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When is Lutz going to shut up?

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Do you really think GM is going to lower the price of the Bolt to get it $10K under the 3 and make enough of them to try and compete with Tesla?

The scenario is that Tesla won't have that $7500 federal incentive while others will still have. That $10k difference comes with the incentive, so they don't need to lower their prices that much.

And this is really just thought, a possibility that could happen IMO. Even I'm not 100% sure about that, but I think there's a marginal chance to this scenario.
 
The scenario is that Tesla won't have that $7500 federal incentive while others will still have. That $10k difference comes with the incentive, so they don't need to lower their prices that much.

And this is really just thought, a possibility that could happen IMO. Even I'm not 100% sure about that, but I think there's a marginal chance to this scenario.
Either way it helps with Elon's goal of accelerating a transition to EVs.
 
1. Yes, they are loosing money, however, this comes to the huge investments in the Giga Factoy and Superchargers. These investments wil pay off very soon.

The law of conservation of money and energy: Money cannot be destroyed, it can only be converted into other forms, such as gigafactories. :)

Tesla isn't losing money, it's investing it.
 
Everyone with similar critics as Bob Lutz misses a couple of things:
1. Yes, they are loosing money, however, this comes to the huge investments in the Giga Factoy and Superchargers. These investments wil pay off very soon.
2. Elon's ambition was always to make the best car possible which happen to be electric. Declining oil prices will have less of an effect than Bob Lutz is predicting. You see that now already with the increase of reservations for the MS and huge reservation pool for the MX. Tesla is hot and people just want one, no matter what the fuel is.
3. When properly marketed the M3 will be a huge hit. Not because it is electric but because it is a Tesla. People love the silence of the car and the acceleration. With Gigafactory in place M3 will be profitable.
4. The business model with selling direct. Bob Lutz is telling us that it is incredible expensive. How can this be more expensive if you have franchised dealer who have their costs too and need to make a profit as well? With Tesla's model there is one company in the process of selling the car, only one time profit is needed. In the dealer model there are at least two (with importers overseas sometimes even three) independent companies involved, who all need to make money on the transaction.

1) When Bob Lutz was the head of GM, the company was hemorrhaging money from fixed costs that could not be altered except by taking the company through bankruptcy. Tesla's fixed costs are very low and their losses are almost all R&D and capital investment. He either doesn't understand the difference, or he chooses not to understand the difference.
2) Tesla is the only PHEV or BEV that has not been affected by oil prices (at least in the US). The monthly plug in scorecard on insideevs.com (http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/) shows every car on the list with any sales above noise levels the Model S is the only one that saw any appreciable increase in 2015. The BMW i3 is the only other one I see had increased sales in 2015, but that was mostly because it didn't hit the market until May 2014. There were 4 months in 2014 where the i3 sold over 1000, but only two months of 1000+ sales in the full year or 2015. Tesla is the only car brand out there who has interest from people who aren't eco or incentive buyers. The Model S and X are competing head to head with ICE cars in their price range and winning on merit. The dip in oil prices may have slowed Tesla sales a tiny bit, but most people who can afford a Model S or X aren't going to worry about being able to pay for a full tank of gas on a big SUV either regardless of gas prices. The people who are most affected by gas prices are the poor driving a used car or a very cheap new car because they can't afford anything better.
3) Tesla is getting a reputation akin to Apple. Anything they produce causes a stir. The Model 3 will get a lot of serious looks from mid-range car buyers who would never consider any other kind of electric car because it's a Tesla and it will likely be not only electric, but have very good performance too.
4) Bob Lutz bases his experience on selling cars direct on an experiment BMW did when he was high up in BMW America in the late 70s, 15 years before anybody but a relative handful of geeks had ever heard of the internet. Selling cars is expensive, but the traditional model pushes the risk off onto franchised dealers who will lose the money on turkey cars nobody wants. That's why Lutz always brings this up, but most of the companies he worked for had a lot of turkeys dealers had to figure out how to move.

Compared to Tesla car, most cars on the market today are not very inspiring to the car buying public. Car makers are slowly adding new features all the time and tweaking things, but nothing has jazzed car buyers like Tesla has in a long time. Occasionally a new car comes along that becomes hard to get for a while and people scramble to buy them. Even a few fools end up paying more than the sticker price to get one before anyone else. But those are few and far between. Most cars won't move without incentives of some kind and it's rare for a car to sell for the full sticker price. Tesla has only had two incentive deals which only amounted to $1000 to the buyer, and the vast majority of Teslas have been sold to consumers at full sticker price with no discounts.

