesn’t help us. For example, the Nissan Leaf has TERRIBLE battery problems - often requiring a complete battery swap - which ain’t cheap! But that’s because they didn’t know (or didn’t care) that you need to pay careful attention to keeping the battery from getting too cold or too hot. That lesson has now been learned - and I’m pretty sure that all new EV’s have battery heating and cooling systems.

What we DO know comes mostly from Tesla - because they were really the first of the “second-generation” EV’s.

SO WHAT DO WE KNOW?

EV’s have very few moving parts — clearly parts that don’t move tend not to get worn out. There’s a lot less vibration too - and parts that are SUPPOSED not to move - but which do because of vibration would wear out sooner.
  • TESLA test their motors to 1 million miles — and it’s actually not THAT surprising that they can do that without maintenance because most industrial motors of similar size are known to be amazingly reliable.
  • Taxi’s and rental cars —since these are the highest mileage cars - these give us a glimpse into how these newer models will last in ordinary usage. It seems that Tesla’s last for at least 600,000 miles…we don’t know the upper limit yet - but it’s definitely “up there”. Gasoline cars have typical lives of 150,000 to 200,000 miles.
  • Battery Packs don’t (typically) just “fail” — a Tesla battery pack has THOUSANDS of small batteries inside - and if some of them fail, the only effect is that your driving range drops fractionally. So as an EV gets older, we’d expect it’s range to gradually decrease. Although the range may get so short that you don’t find the car practical for your driving style, there will always be poorer people who just need to get their kids to school and get to work and back - and even if your 250 mile range car can now only cover 100 miles between charges - there will be plenty of people wanting a car that (while old and beat up) will ALWAYS start first time - even on cold/wet days.

Since battery range reduction is the biggest issue as the car ages - it’s worth trotting out this graph:

It was created by a group of Telsa owner’s clubs who asked various Tesla owners to submit their car’s mileage and available range as they aged. Because this is real-world data and independent from the car company themselves - it’s widely believed to be very reliable. Every blue dot is a report sent in by an actual car owner. The red line is the average of all cars submitted:

main-qimg-b6be371d6886b20b5654f4e300dd1031-lq


So what you see is that the range drops quickly over the first 50,000 km - going from 100% (or more!) down to 96%. This appears to be due to inherently poor cells (individual batteries out of the thousands in the pack) dying very soon. What remains is a pretty uniform rate of range loss of about 5% over the next 200,000 km.

So at 250,000 km (155,000 miles) - when gasoline cars are just starting to reach the age when they are heading to the car crusher) - you can reasonably expect that your Tesla will still have 90% of the range it had the day it was new.

* At 450,000km (280,000 miles) - when the vast majority of gas cars are dead - you should still have 85% of the original range.

Since the rate of decline appears to be a solid straight line - then at 1 million kilometers (600,000 miles the car should still have 65% of it’s original range - which is probably about the point where it’s value starts to decline sharply. But even a car like my Tesla Model 3 Standard-range Plus - which had 240 mile range when new - will still be able to go 156 miles per charge. That’s not really enough for long road trips - because the distance between superchargers is often a little more than that. But for someone who only needs a car to get to work and back - it’s PLENTY of range…and it’ll still be every bit as reliable as the day you bought it.

So 600,000 miles seems like a fair guesstimate for the point in time when the car isn’t worth much.

BATTERY TECH IS IMPROVING:

Not only are we getting better at making batteries with longer lifespans - we’re also increasing their capacity.

So a 240 mile range car that’s down to only 150 miles of range is starting to become a pain to deal with - a 350 mile range car that’s down to only 230 miles is still a great car that you can drive anywhere.

But better even than that, as Tesla and other companies get more experience with seeing their cars on the road - getting real-world data - they’re becoming more expert at giving advice.

When I got my car 3 years ago, the advice was to charge to only 80% of the max range EXCEPT for rare occasions when you need to stretch the range AND where you intend to start driving the car soon after it finishes charging.

But now, we’re being told that 90% is an OK charge amount - and that charging it to 100% occasionally is actually good for the battery.

These kinds of insights will improve the usability - even for EV’s that are several years old.

THE MILLION MILE CAR?

Since we know the motors in an EV can last for a million miles - and the battery tech is good for at least 600,000 miles - we’re probably going to start seeing million mile cars out there.

That’s literally more miles than an average person drives in their entire lives!