Tesla is in a position every car maker would like to be in, but most probably have never been that in demand, ever. Tesla doesn't need dealers because they don't need to maintain a large supply of cars consumers are tepid about. They presell most cars. Who needs dealers when you have customers knocking down your door with minimal advertising?

Bob Lutz fundamentally does not understand Tesla and some people listen to him because he's an old hand in the car business. I think he's also kind of bitter because his last legacy at GM was the Volt which he wanted to make a pure EV, but got talked out of it. His people convinced him people wouldn't buy a pure EV, and if someone goes and proves that decision wrong (which Tesla is doing), then his last project at GM is tainted and just a footnote in history instead of an advancement of the technology as it was intended. Lutz can't admit Tesla might be right because then he'd be wrong.
 
1) When Bob Lutz was the head of GM, the company was hemorrhaging money from fixed costs that could not be altered except by taking the company through bankruptcy. Tesla's fixed costs are very low and their losses are almost all R&D and capital investment. He either doesn't understand the difference, or he chooses not to understand the difference.
2) Tesla is the only PHEV or BEV that has not been affected by oil prices (at least in the US). The monthly plug in scorecard on insideevs.com (http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/) shows every car on the list with any sales above noise levels the Model S is the only one that saw any appreciable increase in 2015. The BMW i3 is the only other one I see had increased sales in 2015, but that was mostly because it didn't hit the market until May 2014. There were 4 months in 2014 where the i3 sold over 1000, but only two months of 1000+ sales in the full year or 2015. Tesla is the only car brand out there who has interest from people who aren't eco or incentive buyers. The Model S and X are competing head to head with ICE cars in their price range and winning on merit. The dip in oil prices may have slowed Tesla sales a tiny bit, but most people who can afford a Model S or X aren't going to worry about being able to pay for a full tank of gas on a big SUV either regardless of gas prices. The people who are most affected by gas prices are the poor driving a used car or a very cheap new car because they can't afford anything better.
3) Tesla is getting a reputation akin to Apple. Anything they produce causes a stir. The Model 3 will get a lot of serious looks from mid-range car buyers who would never consider any other kind of electric car because it's a Tesla and it will likely be not only electric, but have very good performance too.
4) Bob Lutz bases his experience on selling cars direct on an experiment BMW did when he was high up in BMW America in the late 70s, 15 years before anybody but a relative handful of geeks had ever heard of the internet. Selling cars is expensive, but the traditional model pushes the risk off onto franchised dealers who will lose the money on turkey cars nobody wants. That's why Lutz always brings this up, but most of the companies he worked for had a lot of turkeys dealers had to figure out how to move.

Compared to Tesla car, most cars on the market today are not very inspiring to the car buying public. Car makers are slowly adding new features all the time and tweaking things, but nothing has jazzed car buyers like Tesla has in a long time. Occasionally a new car comes along that becomes hard to get for a while and people scramble to buy them. Even a few fools end up paying more than the sticker price to get one before anyone else. But those are few and far between. Most cars won't move without incentives of some kind and it's rare for a car to sell for the full sticker price. Tesla has only had two incentive deals which only amounted to $1000 to the buyer, and the vast majority of Teslas have been sold to consumers at full sticker price with no discounts.

Tesla is in a position every car maker would like to be in, but most probably have never been that in demand, ever. Tesla doesn't need dealers because they don't need to maintain a large supply of cars consumers are tepid about. They presell most cars. Who needs dealers when you have customers knocking down your door with minimal advertising?

Bob Lutz fundamentally does not understand Tesla and some people listen to him because he's an old hand in the car business. I think he's also kind of bitter because his last legacy at GM was the Volt which he wanted to make a pure EV, but got talked out of it. His people convinced him people wouldn't buy a pure EV, and if someone goes and proves that decision wrong (which Tesla is doing), then his last project at GM is tainted and just a footnote in history instead of an advancement of the technology as it was intended. Lutz can't admit Tesla might be right because then he'd be wrong.

Very well argued. I would add that Tesla also does no traditional advertising, which must also make them the envy of the traditional auto industry All sales are essentially by word of mouth, free promotion, and the power of the brand, which is quite incredible. The young kids in my neighborhood all know about Tesla, wave when I drive by, and flock to the car when given a chance -- that's the future.
 
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The scenario is that Tesla won't have that $7500 federal incentive while others will still have. That $10k difference comes with the incentive, so they don't need to lower their prices that much.

The Model 3 will still get the fed tax credit for 2017 and probably most of 2018. The credit is in full effect until 200k US sales, then I think it's still in full effect for the next quarter of sales, then it starts to decrease each quarter, or something like that. Remember GM is using up their credits as well with the Volt, ELR, and Spark.
 
The ELR and Spark aren't selling, it's really only the Volt that is using up GM's credits.

Lutz was wrong if he aimed the Volt at a pure EV in 2009. Lithium battery costs were still very high, and the controllers and motors were also more expensive. In order for him to build a pure EV in 2010, it would have Range Anxiety if they were to keep the base price to $40k. Sub 100 mile range.

Lutz apparently is still working with Via Motors to produce large pickups and vans with dual mode power like the Volt. So if he was actually Pure EV, he's not showing it very well.

I do wonder if Tesla offered a <$10,000 option for 200 miles of emergency gasoline range, if some folk would buy the option, akin to the i3 concept, except with the Tesla, the emergency range is significant. They would still run virtually on pure EV power, but gain the ability to go anywhere, any time a gas car can. Yes, blasphemy, but practical blasphemy.
 
...

I do wonder if Tesla offered a <$10,000 option for 200 miles of emergency gasoline range, if some folk would buy the option, akin to the i3 concept, except with the Tesla, the emergency range is significant. They would still run virtually on pure EV power, but gain the ability to go anywhere, any time a gas car can. Yes, blasphemy, but practical blasphemy.

Blasphemy or not, it also alters the fundamental architecture of the vehicles Tesla designs. I suppose you could figure out a way to fit something small into the frunk area, with air intake and exhaust all located at the front of the car.

This is simultaneously the genius, and in your "practical blasphemy" view, limitation of how Tesla designs vehicles. The car's architecture is such that there isn't anywhere for a fuel tank, exhaust, or gas engine to be located. That doesn't mean it can't be retrofitted and squeezed in somewhere. Only that the car is designed under the premise that it isn't present.


"Flexible" vehicle architectures that can work with any or many energy sources and conversion processes has a good ring on a Powerpoint slide. It ends up pulling a bunch of compromises into a vehicle design that don't add value though.
 
The ELR and Spark aren't selling, it's really only the Volt that is using up GM's credits.

Lutz was wrong if he aimed the Volt at a pure EV in 2009. Lithium battery costs were still very high, and the controllers and motors were also more expensive. In order for him to build a pure EV in 2010, it would have Range Anxiety if they were to keep the base price to $40k. Sub 100 mile range.

Lutz apparently is still working with Via Motors to produce large pickups and vans with dual mode power like the Volt. So if he was actually Pure EV, he's not showing it very well.

I do wonder if Tesla offered a <$10,000 option for 200 miles of emergency gasoline range, if some folk would buy the option, akin to the i3 concept, except with the Tesla, the emergency range is significant. They would still run virtually on pure EV power, but gain the ability to go anywhere, any time a gas car can. Yes, blasphemy, but practical blasphemy.

Exactly, which is I why I am so disappointed at the disdain showed towards the Volt by many in this community. It got a lot of people, including myself, to at least consider an EV with peace of mind and it has eliminated the use of more fuel than any other vehicle out there save two (Model S and Leaf IMO).

In the end though, who cares what Lutz says? Tesla really does have the structural advantage going forward to accomplish the goal of transitioning to an EV passenger fleet and they strive to be more than just a vanilla car company.
 
I do wonder if Tesla offered a <$10,000 option for 200 miles of emergency gasoline range, if some folk would buy the option, akin to the i3 concept, except with the Tesla, the emergency range is significant. They would still run virtually on pure EV power, but gain the ability to go anywhere, any time a gas car can. Yes, blasphemy, but practical blasphemy.

Actually it's impractical blasphemy since Tesla customers don't want it, and it would distract the company from it's intended mission. If Tesla wants to take up the space and added weight of an ICE and all it's support systems they could just add a few hundred more pounds of cells. However as Musk recently said in Paris there isn't that much need for more range to make it worthwhile carrying around all that extra battery weight. He did talk about the possibility of a battery pack on a trailer that could be hooked up on those rare occasions, presumably rented.
 