We’re approaching the time when you might buy your kid a car for a graduation present - and they’d be able to own and drive it for their entire lives!
A whole lot that is correct and a whole lot of garbage….

Like “EVs…will ALWAYS start first time - even on cold/wet days.” Teslas have the same type 12v battery as an ICE, the reason ICEs don’t start sometimes in the cold is due to low voltage in The 12v, a tesla can have the same problem with a dead 12v.

Also EVs are mechanically simple but electrically complex. My bet is that circuit boards, wiring harnesses, CPUs,… will be the end of many EVs 10-15 years from now way before motors and batteries.

And mechanically, they are simple but still have: CVS, diffs, racks, gear boxes,…. Over 4 years with my LR AWD and I’m starting to think about my differentials. These cars have a ton of torque, traditional open diffs, and no recommended interval for diff fluid.
 

coleAK

Active Member
Oct 23, 2018
1,134
967
Alaska
One more data point. Tesla claims they've run a Model 3/Y motor to the equivalent of one million miles.
Tesla Shows off Model 3 Drive Unit after One Million Miles of Driving
There are a ton of vehicles that have made it to a million, most often are MB, Volvo, and of course toyota. I’ve driven land cruisers with >500k that have never been driven on road. Not too long ago a lot of press around the million mile tundra, which was an owner in the real world.
 
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Destiny1701

22’ M3LR ‘DrkNite’/ 22’ MYP BliueRocket
Nov 28, 2015
2,021
1,714
Canada
The oldest Model 3s are only about 4-5 years old, so no one knows what the long term reliability will be.
Given there are high mileage model S’s from 2013 still running quite well and with older tech, one may be able to extrapolate as data.
And that’s based on early versions that had a lot of initial quality issues ie. motors, battery, suspensions, sunroofs, handles, vibrations

Model 3’s have also changed dramatically from 2018 launch to todays 2023 vins arriving. Not as much exterior as mechanically, parts improvements, better suspension, lighting, motors, battery etc

Safe to say reliability long term may be better now than in prior years even. (I’m not speaking about initial QA coming off the production line and odd panel gaps/paint etc)
 
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drtimhill

Active Member
Apr 25, 2019
3,509
4,538
Seattle
The oldest Model 3s are only about 4-5 years old, so no one knows what the long term reliability will be.
True, but reliability is related to two things: aging of components and wearing out of components with use. For cars, its mostly the latter: a car will "wear out" based around miles driven rather than how many years old the car is, so you can make informed predications by looking at those cars that happen to have high mileage. Of course, this is a very inexact science, as others have noted.
 

afadeev

Active Member
Feb 28, 2019
1,278
1,460
NYC
Hi everyone,

This year, I’ve had to drive across Ontario for business, and it looks like I’ll hit 30,000km in one year of driving.

Is there a magic number for kilometres before the Long Range becomes a money pit?

Mariano
Between 30-50K miles, suspension components start to let go.
First the front upper control arms (should fail within warranty period, if you are lucky). Then the shocks. Basically, the usual mechanical / suspension stuff that's common to all the cars. Well, maybe Model 3's suspension components wear a bit faster, due to the extra weight and Tesla's inexperience.

Given your commute pattern, you are an ideal customer to drive EV's wheels off.
The more you drive, the greater the variable cost savings.
Go for it, and keeps up posted with your progress!

a
 
Hi everyone,

This year, I’ve had to drive across Ontario for business, and it looks like I’ll hit 30,000km in one year of driving.

Is there a magic number for kilometres before the Long Range becomes a money pit?

Mariano
To be honest I simply do not know....probably no one does now.

We keep vehicles till the "wheels fall off". We do not purchase a vehicle looking at when to trade it in.

"Money Pits" come in all varieties! Trust me.....when I say this.....My wife of almost 30 years....had a Pontiac 6000.....what a MONEY PIT! SOLD that POS as soon as we could!!!!

IMHO, we purchased our 2022 M3LR fully expecting it will last for a VERY long time. Will see how this plays out!

Kind of a funny story but our 250K 2005.5 Jetta TDI blew its turbo a year ago. We elected to "Gift/Sell" it to my friend for $600. IMMACULATE condition but we figured it was time for a new car for my wife. Could we have replaced it's turbo for a couple grand.....YES! But after tons of time it made sense for us to move on.

Again....I am not sure someone can give you a "RIGHT" answer for YOUR situation. I hate to say it but "it depends".
 
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