The law of conservation of money and energy: Money cannot be destroyed, it can only be converted into other forms, such as gigafactories. :)

I'd like to ask for a chance to demonstrate that I actually can destroy money... large piles of money... :tongue:

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Blasphemy or not, it also alters the fundamental architecture of the vehicles Tesla designs. I suppose you could figure out a way to fit something small into the frunk area, with air intake and exhaust all located at the front of the car.

This sort of blasphemy was called a Fisker Karma. Didn't do too well...
 
I don't think the question is "When is Lutz going to shut up?" but instead "When will the media going to shut up about Lutz?"

The guy is 83 years old, slightly senile, and got into the auto scene before seat belts were invented; Why would the media be putting him on air everywhere to

talk about a high
tech startup. I don't blame to old guy for trying to hold on to his last attempt at relevance, I hope I'm not in diapers at his age.
 
Bob Lutz gives two reasons for his argument as to why Tesla will continue to struggle with negative bottom-line numbers. The first is slowing demand for electric vehicles (EVs) on the back of falling oil prices. The second is growing competition that will cut into Tesla’s margins as prices for EVs fall.

Reason 1 is BS. There are more reasons why people want to buy EVs than the oil price. It's simply the better driving experience. The demand will increase in the future.

Reason 2... I am afraid he has a point there. There will be competition in the future (not right now - but from 2018 on).

Audi decided not long ago to build the Audi Q6 E-Tron (SUV, 95 kWh battery, 300 miles range, 150 kW charging) in Brussel, Belgium. The batteries will come from a new LG Chem factory which is currently getting build for € 300 million in Breslau, Poland.

2018 Audi Q6 e-tron PREVIEW as Audi e-tron quattro concept electric 500km range - YouTube

Audi Q6 e-Tron Quattro Electric Car Production Site In 2018 Chosen
Google Übersetzer
Google Übersetzer

But Tesla has two more years to fortify their position in the market. If they get the Model 3 right, everything is good and nobody will remember Bob Lutz' statement.
 
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Reason 1 is BS. There are more reasons why people want to buy EVs than the oil price. It's simply the better driving experience. The demand will increase in the future.

Reason 2... I am afraid he has a point there. There will be competition in the future (not right now - but from 2018 on).

Audi decided not long ago to build the Audi Q6 E-Tron (SUV, 95 kWh battery, 300 miles range, 150 kW charging) in Brussel, Belgium. The batteries will come from a new LG Chem factory which is currently getting build for € 300 million in Breslau, Poland.

2018 Audi Q6 e-tron PREVIEW as Audi e-tron quattro concept electric 500km range - YouTube

Audi Q6 e-Tron Quattro Electric Car Production Site In 2018 Chosen
Google Übersetzer
Google Übersetzer

But Tesla has two more years to fortify their position in the market. If they get the Model 3 right, everything is good and nobody will remember Bob Lutz' statement.

A lot of the EVs available now from mainstream car makers are not that impressive. They are cramped compromise cars that have poor cargo space and performance that isn't worth writing home about:
http://insideevs.com/plug-vehicle-cross-section-acceleration-30-mph-60-mph-ev-mode/

The Spark has the same 0-60 time as my Buick with a V-8, only Tesla and the i3 beat it and the i3 only by a small margin. Tesla doesn't have other cars in their line up that will be hurt by a successful EV, so they can make an EV that unleashes all the potential. And the majority of car buyers out there are unaware of just how much better Tesla is. I didn't know when I first started shopping for a car a year ago.

As for the Audi, the capacity of that plant in Poland is only 50,000 battery packs a year. Assuming they all go to Audi (probably not considering LG Chem's commitments to other companies), that limits the Q6 e-tron to 50,000 a year. It will be introduced in a year when Tesla is producing about 150,000-200,000 Model S and X and will be on the ramp up of Model 3 production. Shortly after the Q6 is introduced Tesla is going to be hitting the 500.000 car a year limit at the Fremont plant. How is a car limited to 50,000 a year going to put much of a dent in sales of a company producing 10X that much?
 
Isn't he like 240 years old? I believe he will shut up when he dies. He's one of those people who wanted to keep lead in fuel, and asbestos in everything else.

Attack his ideas, not his age.

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To answer the topic question: When he dies.

He can be bought, if Elon hires him to spew positives for tesla , he
would . Pay him with way out of the money options .